The End is Nigh: US Presidential Election Thread Part XVI - Page 5 - U2 Feedback

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Old 11-07-2016, 08:44 PM   #61
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that's better than the toss-off column of spirit cooking
If I'm wrong maybe I should whip up some spirit cooking and drink it. Plenty of available deer blood in my back yard.

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Oregoropa thinks stats are for chumps -- can't replace intangibles!
RCP has moved Virginia, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico into the toss-up column today. Not as far fetched as you think. Momentum is on Trump's side
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Old 11-07-2016, 08:44 PM   #62
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Here is my map. Not as bullish as what I posted last week, but I still think we are looking at a 1980 style win for Trump.



Here are states where I think the results will be within 2.5%



Wisconsin (razors edge victory to Trump within 0.2%. Closest of the night)

New Mexico (within 1.5% to Hillary)

Minnesota

Maine

Colorado

Nevada



2.5 - 5%



Michigan

Pennsylvania

New Jersey

Connecticut

Virginia

Delaware

Oregon

Rhode Island

New Hampshire

Florida




That would be a great victory.
I've just been praying for a victory. Don't care if it's 538-0 or 274-264, just win baby. Take down these Soros owned, Devil worshipping, spirit cooking, luciferian lunatics.
#DRAIN THE SWAMP
I'm going out on a limb and say that he loses Florida or NC (not both), and wins Penn, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado.

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that's better than the toss-off column of spirit cooking

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Old 11-07-2016, 08:45 PM   #63
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did someone say whole hog?

[IMG]stupid sexist image[/IMG]
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Old 11-07-2016, 08:47 PM   #64
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Old 11-07-2016, 08:47 PM   #65
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Just stop.
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Old 11-07-2016, 08:50 PM   #66
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Just stop.
It astounds me how blind so many men are to just how many women there are out there of Hillary's generation or close thereto who are going to go to the polls and stick it to every Trump they've ever come across in their lives. And sadly how many more of us there are of the younger generation who have had to deal with much of the same.

Brace yourselves fellas.
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Old 11-07-2016, 08:50 PM   #67
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If I'm wrong maybe I should whip up some spirit cooking and drink it. Plenty of available deer blood in my back yard.


Save it for when the apocalypse hits, which is shortly after that no-fly zone is enforced in Syria, when all the hell breaks loose.
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Old 11-07-2016, 08:52 PM   #68
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If I'm wrong maybe I should whip up some spirit cooking and drink it. Plenty of available deer blood in my back yard.







RCP has moved Virginia, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico into the toss-up column today. Not as far fetched as you think. Momentum is on Trump's side

For the ten-bazillionth time, I don't know how many more times I have to say this... RCP POLL AVERAGES HAVE NO STATISTICAL MEANING. You can't average a set of distributions that end up bimodal.

Oh, and do your research. "Trafalgar Group," ie propaganda poll, is the one with Trump up everywhere by massive margins. They cited the Cuban vote as to why Trump has a "solid lock" in Florida. Good one. Not to mention their entire report is done in EXCEL.

Please stop citing RCP. It's not an accurate predictor.
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Old 11-07-2016, 08:54 PM   #69
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The End is Nigh: US Presidential Election Thread Part XVI

Can we talk about how Obummer commanded all the illegals to vote?! The librulz must have seen Oregoropa's map.
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Old 11-07-2016, 09:22 PM   #70
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The End is Nigh: US Presidential Election Thread Part XVI

I hope the Trump men in here remember to smile tomorrow night, win or lose.

They're so much prettier when they smile.

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Old 11-07-2016, 09:27 PM   #71
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I hope the Trump men in here remember to smile tomorrow night, win or lose.

They're so much prettier when they smile.

I made this for anyone who cites RCP averages as to why their candidate is going to win... a big frowny average of polls.



My Paint skills are on point.
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Old 11-07-2016, 09:33 PM   #72
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Live by the polls, die by the polls. Easy to cite when they are in your favor. I'm looking at the overall trends. Past performance by both candidates versus poll projections. Also much can be said as to where the campaigns are spending their final days (based upon their internal polling)
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Old 11-07-2016, 09:36 PM   #73
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Live by the polls, die by the polls. Easy to cite when they are in your favor. I'm looking at the overall trends. Past performance by both candidates versus poll projections. Also much can be said as to where the campaigns are spending their final days (based upon their internal polling)
If Hillary Clinton wins close to/around 350 EVs will you declare her victory a landslide tomorrow?
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Old 11-07-2016, 09:38 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post
Here is my map. Not as bullish as what I posted last week, but I still think we are looking at a 1980 style win for Trump.

Here are states where I think the results will be within 2.5%

Wisconsin (razors edge victory to Trump within 0.2%. Closest of the night)
New Mexico (within 1.5% to Hillary)
Minnesota
Maine
Colorado
Nevada

2.5 - 5%

Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Connecticut
Virginia
Delaware
Oregon
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
Florida

Lol
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Old 11-07-2016, 09:57 PM   #75
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Live by the polls, die by the polls. Easy to cite when they are in your favor. I'm looking at the overall trends. Past performance by both candidates versus poll projections. Also much can be said as to where the campaigns are spending their final days (based upon their internal polling)
No. NO NO NO. A thousand times NO. This is not how you do statistics. I'm not doing ANYTHING in my favor. You're just citing an improper statistic. This is a fundamental flaw with RealClearPolitics. For the bazillionth time and one, if you average a multivariable (i.e. multiple candidates, in this case) sample with other multivariable samples, what you create is a statistically meaningless number with how you're trying to use it. If five sample says Trump is at 40 and the next five says Trump is at 60, Trump is NOT at 50. No sample has suggested that Trump is at 50. Trump is most likely at 40 or at 60 -- since his results are bimodal, with a gap in between, you can't just average these numbers. At least, not without understanding what the result generates.

As you know, RCP creates a Poll Average vs. Time chart. This DOES adequately describe how the candidates have been performing in polls, over time. i.e. YES, recent polls on average are higher for Trump. That ABSOLUTELY IS NOT THE SAME THING as suggesting Trump is LEADING in the polls. He led in A SINGLE POLL. A single poll is a single indicator.

The only way you can ever blindly average these numbers like RCP does with 100% guarantee is if the poll was a simple "are you voting for Donald Trump? Y/N." Then yes, you could average multiple samples without consequence.

Jesus. You must be the guy who makes EXCEL produce 8th degree polynomial fits just because it makes your r-squared value perfect.
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