The End is Nigh: US Presidential Election Thread Part XVI

[trojanchick99]

Good News: there's a light at the end of the tunnel! Bad news: It may be a train.

I hope this is the last Election thread. Back in 2014 I started the first one. It was a simpler time then, when we thought Ted Cruz was the worst thing that could happen to this election. We were so naive, so very naive.

http://www.u2interference.com/forum...-2016-because-its-never-too-early-218216.html


I wish I had this to drink tomorrow.

PS. Fuck Ted Cruz

 

[gump]

We may survive, guys.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

 

[prbiker15]

Our local elections are also tomorrow, and I'll be voting for the very first time. Wish I was living in the U.S. so I could cast my vote for Hillary.

 

[Oregoropa]

Remember post your maps by midnight east coast time


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[BVS]

Remember post your maps by midnight east coast time


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Mine's looking a little like Ted Nugent's black and blue member


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[trojanchick99]

I'm optimistic that the Latino vote will help take Nevada, Arizona and Florida.

 

[gump]

Trump picking a fight with Jay-Z and complaing about rap lyrics is this election in a nutshell.

 

[BVS]

Trump picking a fight with Jay-Z and complaing about rap lyrics is this election in a nutshell.

Only one more day to shore up that angry white guy vote.


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[Danny Boy]

Sorry, rest of the world.

 

[Mrs. Garrison]

God Bless Dr. Jill Stein, looking at some of her twitter posts she makes a lot of sense. It is too bad we are stuck with a 2 party system. I might be inclined to vote for her since my state will be called 15 minutes after polls close.

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/795068270198091776

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/795377774160736257

 

[Danny Boy]

I thought Bolivia was basically a one-party system.

 

[gump]

Damn, Obama's closing speech in NH is something else. Check it ouy if you have a chance. Incredible stuff.

 

[Mrs. Garrison]

I thought Bolivia was basically a one-party system.

 

[Zoomerang96]

Any ideas folks, as to why Ohio and Iowa appear to have drifted comfortably into Trump's hands in recent polling?

Are there a lot of manufacturing jobs there that have been negatively affected by NAFTA?

 

[gump]

It's all in the demographics. Fewer Latinos, not as many African Americans as in other places, and tons of non-college educated white voters, which is Trump's go-to constituency. Same reason why Trump is more competitive than Romney in Wisconsin and Michigan.

 

[Mrs. Garrison]

Any ideas folks, as to why Ohio and Iowa appear to have drifted comfortably into Trump's hands in recent polling?

Are there a lot of manufacturing jobs there that have been negatively affected by NAFTA?

His rallies are YUUUUGE. Reports are that a rally in Ohio last night had a line of people 2.5 miles long waiting to get inside.

 

[prbiker15]

Damn, Obama's closing speech in NH is something else. Check it out if you have a chance. Incredible stuff.

Yep, he's an amazing speaker.

As for my map, I think it will be very close. Would love to be wrong.

 

[Irvine511]

Any ideas folks, as to why Ohio and Iowa appear to have drifted comfortably into Trump's hands in recent polling?

Are there a lot of manufacturing jobs there that have been negatively affected by NAFTA?

yes. and white people without college degrees.

Obama won big in the industrial midwest because he turned out blacks in the cities (Detroit, Cleveland).

Iowa ... less clear why he did so well.

i wouldn't be surprised if HRC pulls both of those off, however.

 

[gump]

I'm going with this as my final prediction:

Also, 50-50 for the Senate.

 

[Irvine511]

i haven't seen a line that long since i saw pictures of black people trying to vote in NC.

 

[Mrs. Garrison]

I guess all of that "Bosnia sniper fire" must have given her PTSD

Clinton Campaign Cancels Election Night Fireworks: Official | NBC New York

Hillary Clinton was planning on marking a potential Election Day win with fireworks over the Hudson River, but a law enforcement official told NBC News that the display has been canceled.
The New York City official said the display -- which had been permitted with the city -- was called off Monday ahead of the election. A reason for the cancellation wasn't given.

Clinton will be holding her Election Day party at the Javits Center. Trump, meanwhile, will be hosting a similar event at the New York Hilton Midtown.

Source: Clinton Campaign Cancels Election Night Fireworks: Official | NBC New York Clinton Campaign Cancels Election Night Fireworks: Official | NBC New York
Follow us: @nbcnewyork on Twitter | NBCNewYork on Facebook

 

[Oregoropa]

Any ideas folks, as to why Ohio and Iowa appear to have drifted comfortably into Trump's hands in recent polling?

Are there a lot of manufacturing jobs there that have been negatively affected by NAFTA?

They have been pretty strong for Trump since summer.

Iowa is democratic along the Mississippi River the western part of the state resembles more of a conservative Great Plains state. The GOP hit the state early with caucus. Plenty of energized voters. Ernst, Grassley, Steve King are very popular GOP figures in the state

Ohio has been energized as well. Both states contain many blue-collar democrats who have been disillusioned by the leftward lurch of the Party since Obama. NAFTA has hurt manufacturing throughout the rust belt from Upstate NY through Minnesota.

