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Old 12-20-2007, 04:30 PM   #316
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Originally posted by 2861U2


His strategy to get the nomination, by focusing on the bigger states.
Wow, that's vague. You think everyone else is ignoring the bigger states? Basically, I ask what do you see his stradegy being, how is it any different from the other canidates?
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Old 12-20-2007, 04:34 PM   #317
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Quote:
Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar


Wow, that's vague. You think everyone else is ignoring the bigger states? Basically, I ask what do you see his stradegy being, how is it any different from the other canidates?
Rudy acknowledges that he probably will not win or come close to winning Iowa, or probably NH. He's got a big lead in Florida, and is spending most of his money there, as opposed to people like Romney or Huckabee spending mostly in Iowa.
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Old 12-20-2007, 04:43 PM   #318
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Quote:
Originally posted by 2861U2


Rudy acknowledges that he probably will not win or come close to winning Iowa, or probably NH. He's got a big lead in Florida, and is spending most of his money there, as opposed to people like Romney or Huckabee spending mostly in Iowa.
He acknowledges that? I haven't seem him acknowledge anything, but OK.

I just don't see how a strategy of ignoring these states is going to somehow change his overall appeal. No one seems to trust him all that much, from both sides.
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Old 12-20-2007, 04:45 PM   #319
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Quote:
Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar


He acknowledges that? I haven't seem him acknowledge anything, but OK.

He said on Wolf Blitzer the other day that he doesn't expect to win them all, and I would assume he was implying Iowa.
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Old 12-20-2007, 11:58 PM   #320
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Let's talk a brief look at Giuliani's strategy.

Iowa Caucus, the last 30 years

Eventual Rep Nominee:
2004 GWB 1st
2000 GWB 1st
1996 Dole 1st
1992 GHWB 1st
1988 GHWB 3rd
1984 Reagan 1st
1980 Reagan 2nd
1976 Ford 1st

New Hampshire primary the last 30 years:

2004 GWB 1st
2000 GWB 2nd
1996 Dole 2nd
1992 GHWB 1st
1988 GHWB 1st
1984 Reagan 1st
1980 Reagan 1st
1976 Ford 1st

Obviously 4 of those elections had incumbents but even still, those numbers are quite telling. I didn't look at the Dem results but I believe they are pretty much the same. Rudy is banking on a longshot.

Why we let those two States determine so much, who knows?
I mean, I know the stated reasons, I just think they are bullshit.
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Old 12-21-2007, 12:00 AM   #321
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Originally posted by U2DMfan

Why we let those two States determine so much, who knows?
I mean, I know the stated reasons, I just think they are bullshit.
I know. 33 million people in California can go fuck ourselves for all anyone cares.
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Old 12-21-2007, 12:03 AM   #322
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Just looked real quick
the Dems in the last 30 years/Iowa and New Hampshire

6 of 8 eventual nominees won New Hampshire
the other two finished second

6 of 8 won Iowa (in 1976, "uncomitted" delegates actually won, with Carter 2nd, so I counted it as essentially a victory). The other two finished 3rd (1992 Clinton actually 4th behind "uncommited", again among actual candidates, 3rd)


Anyhow, risky plan to say the least.
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Old 12-21-2007, 12:45 AM   #323
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2DMfan
Rudy is banking on a longshot.

Yes, it certainly is risky. He basically needs the 3 states of Iowa, NH, and SC to have at least 2, if not 3 different winners, assuming he wins none of them. If one person sweeps those 3, he's in big trouble. That's pretty unlikely, though. I'm pulling for Romney to win Iowa, as that would almost undoubtedly knock Huckabee out.
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Old 12-21-2007, 12:50 AM   #324
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Quote:
Originally posted by martha


I know. 33 million people in California can go fuck ourselves for all anyone cares.
Quote:
Calif. population nears 38 million, up 11.5 percent since 2000
By DON THOMPSON Associated Press Writer
Article Launched: 12/19/2007 05:59:12 PM PST

SACRAMENTO—Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is fond of referring to California as a nation state.

Population figures released Wednesday show that if the Golden State was its own country, it would be right there with Poland.

California's population is nearing 38 million, up 11.5 percent since the 2000 census, according to estimates by the state Department of Finance.

Among nations, 33 countries have more people, with Poland's population running just ahead at 38.5 million. The latest figure still means California has more people than Canada.

The department calculated that the nation's most populous state had about 37,771,000 people as of July 1. It added 438,000 more residents in the previous year.

Just more than 12 percent of the 301 million people in the U.S. live in California.
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Old 12-21-2007, 04:37 AM   #325
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Originally posted by 2861U2

I'm pulling for Romney to win Iowa, as that would almost undoubtedly knock Huckabee out.
Well I'm glad some conservatives are coming to their senses, although I wouldn't really call voting for Romney sensible, it's a start.
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Old 12-21-2007, 07:11 AM   #326
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Damnit, I always make a post on an FYM thread only to come back the next day and find it's completely moved on from when I posted. Well, to go back 30 or so posts, I'd just like to say to LM that I hold no ill will whatsoever towards him.
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Old 12-21-2007, 09:26 AM   #327
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2DMfan
Just looked real quick
the Dems in the last 30 years/Iowa and New Hampshire

6 of 8 eventual nominees won New Hampshire
the other two finished second

6 of 8 won Iowa (in 1976, "uncomitted" delegates actually won, with Carter 2nd, so I counted it as essentially a victory). The other two finished 3rd (1992 Clinton actually 4th behind "uncommited", again among actual candidates, 3rd)


Anyhow, risky plan to say the least.
Yeah, I remember Clinton got his momentum from winning Super Tuesday. Before then his campaign was in trouble.
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Old 12-21-2007, 10:37 AM   #328
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Quote:
Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar


Well I'm glad some conservatives are coming to their senses, although I wouldn't really call voting for Romney sensible, it's a start.
I never really jumped on the Huckabee bandwagon. He's a nice guy and I like where he stands on some stuff, but I do not want him to be the nominee.
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Old 12-21-2007, 11:45 AM   #329
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Originally posted by 2861U2


I never really jumped on the Huckabee bandwagon. He's a nice guy and I like where he stands on some stuff, but I do not want him to be the nominee.
If I were voting for a national pastor, Huckabee might be a good option. (Though I'd still vote for Franklin Graham ahead of him.) I may be in the minority, but I still like McCain for president. He's got the most experience, still seems to be the most straight-talking, and his ability to reach across the aisle with McCain/Feingold means that he can actually get stuff done.

I vote Fred Thompson for national grandpa.
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Old 12-21-2007, 12:47 PM   #330
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Quote:
Originally posted by nathan1977


If I were voting for a national pastor, Huckabee might be a good option.
Really? I just don't see how this guy is even remotely respectable, even to conservative christians. Maybe I'm so removed from that thinking anymore that I just can't relate, but I don't get it.

He's actually preaching this Sunday down the street from me at the home of the discusting televangalist John Hagee.
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