The American People Have Spoken

[Dreadsox]

As for the exit polling being wrong....in 2004 the preliminary polling was leaked. Preliminary polling in the morning is never used to make evening election predictions. It was leaked and the rumors on the web were because of the leak. By the time the evening polls were available to the networks....the picture was completely different based on the polls. Different segments of society vote at different times of the day.

There was no exit poll controversy in 2004, other than the web bloggers getting ahold of something tht was never intended to be used by itself to make a prediction.

 

[deep]

I have now found three different exit polls from 2004 that list MORAL Values as the number one thing that concerned them as they voted in 2004.

Shall I post them all....or are they all wrong?

If you posted TEN

some would still ignore them

some people just see or hear the arguments that support their beliefs

yes, values was the main issue in 2004


and in 2006

the GOP were successful in getting thier base out
that is why all the "ban gay marriage" laws passed

the difference between 2004 and 2006

is that aapprox 30% of regular church goers and evangelicals have no problem voting against gay marriage and against many GOP that they believed failed them because of corruption and politics over values.

this 30% of evangelicals and a good portion of the independants is what caused the 2006 sea-change

 

[Irvine511]

The vast majority of US troops overseas were deployed in Iraq at the time. The majority of US expenditures overseas were in Iraq and the majority of US casaulties were also in Iraq. The United States had not been hit by a terrorist attack in over 3 years. US troops were gearing up for a major offensive into fallujah. The fact of the matter is, the most important issue to this country for the past 3 and half years has been Iraq. In 2004, an election with over 122 million people voting, for the first time since 1988, a majority of Americans voted for the winning president and for the first time in 40 years, the incumbents party picked up seats in congress instead of losing them. A majority of the American public supported the war in 2004 helping George Bush win re-election despite pathetic liberal movies like Michael Moore's fahrenheit 9/11.

and just what did the exit polls say?

 

[Irvine511]

Your presuming that such exit polling is an accurate reflection of over 122 million people. Lets not forget that such exits polls also indicated that John Kerry, not George Bush was going to be the winner that night.

Even if such exit polling was correct, voters do not simply vote on just ONE issue and morality, terrorism, and even the economy are issues that overlap with Iraq for many people. So voting for anyone of those three could be seen as a vote in support of the Iraq war.

At a minimum, if you believe the exit polling is accurate and other stated reasons do not overlap, it shows that most people were not against the war in Iraq in 2004, since any serious opposition to a war would be expressed as the #1 issue, given the seriousness and impact it has on the country.

It would be extremely absurd to suggest that the Iraq war was not an issue in 2004. More Americans were killed and wounded in Iraq in 2004 than in any other year of the war. The United States has been spending several Billion dollars a week on the war. There is simply no other issue that impacts the country more when it comes to costs than the Iraq war and that is what people vote up or down on in elections, regardless of what CNN exit polling of a fraction of the people voting claims to reveal.

man, the US military must have REALLY fucked up over the past 2 years if each and ever single Bush voter in 2004 proudly walked into the voting booth humbing the star-spangled banner, saluted, and pulled the lever for Bush muttering, "give Saddam a boot in the ass for me."

 

[redhotswami]

man, the US military must have REALLY fucked up over the past 2 years if each and ever single Bush voter in 2004 proudly walked into the voting booth humbing the star-spangled banner, saluted, and pulled the lever for Bush muttering, "give Saddam a boot in the ass for me."

wasn't that a country song?

 

[phanan]

Re: Re: The American People Have Spoken

In November 2006, it shows that the majority of Americans have reversed their support for the war from where it was 2 years earlier, although there were not 122 million people voting in this election. The majority of the American public now no longer supports the war and wants to leave, regardless of the repercussions it seems. Sunni insurgents now have a big sign that their strategy might be working. Their obviously not strong enough to defeat the American forces occupying their country, but if they can convince the American public that the cost of the war is too great, not worth it, etc, then they can secure the premature withdrawal of US forces that they desire, which removes their biggest obstacle to re-establishing control.

I don't necessarily think that the majority of the American public wants the war to end immediately and leave - I think a great many want to change policy over there and try to make it work better than it already is, which, if successful, will lead to the gradual withdrawal of troops sooner than how it was looking under Bush's policy.