With Obama not on the ticket African American enthusiasm is down. Trump has multiplied Romneys African American draw by almost 3 fold.

If Hillary cannot pull 84% of African American turnout in metro areas should could be in trouble. Obama and Michelle are trying to hype up turnout. From Philly to Detroit. They are very worried. Think of every big city from Tampa to Richmond, Philly, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Pittsburgh

Michigan is interesting because Detroit has shrunk to near 700,000 people from a population of 1.5 millions in the 1990s.

 

[deep]

you are talking about the Americans that won two world wars, then came together to work hard in the economic engine that led the world for decades,
of course some of those other people you mention believe in hard too, and don't believe that the government (other people, tax payers) owe them something, and will join in with the deplorables

 

[Oregoropa]

RCP has now moved Virginia, Michigan, New Mexico, All of Maine into toss up categories today

 

[Irvine511]

If Hillary cannot pull 84% of African American turnout in metro areas should could be in trouble. Obama and Michelle are trying to hype up turnout. From Philly to Detroit. They are very worried. Think of every big city from Tampa to Richmond, Philly, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Pittsburgh

this seems to be the hope the Trump people are holding onto -- lower black turnout (which conservatives always love), and the idea that uneducated white people who don't normally vote will vote.

i agree, this could happen. it is a fear. but it's underestimating the large number of moderate, Romney voters, women in particular, who are disgusted with Donald Trump and will be voting Democratic. this was always H's strength over someone like Sanders, who could very well have scared the middle and not inspired minority turnout and only inspired the fickle young. we'll never know, but it's a fairly safe bet that HRC will pick off a good percentage of the educated white vote that Romney won in 2012. some have said it's an outlier, but there's that 29% of R votes going to HRC in FL.

it's so weird to me -- i'm talking about Mittens like he's Lincoln. and compared to Trump, he basically is.

 

[Mrs. Garrison]

They have been pretty strong for Trump since summer.

Iowa is democratic along the Mississippi River the western part of the state resembles more of a conservative Great Plains state. The GOP hit the state early with caucus. Plenty of energized voters. Ernst, Grassley, Steve King are very popular GOP figures in the state

Ohio has been energized as well. Both states contain many blue-collar democrats who have been disillusioned by the leftward lurch of the Party since Obama. NAFTA has hurt manufacturing throughout the rust belt from Upstate NY through Minnesota.

With Obama not on the ticket African American enthusiasm is down. Trump has multiplied Romneys African American draw by almost 3 fold.

If Hillary cannot pull 84% of African American turnout in metro areas should could be in trouble. Obama and Michelle are trying to hype up turnout. From Philly to Detroit. They are very worried. Think of every big city from Tampa to Richmond, Philly, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Pittsburgh

Michigan is interesting because Detroit has shrunk to near 700,000 people from a population of 1.5 millions in the 1990s.

Obviously i cannot vouch for this video but it does make you wonder..

WARNING: EXPLICIT LANGUAGE

 

[Irvine511]

you are talking about the Americans that won two world wars, then came together to work hard in the economic engine that led the world for decades,
of course some of those other people you mention believe in hard too, and don't believe that the government (other people, tax payers) owe them something, and will join in with the deplorables

and they are the ones fed up with the Reagan-Bush-Romney elites of the GOP. and for good reason. a vote for Trump is a "fuck you" to all establishment politicians.

we also can't wholesale valorize an entire group of people. it's demeaning, actually, to think that such people can't also be prejudiced and easily swayed by demagoguery, as well as shameless appeals to a past that never existed, a past where things were better.

 

[BVS]

But they're such nice and humorous people




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[deep]

I see right before the last thread closed someone brought up Glenn Beck in relationship to Trump, as one other frequent poster has

Becks criticisms of Dems in the past, like them or not, have not seemed as absurd as this

Glenn Beck Ends His Fast - Breitbart

 

[Oregoropa]

Wikileaks has produced many damning revelations, but so many of them are hard to digest and appear as inside-baseball for Political pundits.

In a strange twist the most damaging wikileak came out overnight Thursday. Many of you have not heard of it but it was the most trending item on twitter by five fold of any leak.

I'm talking about #SpiritCooking

Inside Podesta's emails were invites to a a Spirit Cooking event and Dinner. Snopes and democrats immediately dismissed it as performance art. A performance art with occultic overtones in a ceremony that may or may not include blood, breastmilk, semen. Whatever it may be the damage was done.

Deeply religious Hispanics and church going African-Americans are deeply fearful of any type of spiritualism that may hint at the Occult. The Spanish language tweet #CocinaDelEspiritu was trending as well.

Sunday's LA times tracking poll showed a drop of about 4 points among Latinos and a pickup of 4 points to Trump. The poll showed something along the lines of 44-40. A big shift in 48 hours. Likely was a topic before and after church yesterday.

May sound like a bunch of ballyhoo but once it got into the internet ether it seems to have had an effect. Hillary can not afford to lose her base constituencies at this point. This Wikileak may have shaved off a couple percentage points, which will be crucial in certain states.