Oh My God...McCain could win if he picks Palin!!!

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It's fun to watch the liberals squirm, not knowing how to go after her. They're worried. They realize, though won't admit, that she was brilliant. Please carry on, Irvine and others.

:lol: Who is squirming? We're all laughing at you guys. You think she's a maverick, you think this was brilliant, etc...

It was a shortsighted hugely miscalculated move, come October you'll be hating this move. I've already seen the hangover in some conservatives this morning.
 
I guess the Republican State Senate President over there in Alaska doesn't think much of of Sarah Palin....

State Senate President Lyda Green said she thought it was a joke when someone called her at 6 a.m. to give her the news.

"She's not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president?" said Green, a Republican from Palin's hometown of Wasilla. "Look at what she's done to this state. What would she do to the nation?"

Rest.
 
:lol: Who is squirming? We're all laughing at you guys. You think she's a maverick, you think this was brilliant, etc...

It was a shortsighted hugely miscalculated move, come October you'll be hating this move. I've already seen the hangover in some conservatives this morning.


Why don't wait for some polling to come in next week before you decide that this was a great miscalculation. I think everyone is going to find out that this race is still about the top of the ticket and in a close race provided this turns out to be a net positive for McCain, it could win the election for him.

I can't see Pawlenty or Romney attracting independents and Democrats the way that Palin could. I seriously doubt that many people that are already in McCain's camp are going to abandon him because of this pick. After all, Republicans are far more loyal to their party's positions than Democrats have been in the recent past.

Will have to wait several days for some polling data before we know what the impact of this selection has been.
 
except the gov pycked a decent vp

dread-

u need to shift your paradigm in thinking:

Saturday, August 30, 2008
Sarah Palin has made a good first impression. Before being named as John McCain’s running mate, 67% of voters didn’t know enough about the Alaska governor to have an opinion. After her debut in Dayton and a rush of media coverage, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 53% now have a favorable opinion of Palin while just 26% offer a less flattering assessment.

Palin earns positive reviews from 78% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats and 63% of unaffiliated voters. Obviously, these numbers will be subject to change as voters learn more about her in the coming weeks. Among all voters, 29% have a Very Favorable opinion of Palin while 9% hold a Very Unfavorable view.

By way of comparison, on the day he was selected as Barack Obama’s running mate, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden was viewed favorably by 43% of voters.
 
There is a poll already out by Rasmussen.

According to fresh data from Rasmussen Reports, Sarah Palin's selection is a mixed bag. Voters have a favorable impression of her by a 53/26 margin; however, by a 29/44 margin, they do not believe that she is ready to be President.

At this stage, it is not clear how impactful her selection will be: 35 percent of voters say they're more likely to vote for McCain with Palin on the ticket, and 33 percent say they're less likely. Indeed, among voters already committed to one or the other candidate, her choice would seem to do little bit entrench partisan feelings: just 6 percent of McCain voters say they're less likely to vote for McCain with Palin on the ticket, while just 9 percent of Obama voters say they're more so. (To see how Joe Biden's numbers compared -- see here. As might be expected, Biden scored better on readiness and worse on personal favorables, with the other numbers being about the same).

What's interesting, however, is that while there is a gender gap in these numbers, it's not the one many observers were anticipating. Rather, along a variety of metrics, men like the Palin choice better than women.

Men have a favorable impression of Palin by a 35-point margin, whereas women have a favorable impression of her by an 18-point margin. Conversely, by a 23-point margin, women do not think Palin is ready to be President, whereas Palin lost this question among men by a considerably smaller 6-point margin.

Why does this gap exist? Don't know, but it may simply be a matter of ideology. Men are generally a bit more conservative than women, and opinions of Palin are very strongly determined by ideology. Conservatives have a favorable impression of her by a 79-8 margin, but this falls to 43-35 among moderates and 26-46 among liberals. Likewise, by a 48-22 margin, conservatives think she's ready to be President, but she loses this question 23-54 among moderates and 9-67 among liberals.

Here.

So I guess all those dumb women who just vote for women meme isn't particularly helpful. She also plays poorly with moderates and independents, which is a group that I thought McCain was targetting.
 
mmmm, positive reviews from 63% of unaffiliated voters. Thats the voting block to watch in the coming days.
 
There is a poll already out by Rasmussen.



Here.

So I guess all those dumb women who just vote for women meme isn't particularly helpful. She also plays poorly with moderates and independents, which is a group that I thought McCain was targetting.

Did you read the following sentence?

