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Old 02-15-2010, 03:47 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
but will the tea partiers push the far right though the primaries, only to loose in the general?

and who will their nominee be in 2012? it's fair to speculate that their influence will be much different over the course of the next three years, but could they put up with a Romney or a Jeb Bush? or is only Palin acceptable?
I think you will accept that the 2008 election had some 'left wing' wing nuts, their preferred candidate may have been a Ralph Nader or Dennis Kucinich or some other
some would consider the ANSWER crowd a 'wing nut' group

well, these people were passionate, and I believe the huge majority of them were so united against Bush, that they showed up and voted for Obama, who was positioning himself to be more of a moderate than Hillary, you do recall his pledge to end the partisan bickering and that he would work with and even appoint Republicans?

I can't say for sure how all of this will play out.

I do think it is wrong to dismiss right wing - wing nuts

Just like the GOP did with left wing - wing nuts.

To answer your question directly, at the end of the primaries and conventions, I think it is likely the 'tea partiers' will be united in the 'greater good' of stopping Obama, that they would vote for a Romney - (? insert good pick here) ticket.
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Old 02-15-2010, 03:52 PM   #122
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i think it's false to equivocate between the American far left and the American far right.
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Old 02-15-2010, 04:07 PM   #123
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I expected to get that
sooner than later

it seems like anytime anyone puts up examples in here
the response is that it is not the same thing

two different events or people are never the exact same

and seldom if ever is there an exact one for one exchange

One might say that 'third party' candidate Ross Perot affected the 1992 Presidential election and that in 2000 Ralph Nader's 3rd party candidacy did the same.

So the response is that they were not similar and their supporters were not equivalent?

The premise is that a 3rd party candidate can affect the out come of a election.
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Old 02-15-2010, 04:21 PM   #124
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The Tea Party people supporting Republicans defeats the entire premise of the Tea Party. I thought they were tired of the two parties, so wanted to break away. Som of the Republicans simply changed their verbiage to make it sound like more Tea Party like, but hey whaddya know, back to Square 1.
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Old 02-15-2010, 04:27 PM   #125
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I wouldn't vote for Palin, and this is coming from a conservative republican. I would want to see someone like Mitt Romney or even Scot Brown.
Good to hear one of you say this.

I was watching Chris Matthews the other night and he asked a few people he had on if there was anyone in the party who could take her on, out shine her, etc. That guest said John Kaisch(sp) and Haley Barbour both could. Matthews immediately responded by saying "great, good to hear that, I may not agree with or vote for those guys, but I know they're smart, reasonable people who would represent their party well."

I will say the same for Romney and Brown. I find Brown to be much more likable than Romney who I find to be extremely disingenuous, but neither one is a dangerous, empty headed and highly corrupt ideologue who accuses their opponents of being socialists and running death panels.

Brown and Romney could talk for a while about any number of issues facing the country. Palin has no clue and I would think would be an embarrassment to any Republican that remembers people as smart as Nixon, Kissinger, Chuck Hagel, William Cohen, Brent Scowcroft, James Baker, John Warner, etc. I am not saying I agree with all of these guys, but how does a party go from having people like this as their public face to having someone like Palin?
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Old 02-15-2010, 04:37 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by deep View Post
I think you will accept that the 2008 election had some 'left wing' wing nuts, their preferred candidate may have been a Ralph Nader or Dennis Kucinich or some other
some would consider the ANSWER crowd a 'wing nut' group

well, these people were passionate, and I believe the huge majority of them were so united against Bush, that they showed up and voted for Obama, who was positioning himself to be more of a moderate than Hillary, you do recall his pledge to end the partisan bickering and that he would work with and even appoint Republicans?

I can't say for sure how all of this will play out.

I do think it is wrong to dismiss right wing - wing nuts

Just like the GOP did with left wing - wing nuts.

To answer your question directly, at the end of the primaries and conventions, I think it is likely the 'tea partiers' will be united in the 'greater good' of stopping Obama, that they would vote for a Romney - (? insert good pick here) ticket.
I think history is on your side, but that there is a big question mark going into 2012 with the Tea Party.

The history: despite the far right screaming and yelling and threatening to stay home on McCain, it appears as if they were out for him in full force by the time the summer of 2008 hit. Into the fall, and then they voted for him in November. Did Palin help? That is a big question also.

There are also plenty of other examples of the far left or the far right showing up for the more moderate guy in the general, even if not enthusiastically.

