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Old 04-28-2010, 12:09 AM   #826
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Originally Posted by HBK-79 View Post
Why wouldn't Texas, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and (I guess) Colorado and New Mexico become semi-solid blue?

I mean- Every time I visit those states, most people I see are Hispanic/Latino, African American, and Asian American.
I'm assuming you're being sarcastic? But why would race equate to Blue or Red?
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Old 04-28-2010, 12:12 AM   #827
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Hispanics and Blacks vote decisively for the Democratic party. Blue.
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Old 04-28-2010, 12:19 AM   #828
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Hispanics and Blacks vote decisively for the Democratic party. Blue.
Didn't you just point out the fact that hispanics in Florida primarily vote Republican?

Hispanics in TX aren't as hardlined Blue.

And I've never really seen any numbers on Asian Americans

So my point was be careful with certain lines of logic.

Especially since this posters observations in visiting Utah, Colorado, TX and Ariznona were a little(very much) off...
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Old 04-28-2010, 12:27 AM   #829
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Cubans don't consider themselves Hispanic, they think they are better.

Asians do break for Dems, but not that high. Vietnamese lean GOP.

And I also wondered what parts of those states he visited that left those impressions.
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Old 04-28-2010, 12:37 AM   #830
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Cubans don't consider themselves Hispanic, they think they are better.
But by most definitions Hispanic encompasses Cubans...


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Originally Posted by deep View Post
And I also wondered what parts of those states he visited that left those impressions.
I have a buddy of mine who is black and a stand up comic and he always jokes(after going on a ski trip) about how he avoids states like Utah and Colorado who's major past time is white people wearing masks and carrying sticks...
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Old 04-28-2010, 09:24 AM   #831
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I believe some majority quantity of Hispanics tend to vote Dem, but implement a seemingly racist law and those numbers should grow.

And yes, Cubans are their own demographic category.
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Old 04-28-2010, 09:45 AM   #832
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The U.S. Office of Management and Budget currently defines "Hispanic or Latino" as "a person of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race".
Hispanic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 04-28-2010, 02:23 PM   #833
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why, the Tea Party even got Charlie Crist to bat for the other team:

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Report: Crist Will Make Independent Senate Bid
Eric Kleefeld | April 28, 2010, 1:43PM

It's nearly official: Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) will bolt the GOP and run for Senate as an independent, the St. Petersburg Times and Fox News each report. This much-expected event will drastically shake up a top Senate race in this perennial swing state, which has become more intriguing than anybody could have imagined a year ago.

The St. Petersburg Times reports that Crist has notified key financial backers of his decision. Crist has already announced that he will make his as-yet undisclosed decision official tomorrow, one day before the April 30 filing deadline.

The TPM Poll Average for the Republican primary gives Marco Rubio a lead of 59.1%-27.9% over Crist, the opposite of where things were a year ago. Meanwhile, the poll average for a three-way general election only gives Rubio a narrow lead with 33.8% of the vote, followed by an independent Crist at 27.8%, and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek with 22.5%.

Crist is expected to announce his decision at 5 p.m. tomorrow in his hometown of St. Petersburg.

Crist's decision to bolt from the GOP seems to have been in the works for weeks now. Several prominent Republicans have backed Rubio -- including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Vice President Dick Cheney, and others who already endorsed Crist have hinted that they won't support him as an independent.

The state Republican party has been prepping for Crist's possible defection too, warning its high-ranking committee members in a letter that that if a Republican runs as an independent, the "party loyalty oath" requires that members must formally revoke their support of him.
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Old 04-28-2010, 02:44 PM   #834
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Originally Posted by deep on 04-26-2010, at 03:25 PM View Post
getting back on topic: Tea Party

they get all the credit for ending Charlie Crist



and are on their way to putting FL firmly in GOP column again, too early to call 2012, but they have the momentum
I posted that a couple of days ago ^

Rubio will win primary
and easy win in Nov.


Crist is over and out.
Tea Party took him out.

Obama chances for FL in 2012 are looking less good as more time goes on,

Unless he wins on a large margin like Clinton did in 96.

Unfortunately (or fortunately) Obama is no Clinton.
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:05 PM   #835
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Crist wins the general.
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:12 PM   #836
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He will do poorly. If anything he should split the GOP and the Dem should win. I still say Rubio wins.

I will wager 5000 of my 16,984 Total Posts count.
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:17 PM   #837
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It's an interesting race to watch.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Rubio's Path Easiest, Crist's Challenging, in Potential Three-Way Race

3-way races are tough to call, especially this early.
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:20 PM   #838
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really?

I called it some time ago.
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:22 PM   #839
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Originally Posted by deep View Post
really?

I called it some time ago.
5000 posts is nothing. A true Daily Double is all of it.


There still is the money issue in the Republican Party in Florida, too. If more comes of that, it could favor Meek.
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Old 04-28-2010, 05:32 PM   #840
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
Crist wins the general.
Either him or Meek.

Rubio will not have much of a chance. He is a right wing nut running in what will be a three way with a popular Republican/Independent Governor and an effective, moderate African American Democratic Congressman.

Florida is a perennial swing state, obviously. However, when it leans Democratic or leans Republican, it never does so to extremes.

So right wing nut Rubio in what is ultimately an extremely pragmatic state(in my experiences, anyway, I spend a lot of time there) will not do as well as people think.

Plus, foaming at the mouth, inexperienced State legislator over effective AG and Governor and effective Democratic Congressman? Who is better suited to the Senate? Who knows how deal making works? Who has the vital connections to avenues of power? These are the questions Florida voters will ask.

I highly doubt Florida will answer these questions with "Rubio." Its not an ideological state in either direction.

As for whether Obama will win in 2012 in Florida, no one knows. Impossible to determine, too much will happen between now and then.

I'd just point out that Obama got it by a much better margin than Bush did in 2004, and he won a lot of Republican leaning counties in Florida. Also, Democrats have widened their voter registration advantage in the State and much was made of many young Cubans in the Miami area breaking with their parents and grandparents and voting for Obama.
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