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Old 02-15-2004, 08:23 PM   #1
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Question for Americans

So it looks like Kerry is gonna be your new democrat candidate, i'm an aussie so im not sure on all the american politics and stuff.


Well if he is, do you think that he would be able to beat bush in the presidential election? Just curious.


Is he winning the polls or anything?
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Old 02-15-2004, 09:13 PM   #2
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The biggest factor will be turnout in the election in my opinion. I believe that a large turnout means no Bush.

The problem now is so much time between now and the election, there is no wasy to predict who will win.

As it is, I think Kerry will lose. I think his voting record will cause mainstream voters and independants to shy away from him.

It will be a close election, and while I think Kerry will win the popular vote, I am predicting an electoral college victory for Bush again.
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Old 02-15-2004, 09:46 PM   #3
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It is too early to tell. I think the race will be close and competitive. I'm really surprised that Kerry is doing so well in the Southern and border states. Egads, he beat John Edwards in Tennessee, big time, and Virginia. Tennessee is the more conservative state; Virginia has the liberal D.C. suburbs. Now that Clark is out of the race it will be interesting how Kerry runs against Edwards in the other Southern states. That will tell us something, I think, if he polls really well against Edwards.
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Old 02-15-2004, 09:59 PM   #4
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verte76,

I think how Kerry does in the Democratic Primary's in the South will tell you very little about how he will do in the general election. The Democrats are a much smaller party in the South than in other parts of the country. Republicans and Independents are going to vote Bush in the South. Even some Democrats in the South will probably end up voting for Bush.
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Old 02-15-2004, 10:14 PM   #5
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I guess the question is - can Bush win all the states he won in the 2000 election? Can he be expected to pick up other states from the Dem candidate?

I have no idea. Somebody with a better idea of polls and numbers should answer this.
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Old 02-15-2004, 11:02 PM   #6
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According to what I have read in the economist, everything is shaping up to be a replay of the 2000 election. 45% of the electorate has made up their mind already to go for the Democratic Candidate while another 45% are going to vote for Bush. The big question is the undecided 10%. All the Republicans have to do is win the States they won last time. The Democrats will have to do the hard work of upsetting the Republicans in one or more of these States if they want to win the election.
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Old 02-15-2004, 11:14 PM   #7
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Hang on is voting compulsary in the US of A
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Old 02-15-2004, 11:19 PM   #8
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Nope
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Old 02-15-2004, 11:23 PM   #9
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Whoa! Thats huge! I thought it was....

Down here in australia, we got no choice, we have to vote otherwise we get forced to pay a whopping great fine even if we dont have any preference for any of the parties.....

I envy you yanks now, I'm strongly against compulsory voting, even though I'd probably vote in every election anyway...
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Old 02-16-2004, 02:09 AM   #10
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Sorry to be an asshole, intedomine, but I'd strongly suggest voluntary voting is a big reason why America has its current president. It's different when everyone is forced to take an interest.

Anyhow compulsory voting isn't so onerous, is it? All you have to do, legally, is turn up and get your name ticked off the list. You can use the ballot paper for noughts-and-crosses if you really want to.
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Old 02-16-2004, 02:53 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by Kieran McConville
Sorry to be an asshole, intedomine, but I'd strongly suggest voluntary voting is a big reason why America has its current president. It's different when everyone is forced to take an interest.

Anyhow compulsory voting isn't so onerous, is it? All you have to do, legally, is turn up and get your name ticked off the list. You can use the ballot paper for noughts-and-crosses if you really want to.
Absolutely. I'm an Australian and I don't mind having to vote. We just had a state election the other week and Team Beattie won - I voted for them, so you know, it's kind of nice to know that everyone has a say and most people agreed with me.

Yes, it is important for people to make informed choices, and yes, I am aware that many Australians don't and just vote to avoid getting a fine. But I definitely prefer our system to America's. Last election was about 24% voter turn-out, wasn't it? That's pretty poor!

I find it quite laughable really that the country which promotes itself as the greatest democracy on earth had less than a quarter of the population voting. Let's hope it's better this time - even for us in Australia, the US president is pretty much the most important person in our lives! So, please, Americans, make a good choice! For the sake of your friends in Australia ...
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Old 02-16-2004, 04:51 AM   #12
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I understand why Americans (and a whole lot of other countries) don't have compulsory voting. That whole right to believe that all the candidates suck. The non-vote is a vote in a sense. That's what it means in theory, but in reality 3/4 of the population just can't be arsed to stop watching the football game on tv for half an hour and go and vote. Those people have no right to complain about the president they get. Obviously with elections as important as this one in the US, you'd hope a whole lot more get out and vote.

Compuslory elections are good because it gets rid of the laziness, plus it forces everyone to at least spend 10 seconds giving it some serious thought. Like the US, Australia has 2 major parties that have been the only 2 real choices for leadership since forever (one leaning slightly left, one right - both with close relationships to their equivalents in the US and UK), and of course, like the US, many people will still just vote for whoever is 'their' traditional party, not on issues, but still, it makes a lot more people think about their countries politics and leadership, which is a good thing in a day and age where generally most people don't give a shit.

Ok, another question on US elections to be explained for the non US people here - what's this Electoral College business?
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Old 02-16-2004, 06:28 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by intedomine

Down here in australia, we got no choice, we have to vote otherwise we get forced to pay a whopping great fine even if we dont have any preference for any of the parties.....
This may be stupid, but...don't you have the option of voting "none of the above" - ie you don't support any of the candidates? Or can't you show up to vote and then just spoil the ballot paper so you haven't voted for a candidate you don't like but you won't get fined for failing to vote?
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Old 02-16-2004, 06:37 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by TylerDurden
Ok, another question on US elections to be explained for the non US people here - what's this Electoral College business?
Disclaimer: I'm not American.

Basically the Electoral College means that American elections aren't decided purely on the popular vote, that is the candidate with the most votes wins. Instead the candidate who wins each state gets a certain number of delegates, the number varying depending on the population of the state. The delegates then cast their votes in an Electoral College held after the election and then candidate with the largest number of Electoral College votes is elected President.

In the 2000 election Gore got around 500,000 more votes than Bush, but Bush still won because he had more Electoral College votes.

Some people think the Electoral College is completely outdated, elections should be decided only by the popular vote and the system can mean that residents of some states have more influence on the election than residents of other states. Others defend it on the basis that it means that candidates don't ignore the small states with few voters, because those states Electoral College votes could help them to win the election.
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Old 02-16-2004, 06:37 AM   #15
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After reading Stupid White Men, my question instead would be 'can the Americans be assured that the next election is infact going to be fair and democratic?' Maybe I have only read subjective un-truths, but it still makes me wonder............



oh and for anyone who liked what Mike Moore had to say in that book, I strongly reccomend you read PJ O'Rourke's 'Parliament of whores', very funny stuff, but in all honesty you don't know whether to laugh or cry
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