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MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 60
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
by Ilan Berman
ISRAEL WARNS NATO OF ROGUE THREATS
A high-level Israeli intelligence official has issued a stark warning to NATO leaders about the mounting threat posed by Iran. In a secret speech to high-ranking NATO officials, Ephraim Halevy, head of Israel's MOSSAD foreign intelligence service, cautioned that Tehran is moving ahead with development of a long-range ballistic missile that "could reach Europe and in the future, even North America." The Islamic Republic, according to Halevy, is also hard at work on "weapon-grade nuclear capabilities," a development that should be the "subject of constant attention" on the part of the Alliance.
He also stressed that Iran, which is a party to the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention, is nonetheless constructing a "dual purpose civilian infrastructure which could be converted very speedily into production capabilities of large quantities of VX [nerve agent]."
In his speech, detailed in the June 27th Ha'aretz, Halevy also stressed that Syria and Libya have taken sigificant strides in ballistic missile and WMD development. Damascus, he warned, has acquired and subsequently produced Scud B-, C- and D-class missiles from North Korea, and is developing a sizeable chemical weapons program - one which already includes Sarin gas and could soon include VX as well. As for Libya, Halevy told NATO officials in attendance, including Secretary General Lord George Robertson and Military Committee chair Admiral Guido Venturoni, that Tripoli is "developing long-range missiles with North Korean support" and is "striving to achieve nuclear capability."
PENTAGON PLANS HISTORIC MERGER...
The U.S. Department of Defense has aired plans to create a new organizational unit for U.S. missile defenses and offensive strategic forces. In an official press release on June 26th, the Pentagon revealed that the U.S. Strategic Command, in charge of American missiles and bombers, will be merged with the U.S. Space Command, which oversees warning satellites, in the near future. The adapted command, as yet unnamed, "will be responsible for both early warning of and defense against missile attack as well as long-range conventional attacks," according to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. The move tracks closely with President Bush's recently-revealed plans for preemptive military action against rogue states and terrorist groups seeking weapons of mass destruction.
...AS WHITE HOUSE SCORES CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY
The White House appears to have emerged victorious from its drawn-out and rancorous battle with Congress over missile defense funding, the Washington Post (June 27) reports. On June 26th, the Senate approved amendment legislation making an additional $814 million in defense funds available to the White House for either missile defense or counterterrorism. The legislation, which grants the President discretion to use the money for either NMD development or the war against terrorism, effectively restores funds previously cut by the Senate Armed Services Committee from the Bush administration's fiscal year 2003 NMD budget.
MOSCOW, BEIJING RESUME MISSILE DEFENSE MANUEVERING
In the wake of the Bush administration's abandonment of the ABM Treaty, Russia and China have renewed efforts to thwart at least one aspect of American missile defense plans. At the late June meeting of the United Nations Disarmament Conference in Geneva, Russian envoy Leonid Skotnikov officially proposed a ban on the stationing of weapons in space. In a statement to the Itar-TASS news agency on June 28th, the Russian Foreign Ministry made clear that the move was part of larger strategic coordination taking place between Moscow and Beijing. "When we were drawing up the main elements of a future agreement with China, we were taking into account the serious gaps in current international law relating to activity in space: a lack of a ban on deploying in space weapons other than those of mass destruction," the Foreign Ministry said. If passed, the proposal could thwart American plans for a space-based component to U.S. missile defense.
NEW DELHI MAKES NMD A PRIORITY
Amid an ongoing missile threat from neighboring Pakistan, Indian officials are moving decisively to limit their country's vulnerability to ballistic missile attack. In comments reported by the Press Trust of India (June 29), outgoing Defense Secretary Yogendra Narain outlined his government's plans for a "sharp and visible" acceleration of anti-missile efforts. Preparations appear to already be underway: the June 28th Times of India reports that New Delhi has just acquired Israel's "Green Pine" radar, which serves as an important component of the jointly-developed U.S.-Israeli Arrow Theater Missile Defense system currently being sought by India.
MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 65
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
TURKISH MISSILE SHIELD TAKES SHAPE
Amid growing preparations for a campaign against Iraq, the United States has initiated serious missile defense discussions with Turkey. The July 31st issue of Istanbul's Hurriyet newspaper reveals that a 15-member American defense delegation has arrived in Ankara for secret, closed-door consultations about the creation of a joint American-Turkish "Patriot shield." The project is designed to protect Turkey, a key American ally in the fight against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, from possible retaliatory missile strikes by Baghdad. The plan, which classifies Ankara as a "top-level ally," includes the outfitting of industrial zones, urban centers and strategic assets in Turkey with early warning technologies and anti-missile defenses like the U.S.-made Patriot interceptor.
A SHIFTING BALANCE OF POWER IN SOUTH ASIA
Despite official optimism, India's ballistic missile program is facing serious difficulties, writes Pravin Sawhney in the July 30th Pioneer. After a strong initial start in the 1980s, New Delhi's Integrated Guided Missiles Development Program, or IGMDP, is now suffering from several critical shortcomings, the paper reports. Among them is the unwieldiness of the "Prithvi" short-range missile, which still relies on liquid, rather than solid, propellant, and is incapable of penetrating hardened targets because of its low terminal velocity. New Delhi's "Agni" class of advanced rockets, meanwhile, is struggling with deficiencies in command and control, and has not yet been optimally integrated into the country's national security structure.
Pakistan, on the other hand, is well on its way to fielding one of the world 's most advanced ballistic missile systems. The Rawalpalindi Jang (August 1) reports that after months of development by Islamabad's National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM), the "Shaheen-3" medium-range misilse will soon be tested by the Pakistani armed forces. According to sources cited by the paper, once the 750-kilometer range rocket is operational, it will be capable of defeating prospective Indian missile defenses, such as the Arrow Theater Missile Defense system New Delhi is in the process of acquiring from Israel.
AND OMINOUS ADVANCES IN THE PACIFIC
Officials in Taipei are expressing new worries over China's expanding missile arsenal, CNN.com (July 23) reports. The biannual "2002 National Defense Report," recently released by the Taiwanese government, reports that Beijing's military spending is rising rapidly, and that the PRC's missiles - many of which are deployed in eastern Chinese provinces across from Taiwan - are increasing in number. "By 2005," the white paper warns, "the deployed missiles targeting Taiwan will increase to around 600."
Beijing is also making some significant - and worrying - strides in defense development. The August 4th South China Morning Post reports that the People 's Liberation Army (PLA) is planning to produce and launch two new classes of nuclear submarines, the "Type 094" and the "Type 093," over the next decade. The long-range subs will be equipped with a new ballistic misilse system capable of striking the U.S. from close to the Chinese coast. Currently, the PRC has only one long-range, ballistic missile-equipped nuclear submarine which must travel across the Pacific in order to come within striking distance of the United States.
ATHENS EXPANDS AIR DEFENSES
Greece has conducted the first successful test of its upgraded anti-missile systems, Middle East Newsline (July 29) reports. The test, carried out by the Hellenic Air Force on July 25th, involved the interception of a subsonic drone by an American PAC-2 unit on the Island of Crete. The successful intercept marks the first public demonstration of the air defense upgrades currently being undertaken by the Greek government. Greece, which recently acquired four units of the PAC-3 air defense system from the U.S.-based
Raytheon Corporation, has been leased three units of the PAC-2 until its PAC-3s become operational.
NORTH KOREA TARGETS TOKYO-WASHINGTON COOPERATION
In its annual report to the ASEAN Regional Forum, the North Korean government has blasted the emerging missile defense relationship between Japan and the United States. According to Pyongyang, U.S. efforts to erect a layered international system to protect against ballistic missile attack contributes to the "destruction of the global security structure" and a looming "arms race" in Asia. For its part, Japan's growing militarization, and its cooperation with the U.S., not only violates Tokyo's 'Peace Constitution' but constitutes a serious threat to regional peace, the Korea Times (August 1) reports the brief as saying.
MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 67
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
THE POLITICS OF ATTACKING IRAQ
As momentum for a campaign against Iraq builds in Washington, the Bush administration is taking steps to reassure allies in the Middle East. Recently, a delegation of top American defense officials traveled to Ankara to discuss the possibility of a joint "Patriot shield" to protect parts of Turkey from Iraqi missiles. Now, the White House appears to be getting set to bolster Israeli missile defenses. Though not a step formally requested by Jerusalem, the August 15th Ha'aretz reports that the U.S. is planning to provide Israel with units of the American PAC-3 system ahead of any military action against Baghdad. In addition to supplementing Israel's existing defenses, the PAC-3 deployment could also serve a significant political purpose, the paper reports; it would give the Bush administration a greater ability to restrain the Israeli government in the event of missile strikes from Iraq.
COOPERATION ALONG THE "AXIS"
Baghdad, meanwhile, could soon receive military assistance from an unexpected direction. Middle East Newsline (August 19) reports that Iran is examining a request for advanced arms made by its historic rival. The overture, aired recently in Tehran by Iraqi heir-apparent Qusay Hussein, is said to include inquiries about units of Iran's "Shihab-3" medium range missiles. While not expecting Tehran to actively collaborate with Baghdad, Western intelligence sources have dubbed Iran's consideration of the motion to be a "significant" indicator of warming ties between the two nations.
A SAUDI MISSILE THREAT?
A report by Israel's Yediot Ahronot daily has detailed Saudi Arabia's rapidly expanding missile capabilities. The expose, covered on August 12th by the Worldnetdaily website, reveals that Riyadh has acquired 120 long-range CSS-2 missiles from China over the past decade. The nuclear-capable rockets, the majority of which are based at a major missile complex in the southern Saudi oasis of El-Solayil, have a range of 3,500 kilometers and are capable of striking Israel, Turkey and parts of India.
MOSCOW TALKS MISSILES...
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has gone public with new revelations about the Kremlin's missile plans. Visiting a division of Russia's Strategic Missile Troops in the Chelyabinsk region recently, Ivanov revealed that Moscow views the country's arsenal of SS-18 "Satan" intercontinental ballistic missiles as the cornerstone of its future nuclear and missile force. The nuclear-capable ICBMs, which can overpower "the most modern anti-missile defense system," will remain in combat service until 2016 as part of Russia's revamped "nuclear missile shield," Interfax (August 16) reports Ivanov as saying. The news constitutes an abandonment of Moscow's commitments to the 1993 START II agreement, under which former Russian President Boris Yeltsin pledged to dismantle Russia's arsenal of SS-18s by 2007.
...EYES KUWAITI MARKETS
The Kremlin is also planning for an expanded - and lucrative - defense relationship with Kuwait, Itar-TASS (August 19) reports. According to defense industry sources cited by the news agency, Russia's state-owned Rosoboroneksport defense conglomerate is planning to earn between $100-200 million on the Kuwaiti arms market over the next several years. Of particular interest to the Kuwaiti military are Russian air and missile defense systems like the "Tor-1," which the Gulf state hopes will correct deficiencies in its short range air defenses.
TOKYO INCHES TOWARD WASHINGTON
Japan is poised to significantly expand its missile defense relationship with the United States, the Jiji Press Ticker Service (August 14) reports. According to defense officials in Tokyo, the Japanese Defense Agency is mulling the possibility of expanding cooperation with the Pentagon from ist current research phase to the active development of ballistic missile defenses. If approved, the decision, which is expected by the end of this year, would pave the way for the deployment of cooperative sea-based missile defenses based on Japan's fleet of Aegis destroyers by the year 2005.
