The Tea Party

[Bluer White]

How much of the 'stimulus' has been spent so far? Half?

 

[deep]

saving the rest for the Nov elections
we need to spend it where it will do the most good (get the desired results)

 

[AEON]

saving the rest for the nov elections
we need to spend it where it will do the most good (get the desired results)

lol

 

[Irvine511]

saving the rest for the Nov elections
we need to spend it where it will do the most good (get the desired results)

this is quite correct. watch it all kick in this summer.

 

[deep]

getting back on topic: Tea Party

they get all the credit for ending Charlie Crist

Charlie Crist and the End of Incumbency
Andrew Belonsky :: Monday, April 26th, 2010 1:45 pm

Charlie Crist once held court as a Republican darling. The Florida Governor’s name had been bandied about as a potential running mate for John McCain, 2012 and just a few months ago looked like a shoe-in for the party’s Senatorial nomination. Now he may run as an independent. The Crist situation illustrates what may be the end of incumbency as we know it, and the Democrats best take notice.

By the end of this week, Crist’s fate will have been decided. The Governor has confirmed reports that he may reject the Republican label and run as an independent, thanks in part to official opposition from his party peers and to a chummy appearance with President Obama last year, which conservative take as an act of betrayal. Rob Jesmer of the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent out a memo last week insisting that Crist’s friends must pressure him to exit the race.

“We believe there is zero chance Governor Crist continues running in the Republican primary,” explained Jesmer. “It’s our view that if Governor Crist believes he cannot win a primary then the proper course of action is he drop out of the race and wait for another day.” Challenger Marco Rubio, a newcomer who has tremendous Tea Party support, has now become the party’s Floridian poster boy and received endorsements from party power players like Dick Cheney, Mitt Romney and Dick Armey. Incumbents are far too unfashionable for official support.

and are on their way to putting FL firmly in GOP column again, too early to call 2012, but they have the momentum

 

[kramwest1]

getting back on topic: Tea Party

they get all the credit for ending Charlie Crist



and are on their way to putting FL firmly in GOP column again, too early to call 2012, but they have the momentum

We'll see what the Latin vote makes of any immigration reform/new state laws though. The GOP/Tea Partiers can't alienate (< see what I did there) Latinos/Hispanics or they'll never win much of anything again.

 

[deep]

most of FL Latins are Cuban and trend heavy GOP
plus they have special status, with immigration

 

[martha]

I hope the idiot TPs make all the Republican candidates too conservative and scare the shit out of normal people. Then Democrats can win.

 

[kramwest1]

most of FL Latins are Cuban and trend heavy GOP
plus they have special status, with immigration

Oh, I know about FL and Cubans, but with Hispanics being the fastest growing group in the U.S., the Republicans could be in trouble in many states--AZ and FL, not to mention CA, NV, UT, TX. Plus, I don't know what percentage of FL's population is of Cuban heritage, but you have to believe it has been or will be eclipsed by Hispanics from other places in Latin America and the rest of the U.S.

If AZ's law goes into effect and any legal Hispanic is hassled, I think there will be a fairly united response from their community.

 

[martha]

Oh, I know about FL and Cubans, but with Hispanics being the fastest growing group in the U.S., the Republicans could be in trouble in many states--AZ and FL, not to mention CA, NV, UT, TX. Plus, I don't know what percentage of FL's population is of Cuban heritage, but you have to believe it has been or will be eclipsed by Hispanics from other places in Latin America and the rest of the U.S.

If AZ's law goes into effect and any legal Hispanic is hassled, I think there will be a fairly united response from their community.

Republicans underestimated Cali's Hispanic population once. It didn't go quite the way they hoped it would. Most analysts here say the Repubs are still suffering somewhat for their mistakes.

 

[deep]

Oh, I know about FL and Cubans, but with Hispanics being the fastest growing group in the U.S., the Republicans could be in trouble in many states--AZ and FL, not to mention CA, NV, UT, TX. Plus, I don't know what percentage of FL's population is of Cuban heritage, but you have to believe it has been or will be eclipsed by Hispanics from other places in Latin America and the rest of the U.S.

If AZ's law goes into effect and any legal Hispanic is hassled, I think there will be a fairly united response from their community.

CA is solidly Dem
UT and TX are solid GOP
AZ is in no danger of going Dem, even with this legislation.

NV not sure, they say Harry Reid is in serious trouble, GOP could pick him off this Nov.

 

[kramwest1]

CA is solidly Dem
UT and TX are solid GOP
AZ is in no danger of going Dem, even with this legislation.

NV not sure, they say Harry Reid is in serious trouble, GOP could pick him off this Nov.

But you're talking only national and state-wide elections.

It's got to be considered on a local level, too. There are places in Texas that are fairly blue, largely due to the Hispanic populations. Those places start to add up, especially if they are rural areas. Republicans generally don't fair well in large cities, they need the suburbs and rural areas to win on a state-wide level (and therefore nationally, too).

This next census tally will really tell us a lot. The redistricting that follows will be interesting.

 

[HBK-79]

Why wouldn't Texas, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and (I guess) Colorado and New Mexico become semi-solid blue?

I mean- Every time I visit those states, most people I see are Hispanic/Latino, African American, and Asian American.

 

[Irvine511]

I mean- Every time I visit those states, most people I see are Hispanic/Latino, African American, and Asian American.

by courting the racists, the GOP has cut it's future short. the Southern Strategy will only hold for so long.

(though it's admittedly worked pretty well from 1964-2004)

 

[deep]

by courting the racists, the GOP has cut it's future short. the Southern Strategy will only hold for so long.

