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Old 01-10-2008, 03:56 PM   #1
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South Carolina Primary Predictions

Rasmussen as the following post New Hampshire polls taken January 9 for South Carolina.


Republican Primary

1. McCain 27%
2. Huckabee 24%
3. Romney 16%
4. Thompson 12%
5. Giuliani 6%
6. Paul 5%





Democratic Primary

1. Obama 42%
2. Clinton 30%
3. Edwards 15%

The New Hampshire primary has reversed Huckabee's prior 12 point lead into a 3 point lead for McCain. But, on the Democratic side, Obama's lead has actually increased since Clintons victory in New Hampshire.
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Old 01-10-2008, 04:35 PM   #2
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Bit early for this isn't it?

I wonder if in addition to the NH bounce, McCain may also be benefiting from contrition over the vicious smear campaign against him and his family during the SC Republican primary in 2000. I've read more than once now that everywhere he goes in SC, people have been making a point of apologizing to him for that. SC also has a long history of being a pro-military state (military bases, lots of military retirees, military academies) and I'm sure that helps him too. Still, I'm very surprised that he's pulled ahead of Huckabee in the polls.

Obama is still looking good as far as the Dem race there goes, and has been for awhile.
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Old 01-10-2008, 05:01 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally posted by yolland
Bit early for this isn't it?

I wonder if in addition to the NH bounce, McCain may also be benefiting from contrition over the vicious smear campaign against him and his family during the SC Republican primary in 2000. I've read more than once now that everywhere he goes in SC, people have been making a point of apologizing to him for that. SC also has a long history of being a pro-military state (military bases, lots of military retirees, military academies) and I'm sure that helps him too. Still, I'm very surprised that he's pulled ahead of Huckabee in the polls.

Obama is still looking good as far as the Dem race there goes, and has been for awhile.
Well, the Primary is Saturday, January 19 for the Republicans in South Carolina which is next week. The Democrats go a week later on the 26th.

If these polls are accurate, McCain could be in an excellant position. A Win in Michigan would probably help open up a serious lead, and a win in South Carolina could help him knock out Giuliani in Florida who's lead there is already down to just 5 points. But McCain needs to win Michigan first before anyone gets too carried away with predictions.

I'm surprised that Obama's lead in South Carolina increased after Clintons victory in New Hampshire.
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Old 01-11-2008, 08:26 AM   #4
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Gosh, Edwards is third in his own home state. He was born in South Carolina, remember.
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Old 01-11-2008, 04:09 PM   #5
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Things at the moment are trending very well for McCain. He is now 8 points ahead of Giuliani in Florida. 3 points ahead of Huckabee in South Carolina, but I have not seen a new Michigan poll but suspect he is ahead there as well. IF McCain wins Michigan and South Carolina, he will probably win the nomination given that polls already show him ahead in Florida. South Carolina is huge for Republicans. Since 1980, every Republican to win the nominiation for President has won South Carolina in the primaries. Prior to that time, electoral politics and party politics were very different especially once you get back to 1964. Prior to 1980, the south was Democratic in the way that it is for Republicans today.
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Old 01-11-2008, 04:20 PM   #6
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It will be interesting to see if the bounce McCain appears to be getting from his win in NH will hold until the South Carolina primary. It will be close between him and Huckabee.
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Old 01-11-2008, 04:26 PM   #7
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after watching and hearing what the group of GOP S Carolinians had to say
on Fox News after the GOP debate (that Luntz was polling)

all I can say
is their choice sounds like it will be one giant step backwards
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Old 01-11-2008, 04:44 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by deep
after watching and hearing what the group of GOP S Carolinians had to say
on Fox News after the GOP debate (that Luntz was polling)

all I can say
is their choice sounds like it will be one giant step backwards
You mean Thompson? I don't think he has much of a shot to win SC. He'll finish third probably, or maybe even tied for second, but that's it.
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Old 01-11-2008, 04:48 PM   #9
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It was more the comments

things like

the GOP needs to get back to it's true roots

that the Bush Administration is liberal???


most people believe that W has been a very conservative President, even more so than Reagan
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Old 01-16-2008, 11:12 AM   #10
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It appears Romney's win in Michigan hurt Huckabee. Prior to Michigan, Huckabee was leading the RCP average. Now, McCain is leading, in part due to a post-Michigan poll putting him 6 points ahead of Huckabee.
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Old 01-17-2008, 11:07 AM   #11
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McCain now leads by 7.5 points.

Both Huckabee and Thompson NEED to win SC, or else they're done. However, assuming McCain wins, they'll probably stay in until Super Tuesday.
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Old 01-17-2008, 11:48 AM   #12
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it's amazingly wide open, but i actually think Mitt is going to pull it off (not SC, the whole thing).

here's why.

the economy is headed for a downturn for a variety of reasons. it's going to be the #1 issue heading into the fall. of all the Republicans, Mitt can make the best argument that he has the best understanding of the economy, and he can go state-to-state and shamelessly tell whatever people whatever they most want to hear. i admired McCain's statement in Michigan about the fact that the car industry is terminal, that those jobs aren't coming back, so worker's must be retrained. that's hard to hear, but that's also the truth.

for Mitt the management consultant, the truth never gets in the way of making the client happy. the man will say absolutely anything. and he's most "credible" on economic issues.
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Old 01-17-2008, 12:22 PM   #13
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someone will win, someone will lose, and the pollsters won't have a fucking clue whom it will be.
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Old 01-17-2008, 09:30 PM   #14
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I vote Libertarian, but I'm not sure if I will vote for Ron Paul or Fred Thompson Saturday.

Prediction:
Huckabee or McCain will win.
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Old 01-17-2008, 09:32 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by the iron horse
I vote Libertarian, but I'm not sure if I will vote for Ron Paul or Fred Thompson Saturday.
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
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