"October Surprise"

[drivemytrabant]

With October now upon us, I now sit and wait for the much-hyped "October Surprise." This possibility has been mentioned by everyone from Madeline Albright to Teresa Heinz Kerry. Now my question to you guys on the left is this: would you really be opposed to a high level capture in the month of October? Can you really say that if our military brought in bin Laden or Zawquri that you would not welcome it? No matter what the month?

 

[DrTeeth]

I would love to see a dead Bin Laden, but don't mind me checking the body for signs of frostbite.

 

[nbcrusader]

Any positive news over the next 30 days and we will see someone theorizing that it happened to manipulate the election for GWB.

 

[U2democrat]

Any positive news over the next 30 days and we will see someone theorizing that it happened to manipulate the election for GWB.

and vice versa.

and if a democrat were in office we'd say the same thing.

that's politics. and i love it!

 

[kobayashi]

Any positive news over the next 30 days and we will see someone theorizing that it happened to manipulate the election for GWB.

i dont understand your reaction.

it should be expected that GWB uses these tools to manipulate the election.

the time for eyerolling was when colour coded threat levels were introduced...or GWB was first selected.

 

[Se7en]

i dont understand your reaction.

it should be expected that GWB uses these tools to manipulate the election.

the time for eyerolling was when colour coded threat levels were introduced...or GWB was first selected.

agreed.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

if perchance UBL or zarqawi were to be captures this month, then yes... it would be a huge boost to GWB's re-election. and if anyone were to accuse the president of "rigging" the capture for political gain, said person would reeeeally have to have some concrete proof before making this accusation. perhaps they could get dan rather to print up some of that proof for them.

 

[verte76]

I'd be happy to see OBL captured, but yes, people would talk about the political implications of an October bust of a big time terrorist. They can always grab al-Zarkawi, too.

 

[nbcrusader]

the time for eyerolling was when colour coded threat levels were introduced

Is your memory that short? The loudest cry following 9-11 was "WE SHOULD BE WARNED!"


Now that a warning system is in place, you simply replace the cry with "NOW, YOU ARE MANIPULATING US!"

 

[nbcrusader]

and if anyone were to accuse the president of "rigging" the capture for political gain, said person would reeeeally have to have some concrete proof before making this accusation.

Accusations of vast right-wing conspiracies need no proof....

 

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

I would love to see a dead Bin Laden, but don't mind me checking the body for signs of frostbite.

Exactly. Come on now, a Bin Laden capture right before the November election? I'm not saying I wouldn't be happy, but it's a bit suspicious.

 

[DrTeeth]

The loudest cry following 9-11 was "WE SHOULD BE WARNED!"

Yeah, when there's a terrorist threat, not every time the Democrats 'threaten' to get on the frontpages.

 

[kobayashi]

Is your memory that short? The loudest cry following 9-11 was "WE SHOULD BE WARNED!"


Now that a warning system is in place, you simply replace the cry with "NOW, YOU ARE MANIPULATING US!"

i merely mean to point out that the various tools developed by this administration, whether they be terror levels or boogie men, should fully be expected to be used to their advantage. imo, to expect otherwise is naive.

it isnt about a 'vast right wing conspiracy'.

it is about the existence of these tools and the evident common sense in how and when to use them. of course the evident-ness of that common sense (the fact that this 'october surprise' is half expected) may dictate that it not be used at all.

im sure they're focus grouping it right now to see which way it best falls.

 

[sharky]

I would LOVE to see bin Laden captured. I would have LOVED to see him captured any time in the PAST THREE YEARS! After three years of not finding him and diverting a large majority of our troops to Iraq, it would look very suspicious if he showed up in October. After three years of nothing, you find him right before the election? Suspicious.

And on that note, I give you this: http://osamasweepstakes.com/

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

the men who planned the 9/11 attacks are either behind bars or dead... UBL is merely a figurehead. that said, he must be caught.

 

[pax]

The October Surprise is going to be the K/E campaign unleashing their most formidable ally yet...

...

...U2democrat.

 

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

pax, I love your new avatar. Too squeaky clean adorable.

 

[Anirban]

bin laden merely a figurehead? he's been on the cia's most wanted list for more than 10 years. he's personally responsible for the training of thousands of al qaeda members. saying bin laden is a figurehead is like saying a coach has nothing to do with a team's success. if he is found in october, it will be VERY suspicious not just because democrats would want to reverse any political gain bush might receive ... but because they've had 3 years to do it and have failed. but i think you're right, any cry by democrats that claim bush is trying to steal the election and "just happened to find" bin laden would have to be very well supported or it could backfire.

