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Old 06-10-2008, 12:59 PM   #46
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nevermind.

anyway, new polls have Obama up a good 6 points over McCain.

i predict -- and it's just a prediction, lots can happen -- that McCain never gets any closer than this and we'll start to hear about "Obama Republicans."
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:11 PM   #47
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^I can understand a small to medium group of moderate Obama Republican voters. I will never understand the phenomenon of Reagan Democrats. Maybe it's just because I wasn't alive during his presidency, but I've never seen anything that Reagan stood for or enacted during his time in office that would appeal to anyone, but the small fraction of the most conservative of Democrats
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:19 PM   #48
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gay marriage is about number 200 on my list.
It is toward the top of my list
> of things that government can do something about.

and I am pleased, that this November
it is starting to look like the gay marriage ban on the ballot
will be rejected by voters of the largest state in the country.
A state that represents 12-13% of the population.
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Old 06-10-2008, 07:43 PM   #49
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nevermind.

anyway, new polls have Obama up a good 6 points over McCain.

i predict -- and it's just a prediction, lots can happen -- that McCain never gets any closer than this and we'll start to hear about "Obama Republicans."
Gallup's national poll actually has Obama up 7 points today. But, victory is always based on the electoral college, and I can still see McCain winning there despite losing the popular vote.
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Old 06-10-2008, 07:49 PM   #50
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^I can understand a small to medium group of moderate Obama Republican voters. I will never understand the phenomenon of Reagan Democrats. Maybe it's just because I wasn't alive during his presidency, but I've never seen anything that Reagan stood for or enacted during his time in office that would appeal to anyone, but the small fraction of the most conservative of Democrats
After 4 years of Reagan, the American public gave Reagan the greatest electoral landslide in US history. In 1984, Reagan won every state in the country, except for Minnesota which was Mondale's state. But Reagan only lost Minnesota by 3,671 votes. People all across the country in every state supported his defense build up and efforts to turn the US economy around.
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Old 06-10-2008, 08:57 PM   #51
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McCain does not support gay marriage. Neither does Obama.

Their differences on civil unions are shades of gray....to be fair McCain may have been tacking a little right coming out of the primaries. But I would guess that this is not a top 5 issue for the voters in my neck of the woods.
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Old 06-10-2008, 09:06 PM   #52
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McCain does not support gay marriage. Neither does Obama.
You're correct, but the Democratic Party has been behind a whole slew of gay rights legislation that is long overdue. Even Australia, which has two political parties that are probably as conservative as ours, still allows foreign gay partners to immigrate, for instance, without gay marriage.

This is, ultimately, where the "states' rights" logic falls apart. There is certain authority that is vested in the federal government that not even 50 individual states can trump. There are considerable rights that can pass, while still ducking the issue of marriage completely.

McCain and the Republican Party, predictably, will not to a damn thing to further even basic gay rights and protections, and I consider that to be unacceptable.
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Old 06-10-2008, 09:11 PM   #53
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^I can understand a small to medium group of moderate Obama Republican voters. I will never understand the phenomenon of Reagan Democrats. Maybe it's just because I wasn't alive during his presidency, but I've never seen anything that Reagan stood for or enacted during his time in office that would appeal to anyone, but the small fraction of the most conservative of Democrats
Very true on Reagan. He was a hard core right winger who was just the mouthpiece for others' agendas. Nothing he did objectively, from a policy standpoint, appealed at all to any Democrats or even most Republicans if you look at what the party is supposed to stand for. The Democrats disliked his cuts in social security, medicare,medicaid, education, police and fire, his trickle down economics, his deficits, etc. The Republicans, if they had stuck to their principles, should have disliked his use of industrial policy, his massive deficit spending, his protectionism(auto quotas, farm subsidies). Reagan did nothing to reduce the size and role of government and had a higher average unemployment rate than Nixon, Ford or Carter throughout his terms. The economy only came back for a brief period between 1984-86, and while there was strong growth, that would have happened no matter what as we were coming out of a SEVERE 11% unemployment, 21%interest rate recession in 1981-82. Unemployment never really dropped below 6% until 1988, and that was for a brief period before we hit the next recession.

