Oh My God...McCain could win if he picks Palin!!! - Page 26 - U2 Feedback

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Old 08-30-2008, 01:42 PM   #376
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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
There is a poll already out by Rasmussen.

Here.

So I guess all those dumb women who just vote for women meme isn't particularly helpful. She also plays poorly with moderates and independents, which is a group that I thought McCain was targetting.

That site:

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

is interesting, I will bookmark it, and revisit it when I have more time.

This article states that Biden has a higher unfavorable than Palin ?

Poll: Voters uncertain on Palin - USATODAY.com

Biden is at about 2 to 1 favorable / unfavorable

Palin is at about 3 to 1 favorable / unfavorable
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Old 08-30-2008, 01:43 PM   #377
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No, I skipped over it.

And I think that won't become obvious in the next week either or the one after that.

But the women poll numbers certainly suggest something other than the meme being pushed by every Republican pundit on TV yesterday. I suppose you're just ignoring them though, we with ovaries all think the same way.
The fact that not all women think the same way is the reason that McCain's choice of Palin has the potential to pick up women in the states that matter, women that Pawlenty and Romney would not be able to get.

Do you really think McCain would pick up more women with Pawlenty or Romney on the ticket?
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Old 08-30-2008, 01:47 PM   #378
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Do you really think McCain would pick up more women with Pawlenty or Romney on the ticket?
I think he'd pick up more moderates voting on economic matters with Romney than he will with Palin. And that their numbers overall would be bigger than whatever small # of women she pulls. I think even more is true of moderates with Ridge.

I honestly don't know enough about Pawlenty to really know who he'd bring in - I thought he'd be a bad choice.
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Old 08-30-2008, 01:50 PM   #379
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Originally Posted by deep View Post
That site:

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

is interesting, I will bookmark it, and revisit it when I have more time.
I think it's by far the best such website out there. The statistical methodology is impeccable and it's updated almost in real time.
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Old 08-30-2008, 01:53 PM   #380
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I've been at Radiohead all week, so I'm just catching up. This has been an interesting thread.

Anybody poll the pissed-off Hillary voters lately? What do they think of their beloved McCain now?
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Old 08-30-2008, 01:55 PM   #381
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Well, the full poll numbers that include Obama's last night of the convention are in, and he was not able to increase the 8 point margin he had, and polling on Friday was already starting to show his Thursday numbers being blunted by McCain's Palin announcement.

Obama's bounce, now that polling over the entire convention period is now in, according to Gallup is 8 points, one point less than he was up by at one point in July.

Will have to see in the coming days where this poll numbers go as the news of Palin sets in, and the Republicans start their convention. Obama does not appear to have achieved a break away lead with his convention despite being touted as the greatest in history by some.

Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Lead 49% to 41%
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Old 08-30-2008, 01:56 PM   #382
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I know this wasn't aimed at me, but I'll answer anyway: No. I didn't want Obama to pick Kaine. Or Evan Baye. I WANTED Biden, because Biden is the most qualified of of those who were Obama's VP candidates to be president.
This whole Palin episode has had one very interesting side effect

it has united Dems, GOP, Independents, Newsmedia on the fact that the top of the Democratic ticket has a serious problem with perception of being qualified.



I will concede that if the election were based on the number 2s only,
Biden would get my vote - because he is more qualified, and
I am comfortable with his very public record of years of service in the Senate.
One would know what to expect.
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Old 08-30-2008, 01:56 PM   #383
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Originally Posted by Strongbow View Post

Obama's bounce, now that polling over the entire convention period is now in, according to Gallup is 8 points, one point less than he was up by at one point in July.
It's actually 10 points since he was polling 2 below right before the convention.
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Old 08-30-2008, 01:59 PM   #384
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Do you really think McCain would pick up more women
I don't know if he his trying to pick up women these days,

but, I heard his best line was,
"Did you know I was a POW for 5 and 1/2 years?"
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Old 08-30-2008, 01:59 PM   #385
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It's actually 10 points since he was polling 2 below right before the convention.
But only 5 points more than the average lead of 3 points that he has had all summer long. Its technically possible to lose the election even if your up in the popular vote by 3 percentage points.
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Old 08-30-2008, 02:03 PM   #386
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What are you talking about? Biden is the third most liberal senator in the country. Obama completely abandoned his "change" facade to pick someone who is been in the senate for 36 years. As someone on TV said the other day, Obama flinched in his first big decision. He should have gone with a governor, not someone who is part of the problem. How was he being "thoughtful?"

