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Old 11-07-2012, 03:31 PM   #841
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let's give Fox credit,
I had 3 networks on, I went back with the DVR and Fox called it for Obama first by several minutes. That was objective. Rove lost it because only after that did the other networks follow. The Fox brain trust? room, would not back down or be intiminated by Rove.

Win for Fox News credibility, fair first and balanced.
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Old 11-07-2012, 03:37 PM   #842
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That's not true. NBC definitely called it first - it was fairly obvious if you were following Twitter. I wasn't sure about the exact order so I looked it up. Here it is:

Quote:
NBC — 11:12 p.m.
MSNBC — 11:12 p.m.
CBS — 11:16 p.m.
Fox — 11:16 p.m.
CNN — 11:18 p.m.
Fox News — 11:18 p.m.
The Daily Show — 11:21 p.m.
ABC — 11:23 p.m.
The Colbert Report — 11:35 p.m.
The times each network called the election for Obma | PopWatch | EW.com
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Old 11-07-2012, 03:37 PM   #843
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When the moment came, sure Fox did okay (I mean, if you consider chasing down their data team because Karl Rove might throw a tantrum to be journalism par excellence). But leading up to that they had all manner of pundits proclaiming a potential landslide for Romney. How many times did they have Dick "I've never been right in my life" Morris on? Not to mention the narrative they formed quite early for their viewers that Obama is a radical extremist destroying the fabric of American society.

What yesterday should have been (but of course won't be, even in the face of such drastic cognitive dissonance) was the bursting of the sealed-from-reality conservative media bubble.
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Old 11-07-2012, 03:42 PM   #844
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So Dick does see the changing demographics, but he also blames Governor Christie and Hurricane Sandy.

Quote:
I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.
In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.
But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.
It made all the difference.
A key element of Romney’s appeal, particularly after the first debate, was his ability to govern with Democrats in Massachusetts. Obama’s one-party strident approach, so much the opposite of what he pledged in his first national speech in 2004, had turned voters off. But by working seamlessly with an acerbic Republican Governor like Christie, Obama was able to blunt Romney’s advantage in this crucial area.
Sandy, in retrospect, stopped Romney’s post-debate momentum. She was, indeed, the October Surprise. She also stopped the swelling concern over the murders in Benghazi and let Obama get away with his cover-up in which he pretended that a terrorist attack was, in fact, just a spontaneous demonstration gone awry.
Obama is the first president in modern times to win re-election by a smaller margin than that by which he was elected in the first place. McKinley, Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton all increased their re-election vote share significantly. Obama’s dropped from a 7 point margin over McCain to a 1 point margin over Romney.
That he could get re-elected despite his dismal record is a tribute to his brilliant campaign staff and the shifting demographics of America. This is not your father’s United States and the Republican tilt toward white middle aged and older voters is ghettoizing the party so that even bad economic times are not enough to sway the election.
By the time you finish with the various demographic groups the Democrats win, you almost have a majority in their corner. Count them: Blacks cast 13% of the vote and Obama won them 12-1. Latinos cast 10% and Obama carried them by 7-3. Under 30 voters cast 19% of the vote and Obama swept them by 12-7. Single white women cast 18% of the total vote and Obama won them by 12-6. There is some overlap among these groups, of course, but without allowing for any, Obama won 43-17 before the first married white woman or man over 30 cast their vote. (Lets guess that if we eliminate duplication, the Obama margin would be 35-13) Having conceded these votes, Romney would have had to win over two-thirds of the rest of the vote to win. He almost did. But not quite.
If Romney couldn’t manage this trick against Obama in the current economy, no Republican could....
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Old 11-07-2012, 03:44 PM   #845
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I actually thought Shep Smith did a good job, particularly in calling out some of the insanity being spewed by the pundits, and criticizing Romney for delaying the concession speech.
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Old 11-07-2012, 03:47 PM   #846
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Yeah, Fox was most definitely not first. I know because I was on the air and credited NBC.
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Old 11-07-2012, 03:56 PM   #847
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Diemen View Post
One of my favorite tweets from last night:

"Republicans should feel betrayed by a conservative media that told them what they wanted to hear instead of what was happening."
The Atlantic has a story on this.

How Conservative Media Lost to the MSM and Failed the Rank and File - Conor Friedersdorf - The Atlantic

I know a lot of conservatives who were blindsided by this. My own Mother just last week was telling me that Romney was going to win comfortably and another family friend cite Dick Morris. I countered with Nate Silver, but they responded that his numbers were wrong.

Going into yesterday I was confident. I still got all nervous as the returns started to come in, but when MI and PA were called, I knew it was over because they went just as the 538 model said.
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Old 11-07-2012, 04:13 PM   #848
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Quote:
"I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker."
That was more than a squeaker, Mr. Morris. But I understand that you have difficulty interpreting data.
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Old 11-07-2012, 04:18 PM   #849
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
That's not true. NBC definitely called it first - it was fairly obvious if you were following Twitter. I wasn't sure about the exact order so I looked it up. Here it is:

NBC — 11:12 p.m.
MSNBC — 11:12 p.m.
CBS — 11:16 p.m.
Fox — 11:16 p.m.
CNN — 11:18 p.m.
Fox News — 11:18 p.m.
The Daily Show — 11:21 p.m.
ABC — 11:23 p.m.
The Colbert Report — 11:35 p.m.



