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Old 04-20-2005, 09:15 AM   #16
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Originally posted by A_Wanderer
No, you are citing a twisted figure used in a lancet survey that applied an epidemilogical statistic method to war casualties and did a cluster survey of deaths that gave extremely far out results, the 95% CI of that survey was 8000 to 195,000 ~ the survey was 95% sure that casualties were between 8,000 and 195,000, the 100,000 figure was announced by just splitting the difference. Even the upper band of that inflated set of figures is less than those murdered by Saddam.

Check out these links for more.

Read the last article, it outlines the problems with the Lancet survey which appears to have become an article of faith in certain circles.

I've read those and unfortunately, while the Lancet study has certain defficiencies, it's still a study based on a sample of households in 33 neighbourhoods. Whiel the CI is large, there's no reason to suggest that the numbers are "inflated". A large CI does not eliminate the likelyhood of the mean falling in towards the middle of the curve, as the scientists have reported.

The other sources are not studies. They are simply observations and because of their simple counting criteria, they lack all the information not reported and thus it loses huge amounts of data. That includes the unidentified/unhospitalized and the bodies that never made it to a morgue and a million other scenarios. It's the same problem with official crime stats. They only count reported crime (which is about 30%). These sites, in particular IBC, loses huge amounts of data. The Lancet study provides insight into the missing data.

Most importantly, the US has only been in Iraq for 2 years. Saddam was in power for 2 decades. Already the numbers are beginning to become comparable. And the Lancet Study was published in october 2004. The death toll has only climbed since. And according to the BBC, the violent death rate continues to climb and is already higher than before the war.

Sure the study has limitations, but they come nowhere near the massive limitation of simple counting.


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Old 04-26-2005, 07:12 AM   #17
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sometimes people take the most appealing list of "facts" to mislead.

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Old 04-27-2005, 07:04 PM   #18
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Old 05-01-2005, 07:06 PM   #19
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Haha that cartoon is so true! Some of our equipment is in horrid condition while a lot of our leadership has all the comforts they can get.

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