Obama General Discussion, vol. 4

[anitram]

Rasmussen was the most accurate in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections. Almost exact predictions. Can't deny that.

That's not really accurate. Rasmussen was the closest when it came to the final presidential poll - meaning the last poll immediately preceding the election. They are shitty when it comes to state polls and not as reliable this far out from November.

Best way of looking at polls is to aggregate them and then dump clear outliers (though monitor the outliers to see if they're catching a particular sentiment early).

 

[Popmartijn]

In 2008 I thought FiveThirtyEight was the most accurate. I like that he collects data from the various polls.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

I always check the Electoral-Vote.com website for the polling (and editorial) commentary.
ElectoralVote

It also shows the data from various (non-partisan) pollsters. This time, in addition to the general map of the polling data, it also has a map without Rasmussen data. It also has a note explaining the exclusion ( Note about Rasmussen ). Bottom line, it seems that Rasmussen's methodology for conducting polls is a bit flawed, as well as (probably) its model of the electorate, resulting in a structural bias.

 

[PhilsFan]

K - 12 education is something that should be provided at public costs.

Workers, taxpayers should not be required to pick up the tab for higher education. I chose an inexpensive college and worked 2 jobs when I went to college. Granted my grades were not very good. I also chose to pretty much stay away from the students loans they kept encouraging me to take out. I just did not want the debt.

When you went to college, it was possible to pay for it by working while you were there. That is no longer the case. I worked 40 hours a week for the last 3.5 months with no classes to shorten my work week, and I made enough in that time to cover about a third of the tuition for this school year, and about a fifth of my total costs.

 

[anitram]

When you went to college, it was possible to pay for it by working while you were there. That is no longer the case. I worked 40 hours a week for the last 3.5 months with no classes to shorten my work week, and I made enough in that time to cover about a third of the tuition for this school year, and about a fifth of my total costs.

That just means that deep will tell you that you should have gone to the State University of the South-Southeastern North Dakota to save on costs.

 

[yolland]

I went to a public university in the 90s and even by then, working full-time all the way through wasn't enough to avoid the necessity for loans. And it took me almost a decade to finish paying off my (again, public university) grad school loans. In many fields in the humanities and social sciences, most professors nowadays will actively discourage students from going on to grad school in their field unless they're being offered a full scholarship (rare); otherwise, your chances of being able to keep up with your payments afterwards are slim.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Is there even such a thing as an inexpensive college these days? Don't think so.

Sorry but it really gets to sound like I walked barefoot through three feet of snow to get to school. And a little like that Romney out of touch attitude. I feel nothing but sympathy for anyone trying to get a college education these days, anyone who doesn't have wealthy parents. I took out loans and was able to pay them off relatively quickly (compared to what it takes now) and only got one $500 scholarship from my church. Luckily my mother came into some money and eventually paid off my balance (what was left of it, I think around $2500) years later. I don't even remember how many years it took to pay them off, but it was nothing compared to what it is now. Out of sensitivity I'd probably be embarrassed to say how much it cost me and my parents for four years at two private colleges.

Granted I lived at home for all four years and commuted. I also worked part time. But these days to live at home and even go to a public college/university is prohibitively expensive. Unless you're lucky enough to get a full athletic or academic scholarship.

 

[digitize]

I am lucky to live in a state (Texas) whose flagship public university is worth going to and has tuition around $10,000 per year. However, state funding is collapsing pretty quickly while the state is still requiring the school to enroll a very large number of students, though that number has fallen somewhat in the past couple of years. I've also stumbled into a fair amount of scholarship money, though that takes work... and it's of the $1000 here, $2000 there variety that takes awhile to add up, though I'm obviously incredibly thankful for it. I had excellent academic stats in high school and I have a high GPA now, so it takes a lot of work to get that money. And I commute, for financial reasons, which I despise... but I should count my blessings on the whole. I'm jealous of older people who talk going to my university in the 50s and paying something like $100 per year in tuition, but I'll probably not have to take any undergraduate debt with the three majors that I'm working towards. College is a tough thing to deal with nowadays.

