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Old 06-16-2006, 12:32 PM   #61
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Super-cyclones

We get cyclones every year, there is no evidence that they are increasing in strength, now wouldn't a warmer world have less temperature variability and thus less atmospheric circulation?
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Old 06-16-2006, 12:34 PM   #62
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Super-cyclones


the Category 5 cyclones.

sorry -- that might have been lazy terminology as now memory serves and there's predictions of super-cyclones/hurricanes that by the end of the century there will be bigger than the largest Category 5's recorded.
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Old 06-16-2006, 12:42 PM   #63
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yes, yes, we're on the same page -- i was pointing out the deliberate inclusion of "theory" as many tack on to things like Evolution because most people don't understand what a scientific theory actually is and think that any noun modified by the word "theory" gives said word the same level of fallability as JFK assassination theories.

as a point of comparison, does anyone make a concerted effort to tack the word "theory" onto plate techtonics?
Suggesting that "theory" be eliminated from the description is the easiest way to get the uninformed to buy into the concept. That is why junk science may be a better descriptor here.

Using isolated pieces of data (a couple of bad storms, a picture of an area of Antarctica, etc.) all fills the emotional aspects of the theory, but would not be tolerated as science. The politics drives the level of scientific inquiry, and the environmental groups who benefit from these theories rely on the public's short memory to forget the past scares that never materialized.
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Old 06-16-2006, 12:53 PM   #64
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We are perpetually awaiting Malthusian catastrophe
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Old 06-16-2006, 12:54 PM   #65
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[B]Suggesting that "theory" be eliminated from the description is the easiest way to get the uninformed to buy into the concept. That is why junk science may be a better descriptor here.

i never suggested it be eliminated, i merely suggested that the useage of the word in front of some scientific theories and not others creates the suggestion that some theories are more acceptable than others.

after all, most of the ID/creationist movement is predicated upon the protestation that "it's just a theory!"

seems as if many dissention from Global Warming relies on the same blueprint.


[q]Using isolated pieces of data (a couple of bad storms, a picture of an area of Antarctica, etc.) all fills the emotional aspects of the theory, but would not be tolerated as science. The politics drives the level of scientific inquiry, and the environmental groups who benefit from these theories rely on the public's short memory to forget the past scares that never materialized. [/q]


yes, because that's all the data supporting man-made global warming is -- a picture and some really bad storms.
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Old 06-16-2006, 12:59 PM   #66
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yes, because that's all the data supporting man-made global warming is -- a picture and some really bad storms.
That is all the average citizen gets.
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Old 06-16-2006, 01:00 PM   #67
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seems as if many dissention from Global Warming relies on the same blueprint.
NO! none of the serious debate is like this, it is issues of how effective the climate modelling techniques are, the energy balance of the Earth, the degree of specific feedback mechanisms and the rates of change as a dynamic system shifts from one point of stability to a new one and how this may be recorded. Taking isolated events and using it for political gains is bogus, using Hurricane Katrina and blaming it on GWB because of global warming is bogus, taking the hot weather from one year to the next is bogus.

I want a world where people both understand something and question it because it is a theory!

And the picture of catastrophe from climate change is probably going to be just as much as a fizzer as the population bomb, we can always adapt.
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Old 06-16-2006, 01:02 PM   #68
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I want a world where people both understand something and question it because it is a theory!
The average American does not have time for that, and it would really slow down donations to environmental groups.
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Old 06-16-2006, 01:04 PM   #69
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Well let them give their money away to groups to stop global warming and let them watch those same groups obstruct nuclear power with obfuscating red-tape.
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Old 06-16-2006, 01:06 PM   #70
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The average American does not have time for that, and it would really slow down donations to environmental groups.


those environmental groups! rolling in cash! fat cats, all of them! university professors lighting their cigars with ignited $100 bills!

just so long as we never pause to consider our actions -- let's make sure we continue to give people an "out" so they feel no worries about filling up the gas tank and screaming about $3.23 a gallon.
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Old 06-16-2006, 01:07 PM   #71
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I want a world where people both understand something and question it because it is a theory!


and the point is -- there are two political "sides" to the global warming debate, and both use these techniques.

only it seems as if there is more evidence for one "side" than the other.
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Old 06-16-2006, 01:10 PM   #72
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and the point is -- there are two political "sides" to the global warming debate, and both use these techniques.

only it seems as if there is more evidence for one "side" than the other.
That's the point - your one side has more evidence argument is false. This goes to the point of this sidetrack argument - there needs to be an honest debate on global warming.
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Old 06-16-2006, 01:12 PM   #73
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Originally posted by Irvine511
those environmental groups! rolling in cash! fat cats, all of them! university professors lighting their cigars with ignited $100 bills!

just so long as we never pause to consider our actions -- let's make sure we continue to give people an "out" so they feel no worries about filling up the gas tank and screaming about $3.23 a gallon.
You may make light of the situation, but environmentalism is a multi-billion dollar industry.
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Old 06-16-2006, 01:18 PM   #74
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and the point is -- there are two political "sides" to the global warming debate, and both use these techniques.

only it seems as if there is more evidence for one "side" than the other.
This is falsifiability - if it is really a scientific theory then anthropogenic global warming has to have the ability to be proven wrong, a great service is done by looking at the pieces of the puzzle that don't fit, you can have a lot of evidence for a model but it may only be one piece that disproves it.
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Old 06-16-2006, 02:12 PM   #75
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This is falsifiability - if it is really a scientific theory then anthropogenic global warming has to have the ability to be proven wrong, a great service is done by looking at the pieces of the puzzle that don't fit, you can have a lot of evidence for a model but it may only be one piece that disproves it.



agreed -- however this paragraph does not in any way validate the following quote, as much as the oil and gas and car industries would like you to believe:

[q]That's the point - your one side has more evidence argument is false. [/q]



it's akin to "teach the controversy."
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