McCain did what McCain does. Think outside the box, pick someone few people expected, who has bucked her own party, something I have seen none of from Obama or Biden.
You really have got to stop thinking about things in such simple terms.

While I don't know if I would agree on the description of Joe Biden as "centrist", all of the other adjectives Irvine used to describe Obama's choice of Biden were 100% accurate.

Understand this: Just because the guy has been in the Senate for 35 years DOES NOT mean that he isn't on board with Obama's message of change. When you make the argument that Obama 'abandoned' his message of change my picking Biden, you demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of what the message really is. It's like you're saying 'change=young' and therefore, 'picking someone who isn't young = no change'. That is a simplistic way of thinking. When Obama speaks of change, he is speaking of a different kind of politics where race and gender don't play as big of a role, where patriotism isn't measured by superficial things like whether you wear a flag pin or not or how little you question the government, where an election can be won without attacking your opponent's character and resorting to unethical means to do so, where we as a nation can feel hopeful instead of cynical, etc. This is aside from any policy stuff. Biden shares the philosophy on ALL of this. You don't have to pick a young person or a woman to keep your message of change, that is simplistic thinking.

He did not flinch at all. He was thoughtful in the regard that he easily could have picked Baye or Kaine and gotten votes not only from more independents because both of them are not as liberal as Biden, but gotten votes from Indiana/Ohio(Baye) or Virginia(Kaine), but instead he chose Biden, and one of the two MAIN reasons he gave for his pick before the pick was even announced was that he picked someone who is READY TO BE PRESIDENT.

McCain did not think outside the box. Seeing as how he only met the woman once and talked to her on the phone one time after that, it doesn't seem like he did much thinking here at all.

Oh, and Palin hasn't bucked her party on any of the big issues. As far as I can see, she'll support the war, she'll support overturning Roe v. Wade, she'll support oil-drilling rather than going down the road of alternate energy, etc etc. I don't see where she's bucking her party.
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Old 08-30-2008, 02:03 PM   #387
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and it is possible to lose the election by 500,000+ votes and get a questionable (one time only ruling ) Supreme Court opinion.
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Old 08-30-2008, 02:15 PM   #388
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Obama chose Biden, and one of the two MAIN reasons he gave for his pick before the pick was even announced was that he picked someone who is READY TO BE PRESIDENT.

and this is important because there are so many that question if Obama is ready.

And the other main reason?

Foreign policy experience/ credibility?

since Biden has been to Iraq, numerous times in the last four years.
while Obama chose not to go ?
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Old 08-30-2008, 02:23 PM   #389
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mmmm, positive reviews from 63% of unaffiliated voters. Thats the voting block to watch in the coming days.
Plus these PUMA voters on a Pro Hilary website are speaking favorably about Sarah.

http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/d...ad.php?t=26382

If Sarah only picks up 25%-33% of Hilary's 18 million it's a net win for Johnny Mac, and she'll be all over the weekend shows plus the GOP convention this week.

Dems, your ship has hit an iceberg, you shouldn't have snubbed Hil; a scorn woman is now your albatross and the beginning of your demise for 2008.

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Old 08-30-2008, 02:31 PM   #390
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One other *important* thing you guys are choosing to ignore.
Sarah cleaned up corruption in Alaska, opposed BIG OIL and took on CORRUPT REPUBLICANS.

When has Obummer or Biden ever publicly took on CORRUPT democrats?

Sarah is her own lady.

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