Michigan Primary predictions

[maycocksean]

Can someone explain to me why Iowa and New Hampshire have so much power in every Presidential election. Shouldn't all 50 states have equal power? Why can't we strip down this whole complicated delegates and electoral system and make it a simple popular vote system? One popular vote for all the Republicans for the whole country to choose the Republican candidate. One for the Democrats and then one for the general election. I think that would be much more fair.

Isn't that power more given to them by the media's hyping of the Iowa and New Hampshire decisions? It's not tthe fault of the states that the media (and in turn many voters) tend to quickly annoint the winners in these states as the "inevitable" nominees. After all, I would assume that both states have been first in the primary/caucus elections for a long time though up until only recently (I would argue with the vast increase and influence of television etc) the decision wasn't usually made until the party convention. These day's the convention is basically a "rubber-stamp" event but it hasn't been that way for most of the country's history.

 

[melon]

Isn't that power more given to them by the media's hyping of the Iowa and New Hampshire decisions?

I'm not sure, considering the deluge of Obama supporters here after his first win in Iowa. People like "a winner."

 

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

Huzzah for having the highest unemployment rate (and climbing), the worst state economy, and the worst housing market!

Yeah!

 

[Strongbow]

3 new polls, all post New Hampshire Primary are up for the Republican primary in Michigan:



Rasmussen 01/09 - 01/09

Romney 26%
McCain 25%
Huckabee 17%
Thompson 9%
Paul 8%
Giuliani 6%



Mitchell Research 01/09 - 01/10

McCain 23%
Romney 17%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%
Thompson 2%





American Res. Group 01/09 - 01/11

McCain 34%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 9%
Giuliani 5%
Thompson 4%




The Rasmussen poll suggest that the McCain victory in New Hampshire did not provide the overwhelming bump that many have thought it did. I think any sort of bounce is largest right after such an event, so by Tuesday Romney might be able to make some ground back. But this is just one poll, but it does suggest that McCain still has a challenge here.

 

[Strongbow]

Unfortunately, it appears McCain's lead in Michigan might be gone. There have even been a couple of polls now showing Romney with a 5 point or 8 point lead, although many of these polls do not make it clear if they are just based on registered Republicans or not. Independents and Democrats can vote in the Republican primary. Some reports suggest that only 1 in 6 voters will not be registered Republicans.

If Romney were to actually win Michigan, one wonders how this would impact South Carolina. Who would Romney gain more votes from, Huckabee, McCain or Thompson?

 

[diamond]

Unfortunately, it appears McCain's lead in Michigan might be gone.

Why is this unfortunate?

dbs

 

[Strongbow]

Why is this unfortunate?

dbs

Because McCain is by far the best candidate for president, Republican or Democrat, but in order to maintain the new momentum from the New Hampshire victory, he has to continue to win. Michigan and South Carolina are vital to winning for many reasons.

Looking down the road, the Republicans are going to have a difficult time winning in November, and McCain is really the only Republican candidate that can win, with the possible exception of Guiliani. Mitt Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson would be crushed by the Dems in November. The experience and facts about each of the candidates in addition to the polling that has been done show this.

If Republicans want to win in November, they need to vote for McCain.

 

[Utoo]

McCain's a douche. For a guy who has based his entire career on an image of staying true to what he believes, the man spent all of 2003-2004 criticizing Bush for his handling of the war, then goes up at the GOP Convention and talks about Bush as if he's the greatest gift to mankind. Why? Posturing for his '08 run. So much for standing up for what you believe in the face of politics.

 

[2861U2]

If Republicans want to win in November, they need to vote for McCain.

Amen.

 

[Strongbow]

McCain's a douche. For a guy who has based his entire career on an image of staying true to what he believes, the man spent all of 2003-2004 criticizing Bush for his handling of the war, then goes up at the GOP Convention and talks about Bush as if he's the greatest gift to mankind. Why? Posturing for his '08 run. So much for standing up for what you believe in the face of politics.

Despite Bush's handling of the war, McCain was right to support Bush against John Kerry in the 2004 election. You can criticize members of your own party and still vote for them, especially when you see how much better than are than the alternative. McCain has never waivered in his main ideas and beliefs. The only douche's are those who continue to be grossly ignorant about what McCain has done for the United States and the world over the past 50 years.

