Porn: Good For America!

[A_Wanderer]

The number of rapes per capita in the United States has plunged by more than 85 percent since the 1970s, and reported rape fell last year even while other violent offenses increased, according to federal crime data.

This seemingly stunning reduction in sexual violence has been so consistent over the past two decades that some experts say they have started to believe it is accurate, even if they cannot fully explain why it is occurring.

Hmm. What's different since 1970? Lots of things, of course, though bared midriffs and short-shorts are back. But probably the most relevant difference is porn. In 1970, some people argued that porn caused rape. Since 1970, though, porn has exploded. In 1970 you had to work pretty hard to find porn. Now you have to work nearly as hard to avoid it.

But rape has gone down 85%. So much for the notion that pornography causes rape — or, at least, if it did have much effect in that direction, it would be hard to explain how rape rates could have declined so dramatically while porn expanded so explosively.

So while I won't go so far as to argue that porn actually prevents rape, it seems clear that the claims of some people — including a commission headed by former Attorney General Ed Meese back in the 1980s — that pornography promotes rape are, at best, overstated. I suspect, though, that anti-pornography crusaders are unlikely to heed this lesson.

link

Causation or correlation good news is good news.

 

[Angela Harlem]

 

[Liesje]

Rape has gone down 85%? How can they know this when only a fraction of rapes are even reported. I don't care if people want more porn, but I'm skeptical that "rape rates...have declined so dramatically."

 

[A_Wanderer]

Has the incidence of reporting increased in the last 30 years?

 

[Angela Harlem]

How do you confidentally draw a connection between a decrease in reports and actual rapes, A_W? Be careful how you answer. You are about to piss off a lot of people with this one.

 

[A_Wanderer]

I prefaced with causation versus correlation as far as the rise of the porn industry, a direct causation would be a pure assumption.

Trends over the last 30 years have moved furthur towards treating the women as the victim of rape and not the instigator. I wouldn't think that we have been seeing a lower incidence in reporting rape given the social trends, there is always going to be unreported rape but for these statistics to be pointing that way then we would have to have a trend of lower reporting over the last 30 years.

 

[dandy]

not blaming women for rape is a 'social trend'? are you fucking kidding me?

an estimated 95% of rapes go unreported. i won't even get into the dismal percentage of allegations that actually result in convictions.

when i hear that rape crisis centres and women's shelters are saying that the overall incidences of rape are declining, maybe then i'll be inclined to breathe a sigh of relief.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

not blaming women for rape is a 'social trend'? are you fucking kidding me?

Uh, ditto

 

[Liesje]

Trends over the last 30 years have moved furthur towards treating the women as the victim of rape and not the instigator.

Really? I hadn't noticed.

One out of three college aged women will experience some kind of sexual assault. I was just reading another college's paper and in one article, the Dean estimated 50 rapes in one year, but a survey reported 109, and the college counsellors estimated that even that number was low, based on the women that come to them.

Doesn't sound like we're on the up and up to me.

I don't believe that more (sexually violent) porn reduces rape, directly or indirectly. I just took a psych course that argued the opposite - cathartic behavior encourages more of the behavior. Many rapist, especially serial ones, are acting out fantasies that they've become obsessed with. How is encouraging this fantasy going to help? On the other hand, the vast majority of rapes are not by serial rapists, but at colleges, parties, things like this. 90% of the rape victims know their attackers. It's about opportunity, and often alcohol and drugs are involved. How is using more porn going to help? They think guys will say "oh, I'm so high and she's so trashed, so she won't even care.....oh wait, I watched that porn video earlier so I don't need to rape her."?!?!?

 

[A_Wanderer]

So the data sets are fucked - which I am completely open to. Obviously incidence of reporting and what constitutes sexual assualt has changed over time, but if we are taking the 1970's and the 2000's what would cause such a decrease in the per capital incidence? I would think it would be either a drop in reporting or a drop in rapes - has reporting changed in those decades?

Serial rapists acting out fantasies - I can accept that, but I don't think that the media (albeit pornographic) is the cause of those fantasies, the fucked up are the fucked up and they will do evil things regardless.

Again causation versus correlation, very important when presented with information be it articles like this or global warming stories.

 

[Liesje]

So the data sets are fucked - which I am completely open to. Obviously incidence of reporting and what constitutes sexual assualt has changed over time, but if we are taking the 1970's and the 2000's what would cause such a decrease in the per capital incidence? I would think it would be either a drop in reporting or a drop in rapes - has reporting changed in those decades?

Yeah, the data has been, is, and always will be fucked. So how can we compare "per capita" incidence? What does that mean? If somewhere between 50-90% of rapes are never reported, what is the point?

Serial rapists acting out fantasies - I can accept that, but I don't think that the media (albeit pornographic) is the cause of those fantasies, the fucked up are the fucked up and they will do evil things regardless.

Exactly. People who are going to rape other people are horrible people regardless of how much porn they watch. What does porn have to do with anything?

Again causation versus correlation, very important when presented with information be it articles like this or global warming stories.

I have no clue what you're implying here. What does rape have to do with proving global warming?

