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Old 03-29-2006, 02:09 AM   #1
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Saudi Nukes

A world of nuclear powers that embraced the rational concept of self-preservation existed in a state of nuclear stand off for 50 years during the corld war - somehow I doubt this will be the case now that Iran is nuclear and apparently Saudi is making movements.
Quote:
BERLIN (AFP) - Saudi Arabia is working secretly on a nuclear programme, with help from Pakistani experts, a German magazine reports in its latest edition, citing Western security sources.

The German magazine Cicero says that during the Hajj pilgrimages to Mecca in 2003 through 2005, Pakistani scientists posed as pilgrims to come to Saudi Arabia in aircraft laid on by the oil-rich kingdom.

Between October 2004 and January 2005, some of them took the opportunity to “disappear” from their hotel rooms, sometimes for up to three weeks, it quoted German security expert Udo Ulfkotte as saying.

According to Western security services, the magazine added, Saudi scientists have been working since the mid-1990s in Pakistan, a nuclear power since 1998 thanks to the work of the now-disgraced Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.

Cicero, which will appear on newstands on Thursday, also quoted a US military analyst, John Pike, as saying that Saudi bar codes can be found on half of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons “because it is Saudi Arabia which ultimately co-financed the Pakistani atomic nuclear programme”.
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If ever a nuclear exchange occured the Black Stone would be sent hurtling back to where it came from.

Gonna be one brilliant apocalypse
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Old 03-29-2006, 02:22 AM   #2
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Coincidence or not?
Quote:
KHARTOUM, Sudan - The head of the Arab League called on Arab states Tuesday to work toward “entering the nuclear club” by developing atomic energy — a new concern for a Western world already trying to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions and fretting about a possible Mideast arms race.

Amr Moussa’s comments came as a surprise at a troubled Arab League summit meant to tackle crises ranging from Iraq to the Palestinian peace process. ...

Moussa spoke to the gathered leaders at the opening of the summit, saying, “I would like to call on the Arab world to enter into the world of peaceful use of nuclear energy with all speed and momentum.”

“This is a legal right ensured for all states that are party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” he said.
link

A very good criticism of the Bush doctrine is that in trying to initiate long term reform it will be overrun in the short term by nuckear proliferation (something that the admin has really been poor on, letting the EU-3 and UN try to deal with Irans nuclear program which at this stage is a forgone conclusion). Iran already had their program before 2003, Pakistan has had these weapons for years and the AQ Khan network was spreading the expertise and materials ~ even if Saddam wasn't removed Iran would still be getting nuclear weapons and the Arab world including Saddam Hussein would be mobilising weapons programs to match the threat from the East.

Anyhow, if Arab states go nuclear with the current regimes in place and the oil price staying as high as it is today then the MAD doctrine may once again take center stage in policy and the concept of existential threat may become a lot more tangiable,
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Old 03-29-2006, 11:21 PM   #3
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Maybe we should bring out the old Conrad alert helmets...........
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Old 03-30-2006, 10:04 PM   #4
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A-wanderer...I find this Wiki link quite helpful. Obviously, there are others but this one always amused me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_and_cover
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Old 03-30-2006, 10:11 PM   #5
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The Bush Doctrine has done nothing but inspire hatred of the United States and give nations an incentive to become completely self-sufficient. To Arab states, apparently, to become a nuclear power is the gold standard and to develop nuclear weapons is to ensure that the U.S. will never overthrow your government. After all, they look at North Korea as the shining example of that.

What a buffoon the American people elected.

Melon
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Old 04-01-2006, 02:56 PM   #6
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My instincts were correct, Melon....your avatar.....I checked it out on Wiki. I often wonder what the original radio version of War of the Worlds was like.....were people actually panic-driven?
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Old 04-01-2006, 03:38 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by melon
The Bush Doctrine has done nothing but inspire hatred of the United States and give nations an incentive to become completely self-sufficient. To Arab states, apparently, to become a nuclear power is the gold standard and to develop nuclear weapons is to ensure that the U.S. will never overthrow your government. After all, they look at North Korea as the shining example of that.

What a buffoon the American people elected.

