Polls, Endorsements, and Opinions

[drivemytrabant]

The latest CNN/USATODAY/Gallup poll has Bush up 52% 44% Likely voters 49% 46% Registered voters. And it looks like Bush's charges that Kerry is too liberal are having an affect. 47% polled said that Kerry was "too liberal." While 40% polled said that Bush was "too conservative." Oh and lets not have round 67 about Gallup being run by the GOP. Whatever you believe, CNN and USATODAY are credible and many believe that they are biased towards the other side. Meanwhile in the surprise of the century, The New York Times endorses John Kerry saying "We have been impressed with Mr. Kerry's wide knowledge and clear thinking — something that became more apparent once he was reined in by that two-minute debate light. He is blessedly willing to re-evaluate decisions when conditions change. ... He strikes us, above all, as a man with a strong moral core." While Mr. Bush was endorsed by The Chicago Tribune. They say "There is much the current president could have done differently over the last four years. ... But for his resoluteness on the defining challenge of our age — a resoluteness John Kerry has not been able to demonstrate — the Chicago Tribune urges the re-election of George W. Bush as president of the United States." While on the campaign trail, President Bush says he is the best protection from the draft, and John Kerry puts the blame for the shortage of flu vaccination on Bush with a new ad.

 

[sharky]

The Washington Post is showing Kerry with a 10-point lead -- 53% to 43%. And according to Editor & Publisher "In E&P's exclusive daily endorsement tally, this gives Kerry a 15-13 edge on President Bush but widens his margin in the combined circulation of the papers that back him from 3-1 to nearly 5-1, with an edge of about 4 million to 850,000"

 

[STING2]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-10-17-poll_x.htm


With the debates over and two weeks to go in the election, this is how things currently stack up in the national polls.

GALLUP: BUSH 52% KERRY 44%

NEWSWEEK: BUSH 50% KERRY 44%

ZOGBY: BUSH 48% KERRY 44%

WASHINGTON POST: BUSH 50% KERRY 47%

TIME MAGAZINE: BUSH 48% KERRY 47%

AVERAGE: BUSH 49.6% KERRY 45.2%

Whatever bounce Kerry got from the debates is clearly gone now, despite the fact that most polls showed that viewers thought he won all three.

I think this election is going to come down to three states. Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If Bush fails to win Florida, he will lose the election. If Kerry fails to win Pennsylvania, he will lose the election. A Kerry Victory in Ohio could likely win him the election. A Bush victory in Ohio though would win him the election.

If Bush simply wins the states he won last time, a likely possibility, he wins the election with 278 electoral votes. Kerry must penetrate this area of Bush control in order to win while at the same time making sure that no states that voted Democratic in 2000 go for Bush this time. Bush must simply defend his victories in States from 2000 and force Kerry to work harder than he would want to in states that are considered locked up for the Democrats.

If Pennsylvania were to go for Bush, it would signal a long night for Kerry and probably a hefty Bush win. The state leans to the left more than states in the midwest that voted Democratic last time and a Kerry defeat here will likely mean a defeat in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota where the margin of victory for Democrats in 2000 was much smaller.

If Bush keeps Ohio in his column, he is unlikely to lose any other states to the south and west unless something unusual happens in Florida. Ohio is the state that was hardest hit by the recession and if Kerry can't win it, he is unlikely to be able to win any States that voted for Bush in 2000.

It is difficult to see a Bush victory without a win in Florida. A loss in Florida would require Bush wins in Ohio, and either several DEM. states in the midwest, or a victory in Pennsylvania.

 

[STING2]

The Washington Post is showing Kerry with a 10-point lead -- 53% to 43%. And according to Editor & Publisher "In E&P's exclusive daily endorsement tally, this gives Kerry a 15-13 edge on President Bush but widens his margin in the combined circulation of the papers that back him from 3-1 to nearly 5-1, with an edge of about 4 million to 850,000"

The Washington Post poll just released 48 hours ago on Friday shows Bush up 50% to Kerry's 47%.

 

[U2democrat]

its so close at this point we may as well throw out the polls. the only polls that matter are on nov 2.

 

[sharky]

The Washington Post poll just released 48 hours ago on Friday shows Bush up 50% to Kerry's 47%.

My bad. I was quoting a NY Times story about the Post poll and should have been more clear.

But one poll, for The Washington Post, showed Mr. Kerry holding a 10-point lead, 53 to 43 percent, in 13 crucial battleground states that may decide the election.

 

[STING2]

I find that to be a bit of a surprise, because most polling I have seen especially on www.electoral-vote.com which tracks all the state polls, does not show such a margin of support in battle ground states. If they see states like California New Jersey, Illinois New York, as battleground states, then I could see there being a 10 point Kerry lead. But if those states are battleground states, then Kerry has already lost the election.

Currently at www.electoral-vote.com, bush is tied or leading in all the states he needs to win for election. He has been consistently ahead most of the time in Florida and Ohio over the past couple of months. I think it could get real tight in these states of course and many a predicting Pennsylvania will be tight as well. We may not know who wins for several weeks after election night.

 

[STING2]

A new ABC news poll can be added to the list of national polls showing Bush ahead despite all of Kerry's efforts in the debates.


GALLUP: BUSH 52% KERRY 44%

NEWSWEEK: BUSH 50% KERRY 44%

ZOGBY: BUSH 48% KERRY 44%

WASHINGTON POST: BUSH 50% KERRY 47%

TIME MAGAZINE: BUSH 48% KERRY 47%

ABC: Bush 50% KERRY 46%

 

[A_Wanderer]

Theres only one poll that matters - well that and the legal challenges following it.

 

[anitram]

We may not know who wins for several weeks after election night.