Reagan's appeal came from the same place Obama's appeal comes from, frankly, even though I will be voting Obama. It is all about personality and star power, not issue positions. People thought Reagan was a good guy, charming, actor, etc so he appealed to them. All he had to do was engage in some 'change' populism(sound familiar?) in 1980 as things were just in the crapper between Iran, gas prices, the economy. Did not matter whether it was Carter's fault or not(many reasons it was not, legitimately, but that is another discussion), people just knew they wanted to shake things up in Washington, hence Reagan. 1984- Reagan was vulnerable and unpopular, or had been in 1982 and 83 for sure- the Democrats were just stupid and failed to capitalize by putting up a good candidate. Mondale was old news, establishment, had been VP when things were bad in the late 1970s, he was not going anywhere.

So Reagan's policies did not appeal to blue collar Democrats, his personality did. The term Reagan Democrat is just a pundit buzzword that is supposed to refer to people who crossed to Republicans in the 1980s, but as we have seen those were all over the place-suburbanites, independents, urban blue collars, etc. It does not however, refer to all of these people, it is used by the media to refer specifically to anti gun control, anti gay marriage blue collar Democrats living in rural areas.
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Old 06-10-2008, 09:27 PM   #54
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^Thanks for the extra background. In terms of policy, though, I think Obama is much stronger and much more in tune with what the average American middle class voter needs and wants. They're much more focused on the common good than Reagan's asinine trickle-down economics policy or ridiculous expensive and unnecessary Star Wars defense policy, for example. Reagan was charming and charismatic, for sure, but he didn't have the vision or the or the ability to inspire like Obama does. I'm not a starry-eyed blind sheep, but Obama's authenticity and hope, backed up with sensible policy goals are worth believing in.
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Old 06-10-2008, 09:29 PM   #55
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McCain does not support gay marriage. Neither does Obama.

Their differences on civil unions are shades of gray....to be fair McCain may have been tacking a little right coming out of the primaries. But I would guess that this is not a top 5 issue for the voters in my neck of the woods.



Melon pretty much nailed it, but the laser focus on a specific issue misses the point that the two parties are miles apart on the overall issue of gay rights -- the Republicans have used gay people as scapegoats for any number of issues, and use us as veritable Willie Hortons whenever it's useful to scare up some votes in rural SE Ohio.

at least the Democrats acknowledge our existence -- ever heard Bush say the word "gay" out loud?

and Reagan will never, ever be forgiven for his total indifference in the early days of AIDS.
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Old 06-10-2008, 10:51 PM   #56
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Very true on Reagan. He was a hard core right winger who was just the mouthpiece for others' agendas. Nothing he did objectively, from a policy standpoint, appealed at all to any Democrats or even most Republicans if you look at what the party is supposed to stand for. The Democrats disliked his cuts in social security, medicare,medicaid, education, police and fire, his trickle down economics, his deficits, etc. The Republicans, if they had stuck to their principles, should have disliked his use of industrial policy, his massive deficit spending, his protectionism(auto quotas, farm subsidies). Reagan did nothing to reduce the size and role of government and had a higher average unemployment rate than Nixon, Ford or Carter throughout his terms. The economy only came back for a brief period between 1984-86, and while there was strong growth, that would have happened no matter what as we were coming out of a SEVERE 11% unemployment, 21%interest rate recession in 1981-82. Unemployment never really dropped below 6% until 1988, and that was for a brief period before we hit the next recession.
Thats not true at all. Many Democrats in Congress joined with Reagan in passing numerous bills. The term Reagan Democrats also refers to Democrats in congress who supported Reagan. Democrats had the majority in Congress for most of the Reagan administration. Republicans and many Democrats supported Reagans policies on the military and US foreign policy. They also supported his economic policies. Thats why after four years of Reagan, he had the largest electoral victory in US history. Even today, multiple polls of historians consider Reagan to be one of the ten greatest US Presidents in history. Real US GDP growth per capita grew by an amazing 21.4% during the Reagan years, the largest 8 year rate of growth, adjusted for inflation, with the exception of the Kennedy/Johnson years since World War II to that point. Its only slightly below the rate of growth during the Clinton years at 21.7%.