 

[A_Wanderer]

I have no clue what you're implying here. What does rape have to do with proving global warming?

It has to do with statistics and the way that they are used.

 

[Liesje]

It has to do with statistics and the way that they are used.

So...how can we prove a point when we have no valid statistics? I understand the difference between correlation and causation, but in this case, I don't really care because we've got data that's worthless.

 

[A_Wanderer]

not blaming women for rape is a 'social trend'? are you fucking kidding me?

an estimated 95% of rapes go unreported. i won't even get into the dismal percentage of allegations that actually result in convictions.

when i hear that rape crisis centres and women's shelters are saying that the overall incidences of rape are declining, maybe then i'll be inclined to breathe a sigh of relief.

The WaPo story had different figures for that percentage

In 1979, according to a Justice Department estimate based on a wide-ranging public survey, there were 2.8 rapes for every 1,000 people. In 2004, the same survey found that the rate had decreased to 0.4 per thousand.

Many criminologists and victims' advocates say that these numbers could be a statistical mirage, because rape is still underreported and poorly understood. But others say they have been convinced that there is real improvement and that a devastating crime has been receding from American life.

"Overall, there has clearly been a decline over the last 10 to 20 years," said Kim Gandy, president of the National Organization for Women. "It's very liberating for women, in terms of now being able to be more free and more safe."

By all accounts, rape is still one of the most underreported crimes. Several decades after the establishment of rape crisis hotlines, greater sensitivity toward rape victims by police and prosecutors, adoption of policies by news organizations to not identify victims and limitations on how much a victim's sexual history can be placed in evidence during trial, the Justice Department estimates that 61 percent of rapes and sexual assaults are still not reported. But that is down from 69 percent in 1996, and experts say the trend remains downward.

Not everyone is convinced that things are getting that much better. Many who work with rape victims say they do not believe there has been a widespread decline in the number of attacks. Instead -- despite the years of attempted outreach to rape victims -- they say the crime may be as hidden now as ever.

"If there's been a change, it's been a very small change," said Dean Kilpatrick, director of the National Crime Victims Research and Treatment Center in Charleston, S.C. He said that recent high-profile rape cases such as those involving Duke University lacrosse players and basketball star Kobe Bryant may have persuaded rape victims to stay silent because of public scrutiny of the accusers' private lives and sexual history.

Some experts say that the dispute over numbers has made rape an especially difficult crime to study or try to fix.

"When the conversation gets bogged down around, 'How prevalent is this problem?' you can't even get to the next steps, of 'Now, what are we going to do about it?' " said Jennifer Pollitt Hill, executive director of the Maryland Coalition Against Sexual Assault, an Arnold-based umbrella group for victims' assistance groups statewide.

Now, though, some experts are saying they have been won over by decades of data showing the same encouraging thing: Rape in America is receding, and rapidly.

link

 

[Liesje]

"Justice Department estimates that 61 percent of rapes and sexual assaults are still not reported. But that is down from 69 percent in 1996, and experts say the trend remains downward."

1) Notice the use of the word "estimates"

2) How does the Justice Department have any accurate way to estimate how many rapes are reported if rapes aren't reported?

"some experts are saying they have been won over by decades of data showing the same encouraging thing: Rape in America is receding, and rapidly."

Who are these "experts"? IMO the only people that are really "experts" on the occurace vs. reporting of rape are women ages 16-25 and their counsellors/shrinks. I don't care what that story says.

 

[A_Wanderer]

They all sound like biased sources, I kid - I kid - of course sexual assualt is not to be taken lightly.

 

[Liesje]

Yeah, good thing you made that edit, I was REALLY going to lay into you.

My point is this: Say a woman in college, someone very much like myself, has 10 close friends. 5 of these close friends have confided in her that they've been victims of rape, either by their boyfriends or at parties or in some dark alley. Now say some man at the Justice Department is crunching his numbers and his unbiased computer says that the current rate for rape among women in my age group is 10% (I totally made up that number). Who is the expert? The computer guy who generated 10% or the college woman who knows that 50% of her circle of friends, representing the same age group, have been raped?

So yeah, I'm still curious to know who you would consider "experts" on the matter of rape. Personally, when I think of an expert I think of someone who deals with whatever we're talking about on a daily basis. In this situation, that means the experts are women who deal with rape or the liklihood of being raped every day, and their counsellors who see exactly how many women are raped but don't report it to police, thus the Justice Department.

 

[Salome]

it would surprise me if in the 1970s and 1980s the percentage of not reported sexual assaults was considerably lower than it is now
85% definitely is a high enough percentage to at least suggest that there is a trend
what causes this trend and whether the exact shift in percentage is indeed anywhere as high as 85% would be impossible to say

I have been forced to study statistics long enough to be aware of the dangers, but it's hard to deny that something seems to be going on

 

[A_Wanderer]

Can anecdotal evidence ever be taken broadly?

A woman at college who has 10 close friends may have a relatively narrow band in terms of what types of women she is friends with, and given that she is at college that environment where you have a lot of young men would skew the prevalence.

