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Old 04-20-2004, 06:49 PM   #1
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Odds on that God exists, says scientist

A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists

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Dr Stephen Unwin has used a 200-year-old formula to calculate the probability of the existence of an omnipotent being. Bayes' Theory is usually used to work out the likelihood of events, such as nuclear power failure, by balancing the various factors that could affect a situation
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The Manchester University graduate, who now works as a risk assessor in Ohio, said the theory starts from the assumption that God has a 50/50 chance of existing, and then factors in the evidence both for and against the notion of a higher being.
This is a great example of how easily the Bayes theory can be "abused" by introducing arbitrary assumptions. Granted, no Bayes statistics without arbitrary assumptions but come on, the guy starts of with a 50% change God exists and goes on from there. I'm glad this guy doesn't work as a risk assessor at my workplace.

Anyway, I was happy to read that apparently all this is meant to spark a debate about which events or concepts can be attributed to a supernatural being, but I wonder how many people are just going to copy the 67%.
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Old 04-20-2004, 07:31 PM   #2
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I love this part:

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Mr Sharp said William Hill does take bets on the second coming, which currently stand at 1,000/1. For this confirmation is needed from the Archbishop of Canterbury.
How do you play this bet? And what does this say about the Archbishop - that he will still be around after the 2nd coming to confirm it???
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Old 04-20-2004, 09:27 PM   #3
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Is that the odds of the Second Coming happening *at all*, or of it happening, like, tomorrow?
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Old 04-20-2004, 09:48 PM   #4
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i've got the second comming in a parlay with the nets and the lakers over at sands.
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Old 04-21-2004, 12:39 PM   #5
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67% chance - and I thought it was obvious.
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Old 04-21-2004, 05:40 PM   #6
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89% chance I'll be coming back to San Pedro Sula.......and don't ask me why....
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Old 04-21-2004, 09:31 PM   #7
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why...have you been here before?
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Old 04-22-2004, 04:00 AM   #8
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With the proclamation that there's a 67% chance that God exists this scientist has convinced me that he doesn't.

BTW, about taking bets, in the UK there are bookmakers that take bets about the end of the world. I always wonder who wants to place those bets. I mean, when you're right, you have no opportunity to claim it.

C ya!

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Old 04-22-2004, 07:53 AM   #9
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@BEB: I said don't ask me why!!!

But okay....'Cause I still have a customer card of the Konica Photo Shop just north off the main square and still haven't used any of is benefits yet!!!
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Old 04-22-2004, 08:35 AM   #10
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No TAB is going to cough up on 1000 to 1 odds

Hmm, except maybe the bookie who took a 5 mil bet on Lonhro winning his last race.
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Old 04-22-2004, 04:04 PM   #11
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Oh...lol...did you like it here? sort of sabotaging the thread but I'm sure DrTeeth won't mind
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Old 04-24-2004, 10:11 AM   #12
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this guy reminds me of my college mate

i asked him "whats the probability of this building falling down in the next 12 hours"...showing a building..

he said " either it will fall or it wont..so there are 2 outcomes..one of them is favorable..so the answer is 1/2 ..

some people never understand Probability...


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Old 04-24-2004, 10:22 AM   #13
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that reminds me of my maths teacher trying to send me even more insane over numbers by saying there is no such thing really as chance and all that. if something will happen, it's a 100% outcome. there are no odds.



now im confused again.
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