Editor: Ilan Berman
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
by Ilan Berman
ISRAEL WARNS NATO OF ROGUE THREATS
A high-level Israeli intelligence official has issued a stark warning to NATO leaders about the mounting threat posed by Iran. In a secret speech to high-ranking NATO officials, Ephraim Halevy, head of Israel's MOSSAD foreign intelligence service, cautioned that Tehran is moving ahead with development of a long-range ballistic missile that "could reach Europe and in the future, even North America." The Islamic Republic, according to Halevy, is also hard at work on "weapon-grade nuclear capabilities," a development that should be the "subject of constant attention" on the part of the Alliance.
He also stressed that Iran, which is a party to the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention, is nonetheless constructing a "dual purpose civilian infrastructure which could be converted very speedily into production capabilities of large quantities of VX [nerve agent]."
In his speech, detailed in the June 27th Ha'aretz, Halevy also stressed that Syria and Libya have taken sigificant strides in ballistic missile and WMD development. Damascus, he warned, has acquired and subsequently produced Scud B-, C- and D-class missiles from North Korea, and is developing a sizeable chemical weapons program - one which already includes Sarin gas and could soon include VX as well. As for Libya, Halevy told NATO officials in attendance, including Secretary General Lord George Robertson and Military Committee chair Admiral Guido Venturoni, that Tripoli is "developing long-range missiles with North Korean support" and is "striving to achieve nuclear capability."
PENTAGON PLANS HISTORIC MERGER...
The U.S. Department of Defense has aired plans to create a new organizational unit for U.S. missile defenses and offensive strategic forces. In an official press release on June 26th, the Pentagon revealed that the U.S. Strategic Command, in charge of American missiles and bombers, will be merged with the U.S. Space Command, which oversees warning satellites, in the near future. The adapted command, as yet unnamed, "will be responsible for both early warning of and defense against missile attack as well as long-range conventional attacks," according to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. The move tracks closely with President Bush's recently-revealed plans for preemptive military action against rogue states and terrorist groups seeking weapons of mass destruction.
...AS WHITE HOUSE SCORES CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY
The White House appears to have emerged victorious from its drawn-out and rancorous battle with Congress over missile defense funding, the Washington Post (June 27) reports. On June 26th, the Senate approved amendment legislation making an additional $814 million in defense funds available to the White House for either missile defense or counterterrorism. The legislation, which grants the President discretion to use the money for either NMD development or the war against terrorism, effectively restores funds previously cut by the Senate Armed Services Committee from the Bush administration's fiscal year 2003 NMD budget.
MOSCOW, BEIJING RESUME MISSILE DEFENSE MANUEVERING
In the wake of the Bush administration's abandonment of the ABM Treaty, Russia and China have renewed efforts to thwart at least one aspect of American missile defense plans. At the late June meeting of the United Nations Disarmament Conference in Geneva, Russian envoy Leonid Skotnikov officially proposed a ban on the stationing of weapons in space. In a statement to the Itar-TASS news agency on June 28th, the Russian Foreign Ministry made clear that the move was part of larger strategic coordination taking place between Moscow and Beijing. "When we were drawing up the main elements of a future agreement with China, we were taking into account the serious gaps in current international law relating to activity in space: a lack of a ban on deploying in space weapons other than those of mass destruction," the Foreign Ministry said. If passed, the proposal could thwart American plans for a space-based component to U.S. missile defense.
NEW DELHI MAKES NMD A PRIORITY
Amid an ongoing missile threat from neighboring Pakistan, Indian officials are moving decisively to limit their country's vulnerability to ballistic missile attack. In comments reported by the Press Trust of India (June 29), outgoing Defense Secretary Yogendra Narain outlined his government's plans for a "sharp and visible" acceleration of anti-missile efforts. Preparations appear to already be underway: the June 28th Times of India reports that New Delhi has just acquired Israel's "Green Pine" radar, which serves as an important component of the jointly-developed U.S.-Israeli Arrow Theater Missile Defense system currently being sought by India.
MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 65
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
TURKISH MISSILE SHIELD TAKES SHAPE
Amid growing preparations for a campaign against Iraq, the United States has initiated serious missile defense discussions with Turkey. The July 31st issue of Istanbul's Hurriyet newspaper reveals that a 15-member American defense delegation has arrived in Ankara for secret, closed-door consultations about the creation of a joint American-Turkish "Patriot shield." The project is designed to protect Turkey, a key American ally in the fight against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, from possible retaliatory missile strikes by Baghdad. The plan, which classifies Ankara as a "top-level ally," includes the outfitting of industrial zones, urban centers and strategic assets in Turkey with early warning technologies and anti-missile defenses like the U.S.-made Patriot interceptor.
A SHIFTING BALANCE OF POWER IN SOUTH ASIA
Despite official optimism, India's ballistic missile program is facing serious difficulties, writes Pravin Sawhney in the July 30th Pioneer. After a strong initial start in the 1980s, New Delhi's Integrated Guided Missiles Development Program, or IGMDP, is now suffering from several critical shortcomings, the paper reports. Among them is the unwieldiness of the "Prithvi" short-range missile, which still relies on liquid, rather than solid, propellant, and is incapable of penetrating hardened targets because of its low terminal velocity. New Delhi's "Agni" class of advanced rockets, meanwhile, is struggling with deficiencies in command and control, and has not yet been optimally integrated into the country's national security structure.
Pakistan, on the other hand, is well on its way to fielding one of the world 's most advanced ballistic missile systems. The Rawalpalindi Jang (August 1) reports that after months of development by Islamabad's National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM), the "Shaheen-3" medium-range misilse will soon be tested by the Pakistani armed forces. According to sources cited by the paper, once the 750-kilometer range rocket is operational, it will be capable of defeating prospective Indian missile defenses, such as the Arrow Theater Missile Defense system New Delhi is in the process of acquiring from Israel.
AND OMINOUS ADVANCES IN THE PACIFIC
Officials in Taipei are expressing new worries over China's expanding missile arsenal, CNN.com (July 23) reports. The biannual "2002 National Defense Report," recently released by the Taiwanese government, reports that Beijing's military spending is rising rapidly, and that the PRC's missiles - many of which are deployed in eastern Chinese provinces across from Taiwan - are increasing in number. "By 2005," the white paper warns, "the deployed missiles targeting Taiwan will increase to around 600."
Beijing is also making some significant - and worrying - strides in defense development. The August 4th South China Morning Post reports that the People 's Liberation Army (PLA) is planning to produce and launch two new classes of nuclear submarines, the "Type 094" and the "Type 093," over the next decade. The long-range subs will be equipped with a new ballistic misilse system capable of striking the U.S. from close to the Chinese coast. Currently, the PRC has only one long-range, ballistic missile-equipped nuclear submarine which must travel across the Pacific in order to come within striking distance of the United States.
ATHENS EXPANDS AIR DEFENSES
Greece has conducted the first successful test of its upgraded anti-missile systems, Middle East Newsline (July 29) reports. The test, carried out by the Hellenic Air Force on July 25th, involved the interception of a subsonic drone by an American PAC-2 unit on the Island of Crete. The successful intercept marks the first public demonstration of the air defense upgrades currently being undertaken by the Greek government. Greece, which recently acquired four units of the PAC-3 air defense system from the U.S.-based
Raytheon Corporation, has been leased three units of the PAC-2 until its PAC-3s become operational.
NORTH KOREA TARGETS TOKYO-WASHINGTON COOPERATION
In its annual report to the ASEAN Regional Forum, the North Korean government has blasted the emerging missile defense relationship between Japan and the United States. According to Pyongyang, U.S. efforts to erect a layered international system to protect against ballistic missile attack contributes to the "destruction of the global security structure" and a looming "arms race" in Asia. For its part, Japan's growing militarization, and its cooperation with the U.S., not only violates Tokyo's 'Peace Constitution' but constitutes a serious threat to regional peace, the Korea Times (August 1) reports the brief as saying.
MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT NO. 67
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
THE POLITICS OF ATTACKING IRAQ
As momentum for a campaign against Iraq builds in Washington, the Bush administration is taking steps to reassure allies in the Middle East. Recently, a delegation of top American defense officials traveled to Ankara to discuss the possibility of a joint "Patriot shield" to protect parts of Turkey from Iraqi missiles. Now, the White House appears to be getting set to bolster Israeli missile defenses. Though not a step formally requested by Jerusalem, the August 15th Ha'aretz reports that the U.S. is planning to provide Israel with units of the American PAC-3 system ahead of any military action against Baghdad. In addition to supplementing Israel's existing defenses, the PAC-3 deployment could also serve a significant political purpose, the paper reports; it would give the Bush administration a greater ability to restrain the Israeli government in the event of missile strikes from Iraq.
COOPERATION ALONG THE "AXIS"
Baghdad, meanwhile, could soon receive military assistance from an unexpected direction. Middle East Newsline (August 19) reports that Iran is examining a request for advanced arms made by its historic rival. The overture, aired recently in Tehran by Iraqi heir-apparent Qusay Hussein, is said to include inquiries about units of Iran's "Shihab-3" medium range missiles. While not expecting Tehran to actively collaborate with Baghdad, Western intelligence sources have dubbed Iran's consideration of the motion to be a "significant" indicator of warming ties between the two nations.
A SAUDI MISSILE THREAT?
A report by Israel's Yediot Ahronot daily has detailed Saudi Arabia's rapidly expanding missile capabilities. The expose, covered on August 12th by the Worldnetdaily website, reveals that Riyadh has acquired 120 long-range CSS-2 missiles from China over the past decade. The nuclear-capable rockets, the majority of which are based at a major missile complex in the southern Saudi oasis of El-Solayil, have a range of 3,500 kilometers and are capable of striking Israel, Turkey and parts of India.
MOSCOW TALKS MISSILES...
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has gone public with new revelations about the Kremlin's missile plans. Visiting a division of Russia's Strategic Missile Troops in the Chelyabinsk region recently, Ivanov revealed that Moscow views the country's arsenal of SS-18 "Satan" intercontinental ballistic missiles as the cornerstone of its future nuclear and missile force. The nuclear-capable ICBMs, which can overpower "the most modern anti-missile defense system," will remain in combat service until 2016 as part of Russia's revamped "nuclear missile shield," Interfax (August 16) reports Ivanov as saying. The news constitutes an abandonment of Moscow's commitments to the 1993 START II agreement, under which former Russian President Boris Yeltsin pledged to dismantle Russia's arsenal of SS-18s by 2007.
...EYES KUWAITI MARKETS
The Kremlin is also planning for an expanded - and lucrative - defense relationship with Kuwait, Itar-TASS (August 19) reports. According to defense industry sources cited by the news agency, Russia's state-owned Rosoboroneksport defense conglomerate is planning to earn between $100-200 million on the Kuwaiti arms market over the next several years. Of particular interest to the Kuwaiti military are Russian air and missile defense systems like the "Tor-1," which the Gulf state hopes will correct deficiencies in its short range air defenses.
TOKYO INCHES TOWARD WASHINGTON
Japan is poised to significantly expand its missile defense relationship with the United States, the Jiji Press Ticker Service (August 14) reports. According to defense officials in Tokyo, the Japanese Defense Agency is mulling the possibility of expanding cooperation with the Pentagon from ist current research phase to the active development of ballistic missile defenses. If approved, the decision, which is expected by the end of this year, would pave the way for the deployment of cooperative sea-based missile defenses based on Japan's fleet of Aegis destroyers by the year 2005.
Editor: Ilan Berman