Jesus, spare us this horror again.

 

[drivemytrabant]

Word is they are already having problems with the florida voting machines....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041018/D85PVQOG1.html

please God not again!

 

[verte76]

Yesterday in his column Robert Novak, who's no dumbbell even though I almost never agree with him, wrote that there may be controversies in both Pennsylvania and Ohio. God, I hope not. I don't want a repeat of 2000.

 

[A_Wanderer]

I hope that whoever wins wins by a convincing margin, otherwise it is going to get really dirty.

 

[U2democrat]

i've been saying for months that there will be floridas all over the country. how painful would that be!

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Yes, there are problems-on CNN this AM they talked about the problems in good ole Fla w/ the touch screens. The seniors had trouble w/ them

 

[verte76]

Damn. You'd think they'd have learned something from 2000 and that whole mess. If this happens again, I'll scream. I hope whoever wins wins by a decent-sized margin and we won't have a controversy. I mean, hell, if it's Bush by six points, give it to me. That's life and the national political situation doesn't dictate how I feel about my life and my emotional well-being. I always just get on with it.

 

[nbcrusader]

Yes, there are problems-on CNN this AM they talked about the problems in good ole Fla w/ the touch screens. The seniors had trouble w/ them

Seniors have had "trouble" with voting for decades. Now, it is a campaign issue and dozens of lawyers have been assigned to the case.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Well I'd say it's more than justified considering what happened last time

My Mother is a senior and has no trouble voting, and wouldn't on a computer, because she's quite computer savvy. Obviously not all seniors are. I'm not familiar w/ these touch screen things but I know it's not really a "computer"

I wouldn't know-the hicksville I live in still has paper ballots

 

[pax]

Everyone should go back to using the manual voting machines we use in my neck of the woods.

I'm serious!

 

[LoveTown]

here we have a slip of paper and we put a checkmark or an X in the big box next to the name of the person we want to vote for. Nice and simple....if you can read you can do it. Hell even if you can't read but can recognize a name you can do it lol

 

[sharky]

Gallop poll has been discredited once again. According to that poll, 85% of the people voting are white, only 19% are liberal and over 30% make more than $75,000 a year. The poll SHOULD be sampled based on 2000 exit polls, which are in the parenthesis below. They obviously are not.

By Political Ideology:
Conservative: 41% (29%)
Moderate: 41% (50%)
Liberal: 18% (20%)

Party ID:
GOP: 39% (35%)
Dem: 35% (39%)
Ind: 25% (27%)

Income:
Over $75,000: 32% (28%)
$50-75,000: 16% (25%)
$30-50,000: 26% (24%)
$20-30,000: 11%
Under $20K: 9%

Race:
White: 85% (81%)
NonWhite: 15% (19%)
Black: (a subset of NonWhite) 8% (10%)

 

[STING2]

Gallop poll has been discredited once again. According to that poll, 85% of the people voting are white, only 19% are liberal and over 30% make more than $75,000 a year. The poll SHOULD be sampled based on 2000 exit polls, which are in the parenthesis below. They obviously are not.

By Political Ideology:
Conservative: 41% (29%)
Moderate: 41% (50%)
Liberal: 18% (20%)

Party ID:
GOP: 39% (35%)
Dem: 35% (39%)
Ind: 25% (27%)

Income:
Over $75,000: 32% (28%)
$50-75,000: 16% (25%)
$30-50,000: 26% (24%)
$20-30,000: 11%
Under $20K: 9%

Race:
White: 85% (81%)
NonWhite: 15% (19%)
Black: (a subset of NonWhite) 8% (10%)

You could do that with just about every poll and it would not come out exactly the same as the 2000 exit polls. So in this poll there is slightly more people making over 75,000, but at the same time there is slightly less people represented who make 50,000 to 75,000. Any poll done will find variations on all of these factors.


GALLUP: BUSH 52% KERRY 44%

NEWSWEEK: BUSH 50% KERRY 44%

ZOGBY: BUSH 48% KERRY 44%

WASHINGTON POST: BUSH 50% KERRY 47%

TIME MAGAZINE: BUSH 48% KERRY 47%

ABC: Bush 50% KERRY 46%

On average, Bush is ahead by more than 4 points based on these polls done this past weekend.

 

[deep]

so Bush can win pop vote by 2-4 %

and Kerry can win electral college.

We need this to happen a couple of times with GOP winning pop vote and losing electoral college.

 

[STING2]

so Bush can win pop vote by 2-4 %

and Kerry can win electral college.

We need this to happen a couple of times with GOP winning pop vote and losing electoral college. [/QUO

Its possible for sure, most polls have shown over the past few weeks that Bush is ahead in both Florida and Ohio and if that continues, Bush will win the election. Bush can't win without Florida, but Kerry can't win without taking at least Ohio or Florida.

 

[verte76]

I just checked the latest Reuters/Zogby poll. It has Kerry and Bush in a dead heat, 46% each. True, some other polls have Bush in the lead. But these are mostly within the margin for error. This game ain't over.

 

[DaveC]

so Bush can win pop vote by 2-4 %

and Kerry can win electral college.

We need this to happen a couple of times with GOP winning pop vote and losing electoral college. [/QUO

Its possible for sure, most polls have shown over the past few weeks that Bush is ahead in both Florida and Ohio and if that continues, Bush will win the election. Bush can't win without Florida, but Kerry can't win without taking at least Ohio or Florida.

Look again, Sting. Kerry is leading in Florida.

The projected final map predicts a Kerry win, 311-227.

Remember that undecideds tend to break for the challenger 2 to 1.

 

[nbcrusader]

Since we are so poll happy, here is a summary

 

[GibsonExplorer]

Try this summary:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html