STING2 said:
The Democrats have no strong runners remotely comparable to McCain. As long as McCain gets his party's nomination, he will win the general election. Hillary and Obama would not stand a chance against McCain, especially when the country really focus's on the two contenders after the primaries.
Winning the Republican nomination will be easier now that the Republicans have suffered such a heavy defeat in Congress. The upside to such a defeat is that its a wake up call to those who either did not vote, or thought they could afford to go with candidate a or b in 2008. For the Republicans now, the issue becomes more about electiblity and defeating the Democrats rather than ones personal preference or ideology for a particular candidate. In addition, the party "elites" and key fundraisers had already started to line up behind him before the November elections.
The Democrats will do their best to go after McCain, but going after McCain won't be like going after W.
Well, this would be the standard hardcore Republican rosy view.
It's a four horse race, aside from Giuliani, whom I think has little chance, I'd say McCain, Romney and Gingrich aren't all that far apart. I know what recent polling says and I know the size of salt to take it with. McCain has a public persona of moderate, nice guy, self-effacing, war hero. When he starts getting beat up again, even worse with the Bush baggage, all those hardcore Reps will be looking at Gingrich and Romney with wide open eyes.
Then again, McCain is a true conservative, but so are the other two. I'm just saying, it's not the slam-dunk that conventional wisdom says at this point.
In fact, in those silly polls, Giuliani's lead is widening over McCain.
Did Rudy become more conservative or is McCain becoming less desirable....to Republicans? I don't think those polls mean anything but if that's the justification for this rosy view for McCain, I think it's misguided, personally.
Lastly, if you underestimate the Clinton machine, it makes me wonder if you were in a coma throughout the 90's. Hillary will be tough to beat, Obama will have no easy task and neither will the Rep nomination. Those silly polls alos say something about that supposed 'gap'. McCain vs Hillary head up is now a 4-8 point lead for McCain, where a year, two years ago it was at least 15.
A common sense approach here, how can the Republicans reconcile Iraq by 2008 with the Bush agenda? They basically can't. Nothing short of a miraculous turnaround. So if an objective common sense says that the Bush agenda is doomed in 2008, what does that do to John McCain, coupled with being beaten up in the campaign itself, the elephant in the room is his support of the Bush agenda. Republicans will be running from the Bush agenda like the plague in 2008. McCain will be the lone torch bearer of the current policy. Gingrich will eat him alive in the debates. Romney may coast, I say McCain doesn't get the nomination. Romney vs Gingrich.
So not only do I scoff at the idea of an invincible McCain in 2008, a man I supported in 2000, I don't think he'll even get the nomination. I certainly could be wrong, it's just an opinion.