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Old 10-27-2004, 11:16 AM   #16
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Originally posted by LarryMullen's_POPAngel
All I'm waiting for now is Osama's head on a platter Nov. 1st.

Won't happen.

Why kill the goose that lays the golden egg.
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Old 10-27-2004, 11:17 AM   #17
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What happens if the intelligence does not help identify a particular target, but makes it clear that a strike is imminent? Do you withhold the info to prevent panic? Do you use cautionary language? Do you make a blanket "someone is gonna die" statement?

The realities of terrorist planning and intelligence gathering make this a difficult proposition.
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Old 10-27-2004, 11:20 AM   #18
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I think it's worth noting that the terror alerts and jumps in ratings correlate only because the public generally believes that Bush is fighting a competent campaign against terrorism. If the public thought that Bush was doing a lousy job, I'd expect the ratings to drop every time there was a terror alert.
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Old 10-27-2004, 11:30 AM   #19
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No, it's not a matter of Bush fighting a competent campaign.

It's a matter of the weak-minded getting scared off their asses that they're going to be killed by the big bad terrorists, and rallying 'round the leader while panicked.

Mass hysteria at its finest.
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Old 10-27-2004, 11:30 AM   #20
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Originally posted by speedracer
I think it's worth noting that the terror alerts and jumps in ratings correlate only because the public generally believes that Bush is fighting a competent campaign against terrorism.

I agree.


And they believed him when he said they had evidence that Saddam was trying to import "yellow cake" nuclear materials from Niger. Long enough to get the Iraq War launched.

We all know the evidence was fake and planted in Italy and reported in British reports to scare America to War.

Who forged it?

Whose purposes did it serve?

Why is there no serious effort to find out where this came from?



What current War would not have gotten public support without lies and misrepresentation?



This election is being manipulated by the lowest form of operatives to ever occupy the Whitehouse.
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Old 10-27-2004, 11:33 AM   #21
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from an august thread addressing this topic,


not sure if this has been updated. but i guess there hasnt been another warning. lots of campaigning may have improved the approval rating in the meantime, but then again lots of campaigning against him may have hurt it.

on topic, i dont know if anyone is doing a chi square on these numbers to see if there is a statistical correlation, but it certainly looks like terror warnings happen at a particular time.
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Old 10-27-2004, 11:39 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally posted by DaveC
No, it's not a matter of Bush fighting a competent campaign.

It's a matter of the weak-minded getting scared off their asses that they're going to be killed by the big bad terrorists, and rallying 'round the leader while panicked.

Mass hysteria at its finest.
What is your evidence of mass hysteria?

And how can you prove or disprove the improvement in security from terrorists?
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Old 10-27-2004, 11:39 AM   #23
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Certainly not with a blanket system that covers the entire country based on a threat on one single city.
nbc, i believe the terror warning associated with edwards being named vp candidate was fairly specific to not only certain cities but specific employers and buildings. thus it is a perfect candidate for the much more efficient framework dave c. suggests.

warning the 47 or 48 other states and hundreds of millions not directly involved is nothing short of exploitative.

surely those people would have found out as media attention would have gone unchanged, but im sure you see the difference.
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Old 10-27-2004, 11:41 AM   #24
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So, some of the terror warnings are given for specific areas? I thought DaveC was arguing that we do not get such information so folks in rural areas flee to their basements.
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Old 10-27-2004, 12:55 PM   #25
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the problem is, as mentioned, the terror alerts make the public scared. Here in NYC, we've been orange since that stupid alert system started. kob-- the specific threats you mentioned were not new -- the stock exchange, for example, did not heighten security that much when the alert came out. You have to remember that they have been operating at a heightened alert level since 9/12/01. this is why I was so suspicious of Tom Ridge's announcement for that -- that he was moving the stock exchange and other NYC buildings to an orange alert level. they are ALWAYS at an orange alert level but of course, someone in Kansas may not be aware of that.

As for an alternative, the government needs to work with local agencies more to let them know of possible threats instead of getting the general public freaked. I can tell you when NYC has received a credible threat not because of an increased terror level but because I see more cops in the subways or high-traffic areas. As someone said, why does some farmer in Kansas need to freak out and buy duct tape because NYC got another threat on its subway?
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Old 10-27-2004, 01:10 PM   #26
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Reuters Poll: Bush Leads Kerry by 1 Point

Oct 27, 7:03 AM (ET)




By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush leads Democratic rival John Kerry by 1 point with six days left in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Bush led Kerry 48-47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, as the Massachusetts senator gained 2 points on Bush in a day. Bush led Kerry 49-46 percent on Tuesday.

Bush's lead was well within the poll's margin of error, leaving the White House rivals in a statistical dead heat heading into the stretch run.

"Today was a big day for Kerry," pollster John Zogby said.

Kerry has consolidated his base support just as Bush did early in the race, taking a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics, 90 percent of blacks, 84 percent of Democrats, 55 percent of union voters and 65 percent of singles.

Only 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

At this stage of the 2000 election, Bush led Democrat Al Gore by 5 points in the daily tracking poll.



Time to ratchet up the terror alert!
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Old 10-27-2004, 01:52 PM   #27
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I think terror alerts are great. Since no one here believes in them no skin of your backs. For the "weak minded," who choose to believe in them, its great for them b/c they fell something is being done or they feel like they are being sufficently warned. Great system. It appeals to everyone.
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Old 10-27-2004, 03:29 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally posted by kobayashi
from an august thread addressing this topic,


not sure if this has been updated. but i guess there hasnt been another warning. lots of campaigning may have improved the approval rating in the meantime, but then again lots of campaigning against him may have hurt it.

on topic, i dont know if anyone is doing a chi square on these numbers to see if there is a statistical correlation, but it certainly looks like terror warnings happen at a particular time.
Hmm.

I think you'd have to throw out the orange alerts that were issued at the time the Iraq war started and at the time Saddam was captured, because these events are very plausible explanations for the jumps in approval rating.

Once you do that, the average jump per terror alert is a bit less impressive.
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