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Old 04-19-2004, 10:56 PM   #1
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Poll: Bush increasing lead on Kerry

Poll: Bush increasing lead on Kerry

Monday, April 19, 2004 Posted: 7:47 PM EDT (2347 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Bush increased his lead over Sen. John Kerry in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll released Monday, but fewer than half of the respondents said they approved of the way Bush is handling of the war in Iraq.

Bush led Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, 51 percent to 46 percent in the survey of likely voters, which was conducted Friday through Sunday. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults, including a subsample of 767 respondents deemed most likely to vote in November.

When consumer activist Ralph Nader's independent candidacy was factored in, the survey's results were 50 percent for Bush, 44 percent for Kerry and 4 percent for Nader among likely voters.

The previous CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, conducted April 5-8, showed Bush leading Kerry 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

Neither the intensified fighting in Iraq nor the public hearings held by the independent commission investigating the September 11, 2001, attacks appear to have hurt Bush's overall standing -- in part, the current poll suggests, because Kerry has not convinced Americans of his ability to handle those issues.

With the current survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points among likely voters, Bush and Kerry remain locked in a dead heat more than six months before the November election.

A broader survey of registered voters gave the president a 50 percent to 46 percent lead over Kerry in a two-man race. And among all adults, Bush led Kerry 49 percent to 46 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Bush's approval rating held steady in the most recent poll, with 52 percent of those surveyed approving of his performance in office and 45 percent disapproving. The president's handling of terrorism-related issues remained his strongest point in the poll, with adults surveyed approving of his performance, 60 percent to 39 percent.

Forty-six percent approved of Bush's handling of the economy, while 52 percent disapproved -- but those figures were an improvement over the last survey in which 42 percent approved of his economic stewardship.

However, 48 percent said they approved of his handling of the war in Iraq -- a three-point decline from the previous survey -- while 49 percent disapproved.

When asked which candidate would do a good job handling the situation in Iraq as the next president 40 percent backed Bush, 26 percent backed Kerry and 15 percent thought both would do a good job.

A narrow majority, 52 percent, said the war in Iraq was worthwhile, while 46 percent said it was not. That number is down sharply from a year ago, when U.S. troops marched into Baghdad and forced Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to flee.

At that time, 76 percent of those surveyed approved of the war. And in mid-December, when Saddam was captured, 65 percent of those polled said the conflict was worthwhile.

Among likely voters, 39 percent said economic issues would be the most important to them in deciding which candidate to vote for, while 28 percent said terrorism and 22 percent named the war in Iraq.

After more than a month of intensive anti-Kerry television commercials by Bush's re-election campaign, 54 percent of voters said they had a favorable impression of the U.S. senator from Massachusetts, and more voters said they thought Kerry would do a better job handling the economy than the president.

After weeks of Bush campaign attacks accusing Kerry of flip-flops on issues, voters were evenly split, 44 percent to 44 percent, over whether the senator "means what he says and says what he means."

On the same question, 56 percent of voters said Bush means what he says, while 42 percent said they disagreed with that statement.
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Old 04-20-2004, 04:34 AM   #2
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Scary.
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Old 04-20-2004, 08:14 AM   #3
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Sting2: verry interesting, thanks!

Do you remember our discussion about the US economy shortly after GWB became President?
You posted some numbers about unemployment, inflation, misery Index, Real GDP, change in real GDP, Net Exports Year, New Business inc., Business failures and poverty.

If you have new data i'd like to refresh the graph. I think it could be interesting to continue the discussion about the US- and world-economy
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Old 04-20-2004, 08:46 AM   #4
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Alright! Thats great news. I hope Bush wins again.
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Old 04-20-2004, 04:00 PM   #5
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God help us if he does.
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Old 04-20-2004, 04:52 PM   #6
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you mean the nation isn't filled with a bunch of pissed off liberals? say it isn't so...


i've said it before... if the left wanted to defeat bush, they shouldn't have nominated a guy on the far left, like kerry or dean, rather one more towards the center-left... like lieberman. but i can still be proven wrong... getting pumped up over a presidential election poll in april is like getting pumped up over the red sox beating the yankees in april... useless.
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Old 04-20-2004, 04:59 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by 2861U2
Alright! Thats great news. I hope Bush wins again.
Why?
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Old 04-20-2004, 06:01 PM   #8
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Originally posted by tackleberry


Why?
because not all americans believe bush to be an evil, war mongering idiot... although you couldn't tell that while viewing this forum.
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Old 04-20-2004, 06:20 PM   #9
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Originally posted by Headache in a Suitcase
if the left wanted to defeat bush, they shouldn't have nominated a guy on the far left, like kerry or dean
Is John Kerry really seen as being on the far left in US politics? That's quite worrying actually!
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Old 04-20-2004, 06:36 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by Headache in a Suitcase
i've said it before... if the left wanted to defeat bush, they shouldn't have nominated a guy on the far left, like kerry or dean, rather one more towards the center-left... like lieberman.
Lieberman might as well join the Republican Party, and, thus, it really would have been an election between two Republicans.

(Likewise, Swartzenegger, Pataki, and Bloomberg might as well defect to the Democratic Party.)

Ultimately, it is too early to be presumptuous here. The American public has a painfully low attention span, and Kerry hasn't been in the news much lately. Media attention always favors the incumbent, because he can "campaign" even when he isn't doing it officially. Right now, we're in the lull between the end of the primaries and the start of the party conventions. A lot can still happen between now and November.

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Old 04-20-2004, 06:45 PM   #11
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Originally posted by FizzingWhizzbees
That's quite worrying actually!
Kerry or that politicians can get even further to the left?
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Old 04-20-2004, 06:53 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by Klaus
Sting2: verry interesting, thanks!

Do you remember our discussion about the US economy shortly after GWB became President?
You posted some numbers about unemployment, inflation, misery Index, Real GDP, change in real GDP, Net Exports Year, New Business inc., Business failures and poverty.

If you have new data i'd like to refresh the graph. I think it could be interesting to continue the discussion about the US- and world-economy
The only new data I have are:

US Unemployment: 5.7%

US Inflation Rate: 1.7%

These are the latest figures available.
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Old 04-20-2004, 07:03 PM   #13
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Originally posted by nbcrusader
Kerry or that politicians can get even further to the left?
No, that Kerry would be perceived as the far left, when he's so moderate. I guess it shows how far to the right US politics is compared with many other countries. Not that that should be a suprise to anyone, but I thought I'd mention it anyway.
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Old 04-20-2004, 07:04 PM   #14
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as we all know, you can be the most popular choice but still lose the election. does anyone have a state-by-state breakdown. In many states, the election is very close and a switch one way or the other can change election results.

besides, it's one poll.

Zogby. 4/15-17. MoE 3.1%. (4/1-4)
Kerry 47 (47)
Bush 44 (45)
Undecided 7 (6)

Kerry 45 (46)
Bush 45 (45)
Nader 3 (3)
Undecided 6 (5)
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Old 04-20-2004, 07:16 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by sharky
as we all know, you can be the most popular choice but still lose the election. does anyone have a state-by-state breakdown. In many states, the election is very close and a switch one way or the other can change election results.

besides, it's one poll.

Zogby. 4/15-17. MoE 3.1%. (4/1-4)
Kerry 47 (47)
Bush 44 (45)
Undecided 7 (6)

Kerry 45 (46)
Bush 45 (45)
Nader 3 (3)
Undecided 6 (5)
It is one poll, but over the years, I have found the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll to be more accurate than any other in determining the outcome and margin of victory in elections.
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