Whether that would work or not, who knows, but apparently most Americans want to try something else.

 

[trevster2k]

Whatever policy changes the administration decides upon, well, if there is a change, it better be committed to it. Bush keeps declaring how they can't afford not to win, clash of civilizations, sky is falling, etc. IF it is all he claims, then send over half a million troops, restore order, reconstruct, setup the puppet democracy and declare victory. Not committing enough troops and having a slow descent to hell is just as bad as leaving outright. If the infusion of thousands and thousand of troops doesn't change the situation, call it a day and come home. Otherwise, the US might as well include the Iraq War funding as a permanent part of the budget each year. In any case, do something, cause the buck stops with Bush. I don't think the Dems will touch Iraq unless it is forced upon them, cause there is no easy answer, and the last thing they want is to be tainted by Bush's Iraq adventure. Bush has the final say so all the Dems can do is suggest policy anyway, not force it.

Bill Maher suggested come home regardless since all the people they went over their to "help" are either dead or have left the country. The rest are ethnically cleansing themselves and whatever happens in Iraq is going to happen whether the US is there or not. Interesting take, hardcore view but he has a point.

 

[Dreadsox]

Re: Re: Re: The American People Have Spoken

I don't necessarily think that the majority of the American public wants the war to end immediately and leave - I think a great many want to change policy over there and try to make it work better than it already is, which, if successful, will lead to the gradual withdrawal of troops sooner than how it was looking under Bush's policy.

Whether that would work or not, who knows, but apparently most Americans want to try something else.

And I think it is a totally JOKE that this administration characterizes the Democratic position as cut and run.

 

[STING2]

Did not suggest it was not an issue....It was not the issue of importance.

I think what I have posted speaks for itself. The War on Terror was more important than the Iraq war in 2004. The Economy was more important than the war on terror...but the number one issue was Morality in 2004.

Trash the exit polls all you want. They speak volumes.

And I think it laughable that you would dismiss the victory in Ohio as anything but a referendum on morality.

Well, then it would be the first time the United States was involved in a major ground war that it was NOT an issue of importance. More US troops were killed and wounded in 2004 than at any time since 1971. The largest expenditure of the US government in 2004 was on Iraq. The War On Terror for millions of people IS the war in Iraq. The economy and morality both connect to the war in Iraq as well.

Everyone saw the exit polls in 2004. If you want to pin all of your thoughts and ideas to them, thats just fine. But I find their accuracy lacking and disagree with your interpretation of the results as well.

 

[STING2]

As for the exit polling being wrong....in 2004 the preliminary polling was leaked. Preliminary polling in the morning is never used to make evening election predictions. It was leaked and the rumors on the web were because of the leak. By the time the evening polls were available to the networks....the picture was completely different based on the polls. Different segments of society vote at different times of the day.

There was no exit poll controversy in 2004, other than the web bloggers getting ahold of something tht was never intended to be used by itself to make a prediction.

Back to your original question, where in the exit polls does it say that the majority of people believed that Bush was wrong on Iraq in November 2004?

 

[STING2]

If you posted TEN

some would still ignore them

some people just see or hear the arguments that support their beliefs

yes, values was the main issue in 2004

Yes, but the thread topic is about voters support for Iraq policy in 2004 and 2006 I believe, regardless of what one feels was the #1 issue to the plurality or majority of voters in either election.

 

[STING2]

and just what did the exit polls say?

Its a poll of a fraction of those who voted. In addition, many of the issues listed overlap with Iraq.

 

[STING2]

Re: Re: Re: The American People Have Spoken

I don't necessarily think that the majority of the American public wants the war to end immediately and leave - I think a great many want to change policy over there and try to make it work better than it already is, which, if successful, will lead to the gradual withdrawal of troops sooner than how it was looking under Bush's policy.

Whether that would work or not, who knows, but apparently most Americans want to try something else.

Some want to leave immediately(within 6 months), others have some vague idea of having all troops out of Iraq in 18 months or less. I think they now form the majority opinion in the country, although its true that some simply want a new strategy in Iraq with withdrawal put off for a much later date.

