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Old 03-04-2008, 09:48 PM   #91
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With 19% in, she has a 20 point lead. I'd say it's a no brainer at this stage.

Although, even though she's within 7 of him in Texas, I don't think she'll pull that one off.

Winning Rhode Island was a mild surprise, though. Now she'll be able to claim half the states tonight, which means we march on to Pennsylvania.

And if anyone remembers what happened in PA back in 1980, prepare for this to go down to the wire.
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:50 PM   #92
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
Republicans are very excited.



they have been like that
ever since Bob Dole got that new gig
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:52 PM   #93
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CNN has Obama ahead in Texas, her in Ohio. This little blurb has an interesting theory about why this might not help as much as expected.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...egate-problem/
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:52 PM   #94
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i wonder how many Republicans are voting HRC in OH.
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:54 PM   #95
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2isthebest
CNN has Obama ahead in Texas, her in Ohio. This little blurb has an interesting theory about why this might not help as much as expected.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...egate-problem/
Where does she stand when the delegates from Mich and Florida are added in?
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:56 PM   #96
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
i wonder how many Republicans are voting HRC in OH.
since you are asking

I am fairly confident that many more GOPers have voted for Obama in these primaries than have voted for Hillary


and they will not vote Democratic in Nov.
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:56 PM   #97
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Quote:
Originally posted by deep


Where does she stand when the delegates from Mich and Florida are added in?
They haven't been at this point, nor should they be. We (Michigan) and Florida broke specific party rules and we should live with the consequences. And yes, I would be saying this if Obama had been the candidate on the ballots here and in FL, instead of Hillary.
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:56 PM   #98
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Originally posted by namkcuR
Deep, you are just simply seeing things the way you want to see them. Your claim that Obama can't win the general election is just WRONG.

I mean, a LARGE number of white REPUBLICANS in Texas are saying they would vote for Obama over McCain. Do you not think it would be HUGE if we could take Texas in the general? Not to mention the fact that McCain does not have a whole lot of support in the bible belt, an area that is usually all red but because of McCain's weakness there and Obama's crossover popularity would give Obama a real opening at taking some of its states.

If these things happen, Obama could be in a position where for the first time in at LEAST a decade, the swing states might not be the be-all end-all deciders that they've been in recent years.
Obama is not going to win Texas in the general, although he might do better than previous Democratic candidates. If McCain or any Republican candidate were unable to win Texas, the general election would be one of the greatest landslides in US history. Its unlikely that McCain would lose any of the states that were not battleground states in the previous two elections.

For the general election these are the states you need to think about:

Nevada
Missouri
Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Ohio
Florida

Pennsylvania
Michigan
Winsconsin
New Hampshire
Oregon
Minnesota

Obama is doing well in these states except 3 of them, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All McCain would have to do is win those three and the election would go to McCain. McCain is currently slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, slightly behind in Ohio, and has opened up a 15 point lead on Obama in Florida.

Whats interesting is that Hillary Clinton does better than Obama against McCain in these particular states, states that the Republicans will likely have to win in order to win in November.
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:58 PM   #99
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Perhaps I spoke too soon about Texas. The difference is down to 3%.

Wow.
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:58 PM   #100
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now i cant vote in the primary! why did huckabee have to go?
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:59 PM   #101
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
i wonder how many Republicans are voting HRC in OH.
Hopefully not many since Hillary has a 10 point lead on McCain there, while Obama has been behind McCain recently except for the latest poll which has him up by 3. If Ohio is the deciding state again, right now it would be better for McCain to face Obama.
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Old 03-04-2008, 09:59 PM   #102
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2isthebest


They haven't been at this point, nor should they be. We (Michigan) and Florida broke specific party rules and we should live with the consequences. And yes, I would be saying this if Obama had been the candidate on the ballots here and in FL, instead of Hillary.
Do you think the people in those states should have the option of holding another primary?
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Old 03-04-2008, 10:01 PM   #103
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Quote:
Originally posted by Strongbow





Obama is doing well in these states except 3 of them, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All McCain would have to do is win those three and the election would go to McCain. McCain is currently slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, slightly behind in Ohio, and has opened up a 15 point lead on Obama in Florida.

Whats interesting is that Hillary Clinton does better than Obama against McCain in these particular states, states that the Republicans will likely have to win in order to win in November.
this is exactally how I have been seeing it all along

yes Obama can move a few per cent in the Red states

these are states the go 65 - 35 or 62 - 38

so 5 points wont matter

it really only comes down to about 3 states

and in those 3 states
Hillary is much stronger.
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Old 03-04-2008, 10:01 PM   #104
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Quote:
Originally posted by EdgeIsTooSexy
now i cant vote in the primary! why did huckabee have to go?
Because he didn't have a shot at capturing his party's nomination.

And thankfully so, I mean, he would only set equal rights back about 50 years.
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Old 03-04-2008, 10:02 PM   #105
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Quote:
Originally posted by EdgeIsTooSexy
now i cant vote in the primary! why did huckabee have to go?
Why not?
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