At this stage, it is not clear how impactful her selection will be

Plus, even if we were to take the poll seriously at this point, its already a net plus for McCain even though its a small one, 35% to 33%. Plus, among the bases, McCain potentially loses 6% of his voters, but potentially pickes up 9% of Obama's supporters. Assuming that each base is roughly equal, thats a nice little net gain for McCain.

First rule in picking a VP is to do no harm. It appears, although its still early, that McCain choice is passing that first test. Second test will be seeing if she can pick up more independents and Democrats than either Pawlenty or Romney could.
 
I can't see Pawlenty or Romney attracting independents and Democrats the way that Palin could.

I've asked you before why she will attract these independents and Democrats and you haven't answered, so I'm not holding my breath...

Like I said, come October you will all be :doh: yourselves...
 
Did you read the following sentence?

At this stage, it is not clear how impactful her selection will be

No, I skipped over it.

And I think that won't become obvious in the next week either or the one after that.

But the women poll numbers certainly suggest something other than the meme being pushed by every Republican pundit on TV yesterday. I suppose you're just ignoring them though, we with ovaries all think the same way.
 
Would you want Tim Kaine to be next in line?

I know this wasn't aimed at me, but I'll answer anyway: No. I didn't want Obama to pick Kaine. Or Evan Baye. I WANTED Biden, because Biden is the most qualified of of those who were Obama's VP candidates to be president.
 
I've asked you before why she will attract these independents and Democrats and you haven't answered, so I'm not holding my breath...

Like I said, come October you will all be :doh: yourselves...

Just like McCain would never be able to win the Republican nomination right? He was DONE right?

I believe I did answer, but if you didn't see it, she is from outside Washington, further outside Washington than any candidate for the office has ever been. Independents are likely to love that. Democratic strategist have already acknowledged that Obama is having difficulty picking up segments of Hillary Clinton's voting block.

Who do you think Reagan Democrats in Western Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia have more in common with, Joe Biden, Barack Obama, John McCain, or Sarah Palin?

I honestly cannot see Pawlenty or Romney picking up more independents or Democrats for McCain than Sarah Palin can. Unless you can show that this hurts McCain with the Republican base, then its going to be a net positive for McCain.

But will find out soon enough, so I would be careful with your predictions.
 
I know this wasn't aimed at me, but I'll answer anyway: No. I didn't want Obama to pick Kaine. Or Evan Baye. I WANTED Biden, because Biden is the most qualified of of those who were Obama's VP candidates to be president.

Do you think Kaine is qualified to be VP, regardless of whether he is the best selection or not?
 
There is a poll already out by Rasmussen.

Here.

So I guess all those dumb women who just vote for women meme isn't particularly helpful. She also plays poorly with moderates and independents, which is a group that I thought McCain was targetting.


That site:

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

is interesting, I will bookmark it, and revisit it when I have more time.

This article states that Biden has a higher unfavorable than Palin ?

Poll: Voters uncertain on Palin - USATODAY.com

Biden is at about 2 to 1 favorable / unfavorable

Palin is at about 3 to 1 favorable / unfavorable
 
No, I skipped over it.

And I think that won't become obvious in the next week either or the one after that.

But the women poll numbers certainly suggest something other than the meme being pushed by every Republican pundit on TV yesterday. I suppose you're just ignoring them though, we with ovaries all think the same way.

The fact that not all women think the same way is the reason that McCain's choice of Palin has the potential to pick up women in the states that matter, women that Pawlenty and Romney would not be able to get.

Do you really think McCain would pick up more women with Pawlenty or Romney on the ticket?
 
Do you really think McCain would pick up more women with Pawlenty or Romney on the ticket?

I think he'd pick up more moderates voting on economic matters with Romney than he will with Palin. And that their numbers overall would be bigger than whatever small # of women she pulls. I think even more is true of moderates with Ridge.

I honestly don't know enough about Pawlenty to really know who he'd bring in - I thought he'd be a bad choice.
 
Well, the full poll numbers that include Obama's last night of the convention are in, and he was not able to increase the 8 point margin he had, and polling on Friday was already starting to show his Thursday numbers being blunted by McCain's Palin announcement.

Obama's bounce, now that polling over the entire convention period is now in, according to Gallup is 8 points, one point less than he was up by at one point in July.

Will have to see in the coming days where this poll numbers go as the news of Palin sets in, and the Republicans start their convention. Obama does not appear to have achieved a break away lead with his convention despite being touted as the greatest in history by some.

Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Lead 49% to 41%
 
I know this wasn't aimed at me, but I'll answer anyway: No. I didn't want Obama to pick Kaine. Or Evan Baye. I WANTED Biden, because Biden is the most qualified of of those who were Obama's VP candidates to be president.

This whole Palin episode has had one very interesting side effect

it has united Dems, GOP, Independents, Newsmedia on the fact that the top of the Democratic ticket has a serious problem with perception of being qualified.



I will concede that if the election were based on the number 2s only,
Biden would get my vote - because he is more qualified, and
I am comfortable with his very public record of years of service in the Senate.
One would know what to expect.
 
Obama's bounce, now that polling over the entire convention period is now in, according to Gallup is 8 points, one point less than he was up by at one point in July.

It's actually 10 points since he was polling 2 below right before the convention.
 
It's actually 10 points since he was polling 2 below right before the convention.

But only 5 points more than the average lead of 3 points that he has had all summer long. Its technically possible to lose the election even if your up in the popular vote by 3 percentage points.
 
What are you talking about? Biden is the third most liberal senator in the country. Obama completely abandoned his "change" facade to pick someone who is been in the senate for 36 years. As someone on TV said the other day, Obama flinched in his first big decision. He should have gone with a governor, not someone who is part of the problem. How was he being "thoughtful?"

McCain did what McCain does. Think outside the box, pick someone few people expected, who has bucked her own party, something I have seen none of from Obama or Biden.

You really have got to stop thinking about things in such simple terms.

While I don't know if I would agree on the description of Joe Biden as "centrist", all of the other adjectives Irvine used to describe Obama's choice of Biden were 100% accurate.

Understand this: Just because the guy has been in the Senate for 35 years DOES NOT mean that he isn't on board with Obama's message of change. When you make the argument that Obama 'abandoned' his message of change my picking Biden, you demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of what the message really is. It's like you're saying 'change=young' and therefore, 'picking someone who isn't young = no change'. That is a simplistic way of thinking. When Obama speaks of change, he is speaking of a different kind of politics where race and gender don't play as big of a role, where patriotism isn't measured by superficial things like whether you wear a flag pin or not or how little you question the government, where an election can be won without attacking your opponent's character and resorting to unethical means to do so, where we as a nation can feel hopeful instead of cynical, etc. This is aside from any policy stuff. Biden shares the philosophy on ALL of this. You don't have to pick a young person or a woman to keep your message of change, that is simplistic thinking.

He did not flinch at all. He was thoughtful in the regard that he easily could have picked Baye or Kaine and gotten votes not only from more independents because both of them are not as liberal as Biden, but gotten votes from Indiana/Ohio(Baye) or Virginia(Kaine), but instead he chose Biden, and one of the two MAIN reasons he gave for his pick before the pick was even announced was that he picked someone who is READY TO BE PRESIDENT.

McCain did not think outside the box. Seeing as how he only met the woman once and talked to her on the phone one time after that, it doesn't seem like he did much thinking here at all.

Oh, and Palin hasn't bucked her party on any of the big issues. As far as I can see, she'll support the war, she'll support overturning Roe v. Wade, she'll support oil-drilling rather than going down the road of alternate energy, etc etc. I don't see where she's bucking her party.
 
and it is possible to lose the election by 500,000+ votes and get a questionable (one time only ruling :huh: ) Supreme Court opinion.
 
Obama chose Biden, and one of the two MAIN reasons he gave for his pick before the pick was even announced was that he picked someone who is READY TO BE PRESIDENT.


and this is important because there are so many that question if Obama is ready.

And the other main reason?

Foreign policy experience/ credibility?

since Biden has been to Iraq, numerous times in the last four years.
while Obama chose not to go ?
 
mmmm, positive reviews from 63% of unaffiliated voters. Thats the voting block to watch in the coming days.

Plus these PUMA voters on a Pro Hilary website are speaking favorably about Sarah.

http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=26382

If Sarah only picks up 25%-33% of Hilary's 18 million it's a net win for Johnny Mac, and she'll be all over the weekend shows plus the GOP convention this week.

Dems, your ship has hit an iceberg, you shouldn't have snubbed Hil; a scorn woman is now your albatross and the beginning of your demise for 2008.

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One other *important* thing you guys are choosing to ignore.
Sarah cleaned up corruption in Alaska, opposed BIG OIL and took on CORRUPT REPUBLICANS.

When has Obummer or Biden ever publicly took on CORRUPT democrats?

Sarah is her own lady.

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