 

[verte76]

So was the 2004 election proof positive that the American Public believed in the Iraq war?

Well, Kerry wasn't exactly anti-war. He'd voted to give Bush the power to go to war, and he was more against the way the war was being fought. To be honest, I'm not sure this vote was as much of an anti-war vote as it was a protest against the way the war is being fought. I'm against the war myself but I'm not sure the American people are.

 

[STING2]

Re: Re: Re: Re: The American People Have Spoken

And I think it is a totally JOKE that this administration characterizes the Democratic position as cut and run.

Perhaps in the sense that there is not just one Democratic position on the issue.

 

[STING2]

Whatever policy changes the administration decides upon, well, if there is a change, it better be committed to it. Bush keeps declaring how they can't afford not to win, clash of civilizations, sky is falling, etc. IF it is all he claims, then send over half a million troops, restore order, reconstruct, setup the puppet democracy and declare victory. Not committing enough troops and having a slow descent to hell is just as bad as leaving outright. If the infusion of thousands and thousand of troops doesn't change the situation, call it a day and come home. Otherwise, the US might as well include the Iraq War funding as a permanent part of the budget each year. In any case, do something, cause the buck stops with Bush. I don't think the Dems will touch Iraq unless it is forced upon them, cause there is no easy answer, and the last thing they want is to be tainted by Bush's Iraq adventure. Bush has the final say so all the Dems can do is suggest policy anyway, not force it.

Bill Maher suggested come home regardless since all the people they went over their to "help" are either dead or have left the country. The rest are ethnically cleansing themselves and whatever happens in Iraq is going to happen whether the US is there or not. Interesting take, hardcore view but he has a point.

The United States could double the number of troops in Iraq to around 280,000 troops, but there are not enough US ground combat Brigades to bring the total to 500,000 or more since there has to be 1 Brigade at home for ever Brigade deployed so that units can rotate out of the combat zone after a year to rest and refit. Certainly, deployments could be extended indefintely, but then you start to run into problems that degrade the units combat effectivness.

The central solution to the problems in Iraq continues to be training the Iraqi military and police forces to a level that will eventually allow the US military to withdraw. Nation Building and Counter Insurgency operations take years if not decades to succeed. Its way too early to be calling the operation a failure, considering how long they have historically taken to succeed.

 

[Dreadsox]

Back to your original question, where in the exit polls does it say that the majority of people believed that Bush was wrong on Iraq in November 2004?

I am on the original question. You made a point. I have a plethera of articles that explain the screwiness of the 2004 election.

I never said anywhere in my premise that the American people thought Bush was wrong. I quoted the polls that show that as of 2004 the American public felt that the war was going poorly.

I quoted the polls that demonstrate Morality was the top issue for the voters.

I demonstrated that the state that put this president back in office was Ohio in which Gay Marriage was on the ballot. I demonstrated that EVERY county in Ohio voted down Gay Marriage and supported Bush. I demonstrated that the Ohio exit polls in 2004 mirrored the sentiment of the country as a whole, that Iraq was not the main issue for them and that Iraq was going poorly. I showed that this time around, a number of states that went Republican in 2004, elected democrats in 2006. I demonstrated that exit polls showed that the Iraq War was the top priority this time around.

 

[STING2]

I am on the original question. You made a point. I have a plethera of articles that explain the screwiness of the 2004 election.

I never said anywhere in my premise that the American people thought Bush was wrong. I quoted the polls that show that as of 2004 the American public felt that the war was going poorly.

I quoted the polls that demonstrate Morality was the top issue for the voters.

I demonstrated that the state that put this president back in office was Ohio in which Gay Marriage was on the ballot. I demonstrated that EVERY county in Ohio voted down Gay Marriage and supported Bush. I demonstrated that the Ohio exit polls in 2004 mirrored the sentiment of the country as a whole, that Iraq was not the main issue for them and that Iraq was going poorly. I showed that this time around, a number of states that went Republican in 2004, elected democrats in 2006. I demonstrated that exit polls showed that the Iraq War was the top priority this time around.

