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Old 11-07-2016, 09:59 PM   #76
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The End is Nigh: US Presidential Election Thread Part XVI

So Trump is in MN telling people how horrible the Somali immigrants are and what a threat they are.

What a horrible, racist person.
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Old 11-07-2016, 10:00 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post
Here is my map. Not as bullish as what I posted last week, but I still think we are looking at a 1980 style win for Trump.

Here are states where I think the results will be within 2.5%

Wisconsin (razors edge victory to Trump within 0.2%. Closest of the night)
New Mexico (within 1.5% to Hillary)
Minnesota
Maine
Colorado
Nevada

2.5 - 5%

Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Connecticut
Virginia
Delaware
Oregon
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
Florida

The commonwealth is not going for Trump, that I can assure you.
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Old 11-07-2016, 10:06 PM   #78
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The commonwealth is not going for Trump, that I can assure you.
My part of the commonwealth is going for Trump by 20 points.

Everybody that wants to harp on my map, put up your own. The big horserace is tomorrow. Let's put our cards on the table.
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Old 11-07-2016, 10:07 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post
Here is my map. Not as bullish as what I posted last week, but I still think we are looking at a 1980 style win for Trump.



Here are states where I think the results will be within 2.5%



Wisconsin (razors edge victory to Trump within 0.2%. Closest of the night)

New Mexico (within 1.5% to Hillary)

Minnesota

Maine

Colorado

Nevada



2.5 - 5%



Michigan

Pennsylvania

New Jersey

Connecticut

Virginia

Delaware

Oregon

Rhode Island

New Hampshire

Florida




I'm quoting this just in case you're here on Wednesday, I'd like to ask what you were thinking.


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Old 11-07-2016, 10:09 PM   #80
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LN7, I take it you're enjoying the spat between Nate Silver and that guy at HuffPo?
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Old 11-07-2016, 10:25 PM   #81
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LN7, I take it you're enjoying the spat between Nate Silver and that guy at HuffPo?
I tend not to follow. But I did just do a brief read up since you mentioned it.

I do not pretend to be a pollster, nor do I pretend to have the full experience of someone who runs prediction models. But I do have a firm grasp of fundamental statistics. So, based upon what little I read about what you're talking about... yeah, whoever thinks data exists out there that has Clinton winning at 98% chance is biased and has toyed with statistics. He's 100% right about how you use numbers... you can't just produce something and assume that because it mathematically works out, it physically has a meaning.

Case in point... I used to work in a microgravity physics laboratory. We would take high speed videos of particles colliding in near zero-G environments, and have a computer code track these particles positions per camera frame. The result is a series of x-y points. In order to determine how fast that particle might be moving, you can stick a regression line on it and statistically, with some certainty, decipher the velocity. So what kind of regression line do you use? Linear or quadratic? Well, it's in a zero-G environment. So, no gravity. Simple physics says that particles moving without a force on them should be... linear! If the quadratic regression line statistically fits better, that doesn't mean it's correct. Chances are, it was poorly tracked by the computer, or perhaps the particle bounced somewhere. You need to go look at the video. You can't happily just stick a quadratic fit on something that is physically not quadratic. You bastardize the purpose of statistics when you do that.

The same can be said for anyone lazily reporting biased numbers. I have minimal opinion of Nate Silver. I legitimately know very little about him. But judging his rant on Twitter, I know where he's coming from.
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Old 11-07-2016, 10:43 PM   #82
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I'm quoting this just in case you're here on Wednesday, I'd like to ask what you were thinking.


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He's peaking at the moment of decision
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Old 11-07-2016, 10:50 PM   #83
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He's peaking at the moment of decision

Literally NOTHING suggests this at all.
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:06 AM   #84
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LuckyNumber7, in your opinion, which appears a hell of a lot better educated than mine, which of the polls should I/we be looking at with the most faith?
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:24 AM   #85
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Our local elections are also tomorrow, and I'll be voting for the very first time. Wish I was living in the U.S. so I could cast my vote for Hillary.
I thought Puerto Rico votes for the president?
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Lol
I can't even.
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:30 AM   #86
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ANN Coulter remains a pathetic human being who is also fucking dumb.


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Old 11-08-2016, 12:32 AM   #87
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:33 AM   #88
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No. NO NO NO. A thousand times NO. This is not how you do statistics. I'm not doing ANYTHING in my favor. You're just citing an improper statistic. This is a fundamental flaw with RealClearPolitics. For the bazillionth time and one, if you average a multivariable (i.e. multiple candidates, in this case) sample with other multivariable samples, what you create is a statistically meaningless number with how you're trying to use it. If five sample says Trump is at 40 and the next five says Trump is at 60, Trump is NOT at 50. No sample has suggested that Trump is at 50. Trump is most likely at 40 or at 60 -- since his results are bimodal, with a gap in between, you can't just average these numbers. At least, not without understanding what the result generates.

As you know, RCP creates a Poll Average vs. Time chart. This DOES adequately describe how the candidates have been performing in polls, over time. i.e. YES, recent polls on average are higher for Trump. That ABSOLUTELY IS NOT THE SAME THING as suggesting Trump is LEADING in the polls. He led in A SINGLE POLL. A single poll is a single indicator.

The only way you can ever blindly average these numbers like RCP does with 100% guarantee is if the poll was a simple "are you voting for Donald Trump? Y/N." Then yes, you could average multiple samples without consequence.

Jesus. You must be the guy who makes EXCEL produce 8th degree polynomial fits just because it makes your r-squared value perfect.
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:50 AM   #89
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The End is Nigh: US Presidential Election Thread Part XVI

Quote:
Originally Posted by bono_212 View Post
I thought Puerto Rico votes for the president?
Nope, we can only participate in the primaries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by trojanchick99 View Post
How stupid of her.
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:52 AM   #90
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here's my map from a few days ago: http://www.u2interference.com/forums...ml#post8115302



i'm still pretty happy with it, although i wish i had flipped ohio and florida and made it 322-216.
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