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Reagan's appeal came from the same place Obama's appeal comes from, frankly, even though I will be voting Obama. It is all about personality and star power, not issue positions. People thought Reagan was a good guy, charming, actor, etc so he appealed to them. All he had to do was engage in some 'change' populism(sound familiar?) in 1980 as things were just in the crapper between Iran, gas prices, the economy. Did not matter whether it was Carter's fault or not(many reasons it was not, legitimately, but that is another discussion), people just knew they wanted to shake things up in Washington, hence Reagan. 1984- Reagan was vulnerable and unpopular, or had been in 1982 and 83 for sure- the Democrats were just stupid and failed to capitalize by putting up a good candidate. Mondale was old news, establishment, had been VP when things were bad in the late 1970s, he was not going anywhere.
You don't win with the landslides that Reagan had on personality alone. Reagans policies appealed to millions of Republicans, Independents and Democrats. Reagan succeeded in getting much support from Congress even though the Democrats were in control. Its not just working class Democrats thinking he was charming. It does not matter if one thinks Mondale was a weak candidate, you don't win by those margins unless people support your policies.
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Old 06-10-2008, 10:58 PM   #57
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^Thanks for the extra background. In terms of policy, though, I think Obama is much stronger and much more in tune with what the average American middle class voter needs and wants. They're much more focused on the common good than Reagan's asinine trickle-down economics policy or ridiculous expensive and unnecessary Star Wars defense policy, for example. Reagan was charming and charismatic, for sure, but he didn't have the vision or the or the ability to inspire like Obama does. I'm not a starry-eyed blind sheep, but Obama's authenticity and hope, backed up with sensible policy goals are worth believing in.
You may think Star Wars defense system was ridiculous, but the technology from that system has been used by the military to substantially improve the military's ability to defend itself from Ballistic Missile attack. Israel, the US military and Saudi Arabia all benefited from the technology in the first Gulf War, and during Operation Iraqi Freedom, US anti-ballistic missile batteries routinely shot down Iraqi short range ballistic missiles launched into Kuwait including one that was headed directly for the CENTCOM command center in Kuwait. Reagan's produced one of the strongest GDP per capita growth rates since World War II. Even today he is considered to be one of the greatest Presidents of all time by the general public and routinely ranks in the top 10 of polls of historians on who the greatest Presidents in US history have been. Obama won't come anywhere near the electoral and popular vote victories that Reagan had if he wins in November. Many Democrats may think Obama is the Messiah, but the rest of the country does not feel that way.
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Old 06-14-2008, 10:04 AM   #58
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nevermind.

anyway, new polls have Obama up a good 6 points over McCain.

i predict -- and it's just a prediction, lots can happen -- that McCain never gets any closer than this and we'll start to hear about "Obama Republicans."
Nice prediction, but its already inaccurate after 3 days.

Gallup Daily: Obama 46%, McCain 43%

June 13, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama 46%, McCain 43%


Looks like Obama's little bounce from finally winning the nomination might already be over.
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Old 06-14-2008, 11:59 AM   #59
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It's still 142 days till the election. I would say it's a bit too early to discuss every percentage point change one poll finds out.
From a profit maximization point of view I would be curious if it really makes sense to conduct so many polls even now. If they polled every three days, it would be 43 polls for each agency till election day. And prices they could charge probably would go down between now and Convention Day as well as between Convention Day and the final phase of election time as people care less and less about whether it's now 42 to 26 or 43 to 47 or 41 to 49 or whatever.

But well, I digress.
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Old 06-14-2008, 12:18 PM   #60
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Nice prediction, but its already inaccurate after 3 days.



Looks like Obama's little bounce from finally winning the nomination might already be over.
I was surprised to hear multiple pundits say that it was a much smaller bounce than expected. The RCP average has Obama up by only about 3.6. I too would have expected it to be higher one week after winning the nomination.
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