I saw and read the same articles, exit polls, etc. after the 2004 election. A poll showing that the American public thought the war is going poorly is not the same as whether the American public supports the Bush administration on Iraq in 2004.

Exit polls showing that Morality was the #1 issue does not necessarilly mean that it was the #1 issue. In addition, morality for many voters includes Iraq. Issues like the "War On Terror" and the Economy, both overlap with Iraq for many voters.

This is not about the electoral college and Ohio being the state, that put Bush over the top. 2004 was a national election, and only a tiny fraction of the 122 million people took any of these exit polls. In addition, its not exactly clear clear what the information from the exit polls tell us, since so many of the issues overlap each other.


The fact remains, there was no other single issue in 2004 that was taking more US taxpayer dollars than Iraq. 2004 had the largest number of US troops killed and wounded in action since 1971. Iraq was the subject of several controversial films that did well at the box office. It receive more media coverage than any other political issue in 2004.

War is such a costly and controversial issue for any country and there has yet to ever be a US election during a war that was not in some way a referendum on the war and the current administrations conduct of that war.

The 2004 elections showed that the majority of the American public still supported the war and administration policy on the war. If that was not the case, you would have seen what happened this past week, back in 2004. If anything, not seeing a war as the main issue would only be evidence that the public supported it and the administration rather than opposed it. Your doing very well, if the public does not see something as costly and controversial as a war as being the #1 issue.

Analyze it how you want, but historically elections during war have always in some way been a referendum on the war. I think its rather easy to see that the majority of people in November 2004 generally still supported the Iraq war given the strong victory that Bush and Republicans had in 2004 and that 2 years later in November 2006 the majority is now against the war with the massive democratic victories in the House and Senate.

 

[Dreadsox]

 

[Irvine511]

it boggles the mind.

 

[Dreadsox]

it boggles the mind.

 

[trevster2k]

I'm with Dread and Irvine.

 

[anitram]

You spin me right round, baby right round. Like a record baby....

 

[A_Wanderer]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats, who won control of the U.S. Congress, said on Sunday they will push for a phased withdrawal of American troops from Iraq to begin in four to six months, but the White House cautioned against fixing timetables.

“First order of business is to change the direction of Iraq policy,” said Sen. Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat who is expected to be chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee in the new Congress.

Democrats will press President George W. Bush’s administration to tell the Iraqi government that U.S. presence was “not open-ended, and that, as a matter of fact, we need to begin a phased redeployment of forces from Iraq in four to six months,” Levin said on ABC’s “This Week” program.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyid=2006-11-12T170830Z_01_N20203713_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRAQ-USA-1.xml&src=rss&rpc=22

The Democrats aren't instilling any confidence that they are strong on defence by floating things like this, coupled with the Scowcroftian report by James Baker which will be pushing for a withdrawl Bin Laden may be completely vindicated when he declares the US to be a paper tiger who ran away from Beirut and Somalia and would never be able to fight Allah's side

 

[phanan]

 

[BVS]

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyid=2006-11-12T170830Z_01_N20203713_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRAQ-USA-1.xml&src=rss&rpc=22

The Democrats aren't instilling any confidence that they are strong on defence by floating things like this, coupled with the Scowcroftian report by James Baker which will be pushing for a withdrawl Bin Laden may be completely vindicated when he declares the US to be a paper tiger who ran away from Beirut and Somalia and would never be able to fight Allah's side

And indefinite stay with no results does instill confidence? Come on people...

 

[Dreadsox]

And indefinite stay with no results does instill confidence? Come on people...

Are you a pinko? Quitter.... I bet you cut and ran on the playground.

 

[BVS]

 

[Diemen]

We must stay until the job is done!

How long is that?

We don't know!

Do you guys have an estimate?

You're trying to embolden the enemy!

Is there a set plan in place to ensure this place is ready for our withdrawal at some point in the future? You don't have to say when if you don't want to.

We'll stand down as they stand up.

Riiiiight, quite a plan. How's that working out? D'you mind if I ask the generals?

.......... Cut and run!! You're trying to cut and run!!!

 

[trevster2k]

The plan is to blame the Iraqis for not stepping up and doing the job. This way the neo-cons save face and someone else takes the blame.