Counsellors too, even though they themselves are on the front lines and deal with it every day by virtue of what they do may deliever a skewed perception.

So you are left with statistics with very wide error margins versus anecdotal evidence - I would put what little stock there is in the statistics, but it doesn't change the underreporting of the crime or the need to vigorously pursue offenders.

It is a topic that evokes such severe emotional arguments - as it should - but that can also inhibit some avenues of investigation. For instance research on rape in an evolutionary context, a most valid piece of research, forced copulation to spread genes works, can be inhibited by sensitivities and the message that it is always and only about power and dominance and never about sex.

 

[fly so high!]

 

[A_Wanderer]

Kinky

 

[Angela Harlem]

This article is fine and all if you want a clinical and narrow look at the issue. The emotion behind the topic isn't as hindering as a need to see in black and white. This article lost me as soon as it stated the most relevant difference between now and 1970 was porn. I geet the feeling you write off social studies, A_W, but truth is, this is a load of balls. There are such monumental changes in society from then to now which have nothing to do with porn. Porn is a man's thing, on the whole. This rubbish article is making a ridiculous leap from it with criminal activity and the societal shifts which have altered and affected reporting of violent crimes against (mainly) women. There are so many factors which affect it. Porn quite frankly, cant have a great deal to do with it. If you want answers as to why, then you're going to need to be willing to hear non black and white responses. An unexact science.

 

[verte76]

I don't know how they can say that when most rapes go unreported, either.

 

[Angela Harlem]

It is a topic that evokes such severe emotional arguments - as it should - but that can also inhibit some avenues of investigation. For instance research on rape in an evolutionary context, a most valid piece of research, forced copulation to spread genes works, can be inhibited by sensitivities and the message that it is always and only about power and dominance and never about sex.

Your coldness toward the topic is typical of how you approach every issue, it seems. I'm not trying to attack you personally, but you appear chronically void of much emotion on emotional issues, preferring to be a clinical thinker - which is fine. You aspire to be a scientist. However, rape is not a science you can push your glasses up the bridge of your nose on. Perhaps there is 2 sides to your perceived inhibiting of avenues.

 

[Salome]

I was wondering why no one actually addressed this instead of focussing on whether or not we can trust statistics

I just think mankind has finally evolved a wee bit
don't think porn plays a great roll in this

 

[A_Wanderer]

I think that they would both be concequences and not causes of social change - namely more open attitudes towards sexuality, change for the better.

 

[Irvine511]

i don't want to touch the porn angle on this, but can't we say it's a good thing when the reporting of rape has increased (yes, it's hugely underreported, so let's look at any increase as a good thing) while at the same time the actual number of rapes has decreased?

speaking as a man who always had a sort of detached viewpoint on this, since i'm not likely to have a woman accuse me of rape, (though i do know women who have been raped), but i think the decrease in numbers of rape is precisely due to the fact that people talk about it now, it's part of conversation, and any first-year orientation at nearly all colleges and universities gives undergraduates extensive information and statistics about rapes on college campuses, the whole "no means no" thing.

i think it's very encouraging -- obviously, education is working, and it's working most with men who i think we have to say are far more respectful of a woman's right to choose when she does and does not have sex in comparison to their 1970s counterparts, as well as being aware of the criminality of the act itself.

so how can we not look at this as good news? no, not perfect news, but a positive trend.

 

[Irvine511]

as for the porn, i think all we can extrapolate from this is that the increase of porn has not resulted in an increase of rape.

so it means that the feminists and the cultural conservatives were both wrong -- Andrea Dworkin and Phyllis Schafley were both incorrect.

i think there are negative effects to the mainstreaming of porn, but it doesn't seem as if rape is one of them.

 

[AliEnvy]

I think that they would both be concequences and not causes of social change - namely more open attitudes towards sexuality, change for the better.

Not only more open attitudes about sexuality, but women's sexuality in particular.

I could be way off but in the 70s porn was more about men dominating women sexually as a form of humiliation and control. These days mainstream porn is just plain old hedonistic sex and shows women enjoying it as much as the men. Could that have contributed to lower violent rape rates? Sure, but only as a by-product of the advancement of women in society and the acceptance by men of those new roles which pervade every aspect of life beyond porn.

In the 70s women simply serviced their men. Now a man's prowess in the bedroom revloves around how well he can please his partner. The type of porn out there reflects that.

So sure it may be a contributing factor to lower rape rates.

OR

The new open sexuality of women means they are more succeptible to rape and less likely to report it not wanting their sex lives scrutinized because as far as we think we've come, women who have sex are still labelled sluts.

 

[A_Wanderer]

The porn is a product being sold off to consumers, it is going to be determined by market forces - what do people want to spend their cash on. What the individual consumer wants is shaped partly by social pressures. So it is not a cause but a related effect to social changes, specifically attitudes towards sex. For a mark of reference 1976 was hardly the beginning of the sexual revolution.

By back to the statistics if we assume that the rates of rape reporting have stayed the same then the incidence of rape has dropped. If the rates of reporting increased then the incidence really dropped a lot. If the rates of reporting decreased then actual rapes may even have increased.