 

[yolland]

There certainly aren't many colleges left that are "inexpensive" for the bulk of the students attending them. If you're from an upper middle class family and your parents are helping you out somewhat, then a regional campus of your state's public university system should qualify as inexpensive. But if you're an older student with no parental support and quite possibly kids of your own--which describes a large proportion of the students at those schools--then for you it's not "inexpensive" at all, and in fact if you look at breakdowns of student debt nationwide, that's exactly who owes most of it: community college students, regional public college students. Besides, if your background includes being a high-achieving student who attended good schools growing up (which doesn't at all necessarily mean your family's well-off), frankly you'd quite likely be bored and understimulated at such a college. (Although, many of your classmates will have a more mature and disciplined outlook on life than some of the pampered upper-class kids you'll encounter at more exclusive schools, which isn't all bad.)

 

[PhilsFan]

My mother (who is in her 50s) worked for the college she attended (a small public college in southern PA) and I believe actually made money while paying off her tuition. What a novel concept.

 

[financeguy]

Is Barack Obama a Tory? - Spectator Blogs

 

[deep]

Charlie Crist continues transformation with Barack Obama endorsement - Tampa Bay Times

 

[INDY500]

Just in case some of you still didn't understand what a RINO is.

 

[PhilsFan]

I think it's more like this.

 

[digitize]

Will McAvoy is awesome, but I nearly laugh out loud whenever he's called a Republican.

 

[Irvine511]

Just in case some of you still didn't understand what a RINO is.

Purge! Purge! Purity! Purity! The liberal media finally got to him!

Remember, everyone is lying to you but us!

 

[mobvok]

Speaking of college costs, I don't understand why student loans are nondischargable in bankruptcy. This is a great article about why it's such insane policy to single out one class of borrower.

One might talk about "responsibility", but the threat of bankruptcy plays a key role in ensuring that lenders are responsible in how they disperse money. Responsibility must cut both ways.

I doubt Obama will do much of importance legislatively if he wins another term since he has little interest in supporting reform of the filibuster, but hopefully this issue can be fixed without becoming a partisan identifier like cap and trade did.

 

[deep]

Speaking of college costs, I don't understand why student loans are nondischargable in bankruptcy. .

a borrower must qualify for every other loan, a car loan, a home loan, even credit cards look at income and credit history.

students can't qualify for loans based on income, no one would or should give them a loan if they could discharge it. also, car and home loans are not discharged in bks. Income and state taxes, and property taxes are not discharged. should people that don't pay their student loans have their degrees taken back?

 

[deep]

Virginia is leaning GOP

Gabby Douglas Says Other Gymnasts Called Her Slave

 

[INDY500]

Purge! Purge! Purity! Purity!

I look forward to the pro-life, pro-traditional marriage speakers at the Dem convention.

 

[mobvok]

deep, did you read the article I linked to?

 

[PhilsFan]

I look forward to the pro-life, pro-traditional marriage speakers at the Dem convention.

There hopefully will not be, seeing as it is the 21st century and all.

 

[BVS]

I look forward to the pro-life, pro-traditional marriage speakers at the Dem convention.

How many of them are married with children?

 

[INDY500]

There hopefully will not be, seeing as it is the 21st century and all.

Because of embryology, maternal-fetal medicine and ultrasound technology I'd argue it's actually easier (using reason and science no less!!) to be pro-life in the 21st century. And polls reflect this shift.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

So how come we still have to deal with Republicans being against things like stem cell research?

Any advancements in medicine and science that can reduce the chances of a woman having to resort to an abortion are a wonderful thing. But we're still not at a perfect world sort of scenario yet in regards to that. Hence, remaining pro-choice.

Besides that, you can be as pro-life as you please. It's still my body, though, and I get to have the final say on what I want to do with it.

 

[Irvine511]

I look forward to the pro-life, pro-traditional marriage speakers at the Dem convention.