(though it's admittedly worked pretty well from 1964-2004)

Southern Strategy did not kick in until around 70-72 elections.
and held just fine in 2006 and 2008, without it anti-Bush vote would have given Dems even bigger margins.

Bush won't be as big of a deal in 2012, it is only a question of how big anti Obama vote will be.

 

[BVS]

Why wouldn't Texas, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and (I guess) Colorado and New Mexico become semi-solid blue?

I mean- Every time I visit those states, most people I see are Hispanic/Latino, African American, and Asian American.

I'm assuming you're being sarcastic? But why would race equate to Blue or Red?

 

[deep]

Hispanics and Blacks vote decisively for the Democratic party. Blue.

 

[BVS]

Hispanics and Blacks vote decisively for the Democratic party. Blue.

Didn't you just point out the fact that hispanics in Florida primarily vote Republican?

Hispanics in TX aren't as hardlined Blue.

And I've never really seen any numbers on Asian Americans

So my point was be careful with certain lines of logic.

Especially since this posters observations in visiting Utah, Colorado, TX and Ariznona were a little(very much) off...

 

[deep]

Cubans don't consider themselves Hispanic, they think they are better.

Asians do break for Dems, but not that high. Vietnamese lean GOP.

And I also wondered what parts of those states he visited that left those impressions.

 

[BVS]

Cubans don't consider themselves Hispanic, they think they are better.

But by most definitions Hispanic encompasses Cubans...

And I also wondered what parts of those states he visited that left those impressions.

I have a buddy of mine who is black and a stand up comic and he always jokes(after going on a ski trip) about how he avoids states like Utah and Colorado who's major past time is white people wearing masks and carrying sticks...

 

[kramwest1]

I believe some majority quantity of Hispanics tend to vote Dem, but implement a seemingly racist law and those numbers should grow.

And yes, Cubans are their own demographic category.

 

[BVS]

The U.S. Office of Management and Budget currently defines "Hispanic or Latino" as "a person of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race".

Hispanic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Irvine511]

why, the Tea Party even got Charlie Crist to bat for the other team:

Report: Crist Will Make Independent Senate Bid
Eric Kleefeld | April 28, 2010, 1:43PM

It's nearly official: Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) will bolt the GOP and run for Senate as an independent, the St. Petersburg Times and Fox News each report. This much-expected event will drastically shake up a top Senate race in this perennial swing state, which has become more intriguing than anybody could have imagined a year ago.

The St. Petersburg Times reports that Crist has notified key financial backers of his decision. Crist has already announced that he will make his as-yet undisclosed decision official tomorrow, one day before the April 30 filing deadline.

The TPM Poll Average for the Republican primary gives Marco Rubio a lead of 59.1%-27.9% over Crist, the opposite of where things were a year ago. Meanwhile, the poll average for a three-way general election only gives Rubio a narrow lead with 33.8% of the vote, followed by an independent Crist at 27.8%, and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek with 22.5%.

Crist is expected to announce his decision at 5 p.m. tomorrow in his hometown of St. Petersburg.

Crist's decision to bolt from the GOP seems to have been in the works for weeks now. Several prominent Republicans have backed Rubio -- including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Vice President Dick Cheney, and others who already endorsed Crist have hinted that they won't support him as an independent.

The state Republican party has been prepping for Crist's possible defection too, warning its high-ranking committee members in a letter that that if a Republican runs as an independent, the "party loyalty oath" requires that members must formally revoke their support of him.

 

[deep]

getting back on topic: Tea Party

they get all the credit for ending Charlie Crist



and are on their way to putting FL firmly in GOP column again, too early to call 2012, but they have the momentum

I posted that a couple of days ago ^

Rubio will win primary
and easy win in Nov.


Crist is over and out.
Tea Party took him out.

Obama chances for FL in 2012 are looking less good as more time goes on,

Unless he wins on a large margin like Clinton did in 96.

Unfortunately (or fortunately) Obama is no Clinton.

 

[Irvine511]

Crist wins the general.

 

[deep]

He will do poorly. If anything he should split the GOP and the Dem should win. I still say Rubio wins.

I will wager 5000 of my 16,984 Total Posts count.

 

[kramwest1]

It's an interesting race to watch.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Rubio's Path Easiest, Crist's Challenging, in Potential Three-Way Race

3-way races are tough to call, especially this early.

 

[deep]

really?

I called it some time ago.

 

[kramwest1]

really?

I called it some time ago.

5000 posts is nothing. A true Daily Double is all of it.


There still is the money issue in the Republican Party in Florida, too. If more comes of that, it could favor Meek.

 

[U2387]

Crist wins the general.

Either him or Meek.

Rubio will not have much of a chance. He is a right wing nut running in what will be a three way with a popular Republican/Independent Governor and an effective, moderate African American Democratic Congressman.

Florida is a perennial swing state, obviously. However, when it leans Democratic or leans Republican, it never does so to extremes.

So right wing nut Rubio in what is ultimately an extremely pragmatic state(in my experiences, anyway, I spend a lot of time there) will not do as well as people think.

Plus, foaming at the mouth, inexperienced State legislator over effective AG and Governor and effective Democratic Congressman? Who is better suited to the Senate? Who knows how deal making works? Who has the vital connections to avenues of power? These are the questions Florida voters will ask.

I highly doubt Florida will answer these questions with "Rubio." Its not an ideological state in either direction.

As for whether Obama will win in 2012 in Florida, no one knows. Impossible to determine, too much will happen between now and then.

I'd just point out that Obama got it by a much better margin than Bush did in 2004, and he won a lot of Republican leaning counties in Florida. Also, Democrats have widened their voter registration advantage in the State and much was made of many young Cubans in the Miami area breaking with their parents and grandparents and voting for Obama.