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Old 08-22-2012, 05:22 PM   #676
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3 - If Romney wins all three of those major swing states, he's still 11 electoral votes short of victory. The only paths to the win from there are to either nab Virginia or get the less likely combo of Colorado and Iowa.
Wisconsin is now in play.
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Old 08-22-2012, 05:25 PM   #677
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like I said

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all the other stars and planets would have to line up perfectly.
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Old 08-22-2012, 07:37 PM   #678
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Wisconsin is now in play.
No, it's not. The only polls with a Romney lead are partisan and give him a 1% advantage over Obama whereas the rest of the polls have Obama winning by 3-6%. Compounding things further is that the polls recently conducted with Romney in the lead come right after the usual VP bounce of a few points.

However, I don't think it's impossible that Romney wins in Wisconsin, but I think the other key swing states would fall first in that scenario, making Wisconsin an unnecessary win. On top of it, the GOP isn't going to waste much time or money on that state when the ones I mentioned earlier are do-or-die.
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Old 08-22-2012, 07:59 PM   #679
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it is kind of funny
when one starts flipping the so called 7-8 undecided states
all Obama needs is FL and OH and it is over
they could have two or 3 of the leaning states wrong, MN could go GOP

but then if you play around with it a bit you can end up at a pretty close electoral election, and there are a couple of scenarios where it could be 269-269,

which most likely would flip it to Romney
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Old 08-22-2012, 08:40 PM   #680
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In the case of 269-269, I think there's somewhat of a chance that Romney could be president and Biden could be VP, which would be fun.
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Old 08-22-2012, 10:07 PM   #681
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In the case of 269-269, I think there's somewhat of a chance that Romney could be president and Biden could be VP, which would be fun.
Obviously, Republicans will hold the house regardless and Romney would be elected President. But what the hell happens if it's 50-50 in the Senate? It says that the sitting Vice President can't be the tie-breaking vote....

Regardless, while the odds of the senate being 50-50 after this election are extremely high, the 269 to 269 scenario is pretty unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely.
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Old 08-22-2012, 10:11 PM   #682
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On top of this, while the House is supposed to immediately vote for President, if the Democrats simply refused to show up, they could avoid the vote taking place. Under that scenario, the Vice-President elect from the Senate would become Acting President.

Theoretically....

1) 269 tie

2) Democrats refuse to vote in House

3) Senate votes for Biden by 51-49 vote

4) Biden becomes "President"

Of course, the House would eventually be forced to vote on the President before anything else. And Romney would get his way.
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Old 08-22-2012, 10:18 PM   #683
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Obviously, Republicans will hold the house regardless and Romney would be elected President. But what the hell happens if it's 50-50 in the Senate? It says that the sitting Vice President can't be the tie-breaking vote....
What says that? The twelfth amendment, which outlines election procedure, says "a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to [for?] a choice". I'm not sure if that would support allowing Biden to vote or not in the case of 50-50. If it's stuck at 50-50, and can't get un-stuck... well, who knows?

Unfortunately, Democrats can't boycott a vote in the House to effectively prevent a quorum. The POTUS is chosen by the house in an Electoral College tie, but not in the form of a straight vote. Rather, representatives from each state get together, choose a POTUS (who knows what would happen in a tie?), and each state casts a ballot. Each state's vote is equal in this, and I'm almost positive that there's no chance of that not going GOP, though I haven't looked into numbers. Two thirds of states must be present in this final vote, but the constitution says that only one representative is necessary from each state. So the Democrats could only effectively boycott in states where they control all of the representatives, which I doubt is a third of states. Also, even if it was doable, it would stink of disgustingly played politics and cheating the system, even worse than 2000. Even as an Obama supporter and someone who would much rather see Biden in the White House than Romney, I would be against that sort of maneuver.

We need an instant runoff popular vote system. Badly.
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Old 08-22-2012, 10:27 PM   #684
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However...



Not implausible, but not really likely either. I'd prefer a Romney presidency to what hell would break loose in the weeks following a 269-269 split.
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Old 08-22-2012, 10:58 PM   #685
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Man, I hope Iowa doesn't go red.

(Says the girl whose favorite color, ironically, is red.)
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Old 08-22-2012, 11:32 PM   #686
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Quote:
Originally Posted by INDY500

Wisconsin is now in play.

This week.
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Old 08-22-2012, 11:37 PM   #687
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For those interested in a map, this is where things are currently sitting:



The data for this are from Real Clear Politics's current polling averages. This map, of course, looks really rosy for Obama, but it doesn't tell the whole story. A lot of states have gotten somewhat tighter in the past few weeks, I believe. A lot of the polls averaged into this are several weeks old (the oldest I see are late July), and newer polls tend to point a little more favorably to Romney than do older polls. However, most of the newest polls averaged in are from Rasmussen and Purple Strategies, which trend to the right of reality.
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Old 08-23-2012, 02:46 AM   #688
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Rasmussen was the most accurate in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections. Almost exact predictions. Can't deny that.

Intrade has it 57 to 42, Obama. Wow.

Florida is not going Blue. At least I don't think.
Romney needs 64 electoral votes according to that map. +29 for Florida.
35 is a much easier path.
Iowa, Colorado and Ohio is 33 and doable.
Could Romney get New Hampshire for 4 more?
Virginia is going to be huge as well but I suspect it goes Blue.

ETA
Apparently Obama up +6 in NH according to one recent poll.
Romney +2 in FL and statistical tie in OH according to Rasmussen.
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:14 PM   #689
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I'm not overly familiar with polling companies; I've just heard that Rasmussen tends to skew right of reality, not just right of other polls. But if they are more reliable, this is a map based on their current numbers:



They don't have recent polls for Pennsylvania, but I just shaded it blue because... it's gonna be blue. Ohio and Colorado are ties right now according to them. Obama would win under this scenario with just Ohio. Romney would need both Ohio and Colorado to win outright. Obama winning Colorado and Romney winning Ohio would be another 269-269 tie (ugh).
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Old 08-23-2012, 12:27 PM   #690
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In 2008 I thought FiveThirtyEight was the most accurate. I like that he collects data from the various polls.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
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