Good luck keeping the Christofascists hand-in-hand with the Koch brothers.

 

[digitize]

It wouldn't surprise me if there were pro-lifers speaking at the DNC. It's not that difficult to find pro-life Democrats, though it's hard for them to have the same sort of passion that most pro-life Republicans have about the issue. As far as anti-gay marriage (pro-traditional marriage? Although I'm pro-gay marriage and I have no issue with "traditional marriage", whatever the hell that means)... I don't think that there are that many prominent Democrats who aren't at least for civil unions, and I do think the party has shifted to the left as a whole on the issue recently.

On the whole, the GOP is definitely the more ideologically compact party, for better or for worse. That certainly has benefits for them. Economically, "the left" (and the Democratic Party, representing fairly broad microcosm of "the left") is fairly varied, from not too far to the left of the GOP to great society types to Chartilists who believe that the solution to everything is printing money.

 

[dazzledbylight]

not quite "7 Days in May" but......

From news.uk.msn.com/world

Four US soldiers plotted to assassinate Barack Obama and overthrow the government, a court has heard.

Prosecutors in Georgia said they formed an anarchist militia within the military.

One, private Michael Burnett, has pleaded guilty to manslaughter and gang charges in the killings last December of former soldier Michael Roark and his girlfriend, 17-year-old Tiffany York.

Burnett said that Roark, who had just left the army, knew of the militia group's plans and was killed because he was "a loose end."

Prosecutor Isabel Pauley said the group bought 87,000 dollars (£55,000) of guns and bomb-making materials and plotted to take over Fort Stewart, bomb targets in Savannah and Washington state, as well as assassinate the president.

%^@&%$%^#$#&%@%!#%$# !!!!!!!!!

if this has already be mentioned, sorry

and i do know that Presuident Obama has had the most death threats since he took office

 

[dazzledbylight]

from Mothers Jones Magazine


The Republican ticket is flooding the airwaves with commercials that develop two themes designed to turn the presidential contest into a racially freighted resource competition pitting middle class white voters against the minority poor.

Ads that accuse President Obama of gutting the work requirements enacted in the 1996 welfare reform legislation present the first theme....Sharp criticism has done nothing to hold back the Romney campaign from continuing its offensive — in speeches and on the air — because the accuracy of the ads is irrelevant as far as the Republican presidential ticket is concerned. The goal is not to make a legitimate critique, but to portray Obama as willing to give the “undeserving” poor government handouts at the expense of hardworking taxpayers.

....The racial overtones of Romney’s welfare ads are relatively explicit. Romney’s Medicare ads are a bit more subtle....In essence, the ad is telling senior voters that the money they paid to insure their own access to Medicare after they turn 65 is going, instead, to pay for free health care for poor people who are younger than 65.

My dad who was white (& a professional) (died last year) as was my mom and me & sib..... well around 35+/- years ago not sure about Welfar but he had to go on food stamps after he lost his job for several months.

Most people overall on welfare are white.

There by the grace of God/little bad luck and hard work goes those middle class people who have never hade misfortunes like that- in general. Not talking about the financial meltdown we had underv President Bush and it's rough aftermath of the past few years.


OH and btw since baby boomers (born ?46- 60) now 52 - 66 became such a large group in the 80's their Soc Sec Taxes were/are increased not only to pay for the older people getting SS from that time on BUT to also pay for themselves.

 

[PhilsFan]

No one for gay marriage has ever been called anti-marriage. Because it would be ridiculous. Because GOP members might have to actually put up an argument, a debate. I will listen as I attend my straight cousin's wedding this month about why gays should not marry. Hopefully the GOP can tell me why I am doing God's work and why the gays should not be allowed. If they do not, why would I ever argue with the hypocrites again?

 

[cobl04]

Besides that, you can be as pro-life as you please. It's still my body, though, and I get to have the final say on what I want to do with it.

Unbelievable that you could hypothetically live in a state where you don't get a choice. How would you defend that Indy?