Melon
Well said.
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Old 04-01-2006, 09:15 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by wizard2c
My instincts were correct, Melon....your avatar.....I checked it out on Wiki. I often wonder what the original radio version of War of the Worlds was like.....were people actually panic-driven?
yes

there was no internet
or TV
when the Mercury Theater did their broadcast

and many that were dial surfing
believed it to be true.
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Old 04-04-2006, 08:07 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by melon
The Bush Doctrine has done nothing but inspire hatred of the United States and give nations an incentive to become completely self-sufficient. To Arab states, apparently, to become a nuclear power is the gold standard and to develop nuclear weapons is to ensure that the U.S. will never overthrow your government. After all, they look at North Korea as the shining example of that.

What a buffoon the American people elected.

Melon
This doesn't explain why Iraq, Iran and Libya were pursuing nuclear programs before September 11 going back over the last decade and before that. This will continue after Bush is gone just like as it did when Bush and Clinton were in - it will continue regardless of what party is in power, what would be your solution to this? How could the US possibly make Arab states abandon nuclear aspirations or subvert the rise of political Islam?

The Bush doctrine is an idealistic piece built upon the democratic peace theory, sadly other than trying to foster change (which is probably too little too late anyway - there is no way that democratic change can be fostered in Iran once the Mullahs have nuclear weapons - they will be able to purge dissidents without any threat, in the face of this short term gains in the region can be quickly and quietly squelched) I see few options that don't result in a more apparent and definable war and/or megadeath at some point when Islamic states obtain nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation among these states is able to proceed unabated.

The Soviet Union and America understood the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction, even India and Pakistan can recognise and abide by this principle. What happens at the point where the person with their finger on the button would welcome such a fate?
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Old 04-04-2006, 09:52 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
(...there is no way that democratic change can be fostered in Iran once the Mullahs have nuclear weapons - they will be able to purge dissidents without any threat, in the face of this short term gains in the region can be quickly and quietly squelched) I see few options that don't result in a more apparent and definable war and/or megadeath at some point when Islamic states obtain nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation among these states is able to proceed unabated.
How do you figure this? Acquisition of nuclear weapons doesn't ensure permanent legitimation of whatever regime is in power at the time. And I don't know that the evidence from conventional warfare history supports the assumption that Islamist states are any more inclined than others to warfare-as-mass-suicide, which is exactly what they'd get if they mounted a first strike against any of the more likely targets. Strategic martyrdom by individuals may have its uses on a regional scale, and for exacting targeted doses of revenge against enemies too big to fight head-on; but as a route to world domination, or a victorious Tenth Crusade, it'd be pretty self-defeating against an arsenal the size of ours or Russia's. Terrorist leaders don't send their minions out to die because they want to help them find eternal life--they do it because they've got real-world goals in mind.

Cold comfort to the Indians and Pakistanis though, as I don't imagine anyone else would likely intervene in the nuclearization of what we'd all prefer to see as a purely local problem. So I hope you're right about their resolute commitment to M.A.D. as deterrent.
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Old 04-04-2006, 10:32 AM   #11
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Terrorist leaders don't send their minions out to die because they want to help them find eternal life--they do it because they've got real-world goals in mind.
I was under the impression that it was dying in pursuit of those goals was what makes one a shahid. I don't think that I can approach the thought processes of any Islamic terrorist from a secular position that only deals with a will to power, faith and religious conviction are forces for a good many things not least the utter suspension of logic and surrendering of self. The impotent rage that is pervasive in all that jihadist literature talking about an impossible revival could lead to some illogical decisions from any objective measurements.

I refuse to bet on believers lacking the capacity for death now - paradise later.

As it stands there is no such thing as the Caliphate and the existing powers in the region would all be opposed to it, but that force may be rendered moot if the technology and expertise becomes more readily available non-state groups who could act with relative immunity.

The risk of nuclear war must surely be proportional to the number of states with nuclear weapons, proliferation among Arab states and furthur afield would raise the inherent risk factor, it only takes a single bomb in the wrong hands to precipitate disaster. Since the proverbial Jinn is already out of the bottle the only question is how long
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