 

[sharky]

the men who planned the 9/11 attacks are either behind bars or dead... UBL is merely a figurehead. that said, he must be caught.

Really? So then we don't need the terror alert system anymore? New York is completely safe? We don't need to worry about Ayman al-Zawahri? Really? Because last time I checked Tom Ridge still had a job and was still scaring us with the whole "We're going to be attacked before the election!!!!!!" crap.

Woohoooooo! I'm safe! See you all later, I'm going to Times Square to scare to the tourists now that there is NO WAY the city will ever be attacked again.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

did UBL plan the 9/11 attacks? no... does he plan most of al qaeda's attacks? no... he is the spiritual and at one point financial leader of the group. figurehead may have been too strong of a word in the over-all scheme of things, but as far as 9/11 goes, yes... he was just a figurehead.

the men who did the planning of the 9/11 attacks are either dead or captured. does that mean we're safe? of course not... they weren't the only men who want to attack us. there are thousands like them out there. UBL was not staying in Hamburg when the attacks were planned. UBL did not board the planes that day.

there is this assumption out there that after we catch UBL everything will be fine and dandy again. are you naive enough to believe that if we catch UBL, we will then be at less risk than we're at now? that there won't be someone to replace him? for all we know, the man may be dead already, yet terrorist attacks continue around the world.

is UBL a threat? yes... a huge one. but he is not the biggest threat. the biggest threat is not any one person, it's the idea of jihadism it's self... the idea that UBL preaches. the idea that many more islamic leaders preach, and will continue to preach when UBL is dead and gone... if he isn't already.

this is THE whole point... and why i support the bush adminstration still despite not agreeing with all their actions. the jihad against america and the west is bigger than just one man. it's bigger than UBL.

i'm not trying to downplay the importance of capturing UBL. i lost friends on 9/11, too. i want the man to burn. but i'm not so naive to think that capturing and killing him is the end all.

 

[sharky]

But what about Zawahri? What about Saudi Arabia and the terrorists they are harboring? Why are we protecting them? And why focus on the planning? Who paid for 9/11? Why didn't we not catch him three years ago?

You make a valid point, Headache. We won't be completely safe with bin Laden gone. But we also are informed about what's going on. I think you said you read the commission report -- it's sitting on my table at home, I'm just not ready to relive all of it like that just yet so I haven't read it. But the problem is that most people in this country WILL VOTE for Bush if they find him. It would give him a huge boost in the polls and people will be persuaded. And frankly, the idea of having bin Laden gone would psychologically make me feel safer. Still won't make me vote for Bush though.

I find it interesting, Headache, that we both live in this same city with similar experiences -- particularly with 9/11 -- and have such different views. hmmm....not good or bad, just interesting.

 

[Flying FuManchu]

People mention Saudi Arabia and I was wondering what can the US do to Saudi Arabia (if they can even be considered our enemies) that would actually help the US?

If I was voting, my vote would go to Bush if those two were captured in October. I wouldn't doubt the timing of it (even though the little conspiracy theorist in my head would say something) just b/c I'm not that negative.

 

[pax]

This is by far my most popular avatar ever...considering that I've used both Bono AND Jeff Buckley in my previous ones.

 

[iota]

My prediction:

The October surprise will have more to do with Iraqi documents surfacing clearly linking Hussein not only to al-Qaeda, but Sumalia as well. Once these are released, the Kerry campaign will implode. They will have put all their eggs in a basket that will be proven wrong. (I think the documents have been witheld this long to give them enough rope to hang themselves.) And, the release will be impossible to trace back to the White House, for various reasons.

Just a little conspiracy theorizing....

 

[Flying FuManchu]

I meant to say that if Osama and Zarqawi were captured, I would lean toward voting for Bush/ Cheney... geez... I need to look over my posts more carefully.

 

[deep]

Really? So then we don't need the terror alert system anymore?

We defiinately need it,

at least until after the election.

 

[STING2]

I would LOVE to see bin Laden captured. I would have LOVED to see him captured any time in the PAST THREE YEARS! After three years of not finding him and diverting a large majority of our troops to Iraq, it would look very suspicious if he showed up in October. After three years of nothing, you find him right before the election? Suspicious.

And on that note, I give you this: http://osamasweepstakes.com/

The troops in Iraq are primarily armored and mechanized divisions with heavy tanks and APC's that would never be used in Afghanistans mountains to hunt for BIN LADIN! This idea that troops were diverted is total rubbish. Just ask the CENTCOM commander at the time, GENERAL TOMMY FRANKS! CENTCOM covers operations in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

 

[DaveC]

PREDICTION: Osama comes out on October 30th.

Bet on it.