May 18, 2006
Prepared by: Lee Hudson Teslik
Montenegro has set a May 21 referendum on final independence from Serbia. Opinion surveys show a majority intending to vote for separation, but independence is no sure thing. Under EU-brokered regulations, a 55 percent majority will be needed to move ahead with secession, and polls show the pro-separatists' margin in a “gray zone,” between 50 and 55 percent (Serbianna). Milo Djukanovic, Montenegro's pro-independence prime minister, has said that he will move ahead toward secession even with just a simple majority. The possible outcomes of this scenario are analyzed in this new CFR Background Q&A.
Should the vote succeed, however, tiny Montenegro, often overlooked in a tumultuous neighborhood, could open a final phase in the crumbling of the former Yugoslavia. All that remains of the federation is a two-country union, officially named "Serbia and Montenegro," which encompasses Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian-dominated province that is also seeking national sovereignty. A number of experts now predict a Kosovar solution in the near future, though most do not believe Montenegro's elections will have much of an effect on that process. A December 2005 report by the International Crisis Group emphasizes that the results of Montenegro's referendum should have no bearing on Kosovo's campaign for independence. Serbs, at least, seem markedly pessimistic about their prospects of retaining control, particularly in Montenegro; in a recent survey by the Balkan news agency DTT-net, 56 percent say they believe Montenegro would gain independence.
The position of the European Union remains unclear. It was the EU, after all, that negotiated the 55 percent target for the referendum (EU Observer), when a simple majority would have almost guaranteed the vote's success. Some experts say the EU may have set the bar high because it didn't want to see the referendum pass (the rationale being that independence—or, at least, independence now—would create instability in the Balkans). But experts say it's more likely the EU set a high target to stave off the threat of boycott by Montenegro's large ethnic Serb minority. The United States, for its part, has remained more or less mum on the issue; this 2005 Special Report by CFR Senior Fellow William Nash argues for a more active approach.
Another question is whether an independent Montenegro would stand a better chance of admittance into the EU. Many Montenegrins consider themselves handcuffed to a country which has burned its European bridges (Deutsche Welle) by failing to arrest and hand over a number of war criminals, including Ratko Mladic. Separatists argue that independence would "dramatically increase" Montenegro's chances of admittance (RFE/RL). As this analysis from England's Daily Telegraph points out, the recent spat over Mladic has almost certainly strengthened the hand of Montenegro's pro-separation forces.
Montenegro was last independent in 1918 under King Nikola
http://www.cfr.org/publication/10716/montenegro_weighs_independence.html
Prepared by: Lee Hudson Teslik
Montenegro has set a May 21 referendum on final independence from Serbia. Opinion surveys show a majority intending to vote for separation, but independence is no sure thing. Under EU-brokered regulations, a 55 percent majority will be needed to move ahead with secession, and polls show the pro-separatists' margin in a “gray zone,” between 50 and 55 percent (Serbianna). Milo Djukanovic, Montenegro's pro-independence prime minister, has said that he will move ahead toward secession even with just a simple majority. The possible outcomes of this scenario are analyzed in this new CFR Background Q&A.
Should the vote succeed, however, tiny Montenegro, often overlooked in a tumultuous neighborhood, could open a final phase in the crumbling of the former Yugoslavia. All that remains of the federation is a two-country union, officially named "Serbia and Montenegro," which encompasses Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian-dominated province that is also seeking national sovereignty. A number of experts now predict a Kosovar solution in the near future, though most do not believe Montenegro's elections will have much of an effect on that process. A December 2005 report by the International Crisis Group emphasizes that the results of Montenegro's referendum should have no bearing on Kosovo's campaign for independence. Serbs, at least, seem markedly pessimistic about their prospects of retaining control, particularly in Montenegro; in a recent survey by the Balkan news agency DTT-net, 56 percent say they believe Montenegro would gain independence.
The position of the European Union remains unclear. It was the EU, after all, that negotiated the 55 percent target for the referendum (EU Observer), when a simple majority would have almost guaranteed the vote's success. Some experts say the EU may have set the bar high because it didn't want to see the referendum pass (the rationale being that independence—or, at least, independence now—would create instability in the Balkans). But experts say it's more likely the EU set a high target to stave off the threat of boycott by Montenegro's large ethnic Serb minority. The United States, for its part, has remained more or less mum on the issue; this 2005 Special Report by CFR Senior Fellow William Nash argues for a more active approach.
Another question is whether an independent Montenegro would stand a better chance of admittance into the EU. Many Montenegrins consider themselves handcuffed to a country which has burned its European bridges (Deutsche Welle) by failing to arrest and hand over a number of war criminals, including Ratko Mladic. Separatists argue that independence would "dramatically increase" Montenegro's chances of admittance (RFE/RL). As this analysis from England's Daily Telegraph points out, the recent spat over Mladic has almost certainly strengthened the hand of Montenegro's pro-separation forces.
Montenegro was last independent in 1918 under King Nikola
http://www.cfr.org/publication/10716/montenegro_weighs_independence.html
They have a damned hard time remembering the former Yugoslavia countries (I tell them it's because they're being lazy and not studying hard enough)
To go from the slaughter that Bosnia went through to 4 boys from Dublin and Lemon setting up shop in the stadium that was turned into a grave yard during the war, in such a small space of time was incredible!