The big question: The Tea Party, a whole new movement, bent on challenging many sitting Republicans in primaries, is a lot more passionate and better organized than the various right wing ideologues who complained about the "too moderate" general candidates before. Will they hold their noses and vote to get Obama out, or will they, after losing the primary, split off as their own party and make a full run at it?

Doing so would probably only help Obama by taking votes away from Romney or Jeb, but if NY 23 is any indicator, the Tea Baggers do not care about that.

Of course, the only thing that really matters in all of this is independents. That is what made the difference for Obama. The Tea Party and mainstream Republicans alone can not be enough to defeat Obama, especially given the advantage Democrats have in voter registration. Whoever wins will obviously have to bring independents with their own party.
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Old 02-15-2010, 06:47 PM   #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Pac_Mule View Post
I wouldn't vote for Palin, and this is coming from a conservative republican. I would want to see someone like Mitt Romney or even Scot Brown.
Brown isn't even considered conservative by some types...
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Old 02-15-2010, 06:55 PM   #128
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Brown is a 'tea party' victory.

They were fired up and ready to go.

There was a momentum flow in 2008

There is a momentum flow in 2010.
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Old 02-15-2010, 07:07 PM   #129
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Brown is a 'tea party' victory.
Which shows me they aren't the "principaled" group they try and come off as...

Both Rush and Beck say he's far too moderate, he voted for socialist healthcare at the state level.

Brown was an opportunitist and used them, and vice versa.
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Old 02-15-2010, 07:19 PM   #130
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Well, Ok
it is things like that that win elections
principles are really just a load of rubbish, anyway

again 2008 was more of a coalition againt Bush Cheney than anything else
look at all the elections, since then, the Dems have pretty much had their clocks cleaned

good chance Obama's Senate seat and even Biden's could end up in GOP hands,
to lose those 2 along with Kennedy's seat two years after 2008 landslide will one of the quickest reversals I can ever recall.

just callin it as I am seeing it,
not leading with how I will vote or want the outcomes to be.
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Old 02-15-2010, 07:52 PM   #131
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at this point I will even say Hillary's Senate seat could go GOP in November.
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Old 02-15-2010, 10:14 PM   #132
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deep, if what you are trying to say is that the climate appears to be favorable to the GOP, then i think everyone in America agrees with you.
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Old 02-16-2010, 01:45 PM   #133
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deep, if what you are trying to say is that the climate appears to be favorable to the GOP, then i think everyone in America agrees with you.

It took 8 years of one of the worse Presidencies in U S history for the Dems to gain 8 Senate seats in 2008.

And only two years for a complete reversal?


What I am saying is that I am surprised by how quick this reversal might come.

Quote:
Senator Bayh's Domino Effect
Democrats could wind up with only 52 Senate seats.

By JOHN FUND

Political handicappers Larry Sabato and Nate Silver both projected recently that if the November election were held today, Democrats would wind up with only 52 Senate seats, a net loss of seven. Evan Bayh's sudden retirement yesterday is prompting most observers to give Republicans an edge to capture his vacant seat, which would mean a net loss of eight Democratic seats.

Such a setback isn't unprecedented. In "wave" elections, one party tends to win all of the close races -- in 2008 Democrats captured eight seats from Republicans by running the table on competitive Senate seats.
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Old 02-16-2010, 02:00 PM   #134
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this is the worst economic crisis since the 1930s.

when the economy is good, incumbents win. when the economy is bad, incumbents lose. see 1994.

and the true awfulness of Bush didn't settle in and become common knowledge until roughly 2005, and in 2004 and 2002 we were still scared to death that the only thing standing between us and another 9/11 was Bush/Cheney.

i fully expect that the Democrats are going to lose big in the fall. i think they deserve to -- not because of their legislation (HCR is a model of moderation) but because they're pathetic.

Obama himself remains in solid shape, politically. the silver lining in this, as i see it, and despite my dashed dreams of substantive change that would actually reduce suffering, more divided government might eventually lead to better governance like we saw in the middle Clinton years (1995-1998).
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Old 02-16-2010, 02:14 PM   #135
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Obama himself remains in solid shape, politically. the silver lining in this, as i see it, and despite my dashed dreams of substantive change that would actually reduce suffering, more divided government might eventually lead to better governance like we saw in the middle Clinton years (1995-1998).
I'm not sure we can hope that for this group of Republicans. I wasn't old enough to follow the Clinton years, but they can't have been as batshit insane as the Republicans today.
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