 

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

Yay for going out in the snow and voting Uncommitted.

 

[2861U2]

It's going to be close. It looks like Romney's got a bit of a lead, but the independents might change that.

ETA: Actually, I just looked at the weather in Michigan, and I can't imagine many independent voters going out in this weather to vote for someone they aren't 100% behind.

 

[Liesje]

That snow? That's nothing, lol. I think we will vote yet tonight. We moved so I don't know where we vote now, I will have to find my new registration card.

 

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

A little bit of bad weather never hurt anyone. Especially if you live in MI.

I just hope that this discourages the older population to come out to vote. :crossesfingers:

 

[Pearl]

I really don't want to see John McCain win. Anyone but him. He comes across as very arrogant to me. Plus, he's a boring speaker.

 

[No spoken words]

Plus, he's a boring speaker.

I was born in the wrong century.

 

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

I really don't want to see John McCain win. Anyone but him. He comes across as very arrogant to me. Plus, he's a boring speaker.

You forgot old as the freaking hills.

 

[deep]

I really don't want to see John McCain win.

Neither does the Republican Establishment
they hate him - and I think would rather have a Dem in the Whitehouse

They feel the same way about Huckabee

The GOP establishment - big money, is going for Rudy or Mitt

that is right, they would rather have Mitt than McCain.

 

[2861U2]

Neither does the Republican Establishment
they hate him - and I think would rather have a Dem in the Whitehouse

They feel about the same way about Huck

The GOP establishment - big money is going for Rudy or Mitt

that is right, they would rather have Mitt than McCain.

I'd say you're right, and that drives me insane. I am absolute convinced that unless we nominate McCain, we're going down in November. The base may like Mitt or Fred or whoever else they see as being more conservative than McCain, and that's fine, but they won't win, especially against Obama. Everyday on Rush I hear callers- lifelong Republicans- who say they won't vote for McCain if he's the nominee.

Are we trying to lose?

 

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

Goooooooo Mitt!

 

[oceane]

What do you guys think of this?

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/872

 

[nathan1977]

What do you guys think of this?

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/872

The link says, "Sorry, I can't seem to find that story."

 

[phillyfan26]

The link says, "Sorry, I can't seem to find that story."

Yeah, but what do you think about it? That was the question.

I think it's a damn shame. But I have faith. He'll find that story. He's dedicated. Just believe.

 

[Strongbow]

You forgot old as the freaking hills.

Age is a number. John McCain is younger than many people half his age. The same could be said of his Mother who indeed has more energy than half of the nominees running.

 

[oceane]

Sorry, that should work better, there was a number missing at the end

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/87225

It's about Democrats being encouraged to vote for Romney in Michigan. In a way I think it's a wicked idea, but at the same time could be risky...

(I want the Dems to win the election, in case that wasn't clear)

 

[deep]

The link says, "Sorry, I can't seem to find that story."

Most likely the lead story on Kos

Obama is scary.

http://www.dailykos.com/

 

[Strongbow]

It appears that McCain may have dropped well behind Romney in the polls as the Mitchell Research has Romney on top by 6 points now. But I guess it was to be expected when your able to outspend your oponent by more than 10 to 1. The Weather is another factor that could keep independents and democrats at home. If McCain is unable to beat Romney here, the race becomes a lot more muddled. A McCain victory here would set him up for a win in South Carolina on Saturday which would essentially set him up to win the nomination.

Either way, it will be interesting to see how this race impacts South Carolina where a new poll by Rasmussen has McCain out on top by 9 points!

 

[Diemen]

Keep in mind though that the polls had Obama ahead by double digits in NH, so I don't know how much stock we can put in the poll numbers anymore.

 

[Strongbow]

Well, Mitchell Research has predicted the Michigan primary accurately since 1992 so they do have a good track record. But hopefully this time they will get it wrong.

 

[Infinity]

Neither does the Republican Establishment
they hate him - and I think would rather have a Dem in the Whitehouse

They feel the same way about Huckabee

The GOP establishment - big money, is going for Rudy or Mitt

that is right, they would rather have Mitt than McCain.

Why are they going for Rudy? Isn't he even not considered conservative enough?