The times each network called the election for Obma | PopWatch | EW.com

Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
I think Fox called it first
they called it at 8:13 pm
CNN called it at 8:18 pm
ABC called it at 8:24 pm
.

Just to make this clear, as I have no agenda than to say what my own eyes told me. I have TWC where I have two tuners that I can switch back and forth and reverse to see when each network made the official call. I watched those and made a note. Then went to a second tv I had on that runs through a TIVO that can be backed up and played, I watched that network and made a note when it made the official call. All three of these come in on my cable that have a menu with time on it.

That is how I did my report on the three networks and when they called it.

I will say the writer of the article agrees with me on ABC and CNN, She clearly lies on Fox News, by 5 minutes, not a reasonable margin of error (one minute) Based on that I don't trust her calls the two she says were before the FOX NEWS call I saw at 8:13 that she claims came in 1 minute earlier on MSNBC. Twitter really, not really worth discussing. Since many twitter tweats are just plain bullshit.
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Old 11-07-2012, 04:20 PM   #850
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So his prediction of Romney 325 : Obama 213 is a "landslide" but the outcome of (including Florida) Obama 332 : Romney 201 is a "squeaker".

What an intellectually dishonest troll.
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Old 11-07-2012, 04:21 PM   #851
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Originally Posted by Diemen View Post
That was more than a squeaker, Mr. Morris. But I understand that you have difficulty interpreting data.

A squeaker is not that far off.

When we have Busk/Kerry 2oo4 being called a squeaker.
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Old 11-07-2012, 04:23 PM   #852
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
.



I will say the writer of the article agrees with me on ABC and CNN, She clearly lies on Fox News, by 5 minutes, not a reasonable margin of error (one minute) Based on that I don't trust her calls the two she says were before the FOX NEWS call I saw at 8:13 that she claims came in 1 minute earlier on MSNBC. Twitter really, not really worth discussing. Since many twitter tweats are just plain bullshit.
Then you also disagree with all of these:

Cookies must be enabled | Herald Sun

NBC News First To Call Obama's Re-Election

Obama Wins Re-Election; NBC News First to Call - 2012-11-07 04:45:24 | Broadcasting & Cable

NBC News Declares Obama Winner of 2012 Presidential Election - Hollywood Reporter
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Old 11-07-2012, 04:34 PM   #853
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
.

Just to make this clear, as I have no agenda than to say what my own eyes told me. I have TWC where I have two tuners that I can switch back and forth and reverse to see when each network made the official call. I watched those and made a note. Then went to a second tv I had on that runs through a TIVO that can be backed up and played, I watched that network and made a note when it made the official call. All three of these come in on my cable that have a menu with time on it.

That is how I did my report on the three networks and when they called it.

I will say the writer of the article agrees with me on ABC and CNN, She clearly lies on Fox News, by 5 minutes, not a reasonable margin of error (one minute) Based on that I don't trust her calls the two she says were before the FOX NEWS call I saw at 8:13 that she claims came in 1 minute earlier on MSNBC. Twitter really, not really worth discussing. Since many twitter tweats are just plain bullshit.
I was in a newsroom that was literally waiting to see someone to call it (because we do not have our own polling data). Fox was not first. NBC was.
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Old 11-07-2012, 05:00 PM   #854
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I can't say about NBC, as I posted I had CNN, ABC and Fox or FOX NEWS on cable DVR. My post was about those 3.

And that other list is not true. Posting what blog writers say, especially since many of them take the lead from one source that could be wrong and then just keep reporting it and then claim multiple sources is something anyone that wants to be credible or not considered lazy or just wanting to find stuff that supports their position should not do.


I was hoping I could find a video of Fox with a time stamp on it.
I did find this.

Quote:
FoxNewsInsider ‏@FoxNewsInsider

Fox News Projects President Obama Wins Ohio http://soc.li/MGkSSRF #election2012 #ohio
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LIVE UPDATES: Fox News Projects President Obama Wins Ohio - Fox News...

UPDATE, 11:15p ET: Fox News can now project that President Obama will win the crucial battleground state of Ohio, which has long been considered a harbinger for the nation. With 18 electoral votes,...
FoxNewsInsider @FoxNewsInsider ·
I do conceed my numbers could easily by one number off, When I am hitting rewind to make a note, when does it switch form 13 to 14? What is the official time to hit the stopwatch. I don't count when commentators say it looks like Obama gets Ohio, that would make it official. There is a tradition when each network says "Ok, WE are calling it now! We project that so and so will win the state of 'such' and with that will be the next president.


So if I wrote 8:13 it may have been 8:14, but not 8:18.
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:49 PM   #855
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Does it really matter?
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