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Old 11-01-2004, 01:54 PM   #76
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Here is a polling analysis of the states that will make the difference.....

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/state-graphs.html
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Old 11-01-2004, 01:59 PM   #77
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The reason why the Midwest is important is that Bush needs to win there if he loses either Ohio or Florida. If Kerry locks up the Midwest, then Bush has to win both Ohio and Florida. I don't think Pennsylvania will go to Bush. If that happens, it would be a shock and Kerry would definitely lose.
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Old 11-01-2004, 02:00 PM   #78
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Quote:
Originally posted by diamond


dave c,
im quoting you on this.
these quotes will go down in infamy or u may become a rising star thanks to me quoting you

db9
Go ahead. I'll even state it better for you:

"Bush has already lost Ohio & Pennsylvania. The polling numbers in New Mexico lead me to believe that he has already lost there, and Hawaii has had 1 poll ever in favor of Bush that was a statistical tie anyways. Bush will lose all 4 of these states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Hawaii) and Kerry will be the winner of the election and the Presidency."
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Old 11-01-2004, 02:13 PM   #79
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But Dave C
youre so eloquent and such a skilled orator

db9
ps-
will kerry win the recount though?
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Old 11-01-2004, 02:23 PM   #80
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what's GW sweating about?
according to Dave c the election is over.

db9
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Old 11-01-2004, 03:12 PM   #81
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Please spare us any fg recounts.
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Old 11-01-2004, 03:27 PM   #82
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Old 11-01-2004, 03:27 PM   #83
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I think Kerry could pull this off. Bush is the incumbent, he should be more than 1 point ahead in polls. At this time in 2000, he was averaging a 4-point lead in polls and we know what happened after that. Plus, he is now an incumbent as opposed to being the challenger four years ago. The incumbent rule definitely applies with an election this close -- if you can't poll above 50% as an incumbent, it's going to be very hard to win.

Maybe I've been brainwashed but all signs point to a Kerry victory. Either way, I'll be drinking beer tomorrow.
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Old 11-01-2004, 03:39 PM   #84
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Quote:
Originally posted by verte76
I'll buy that--a 75% chance that Bush gets in, a 25% chance that Kerry gets in. Last night my dad, who, unlike me, is still watching the TV news, told me that just about every poll had Bush ahead, in all the big states, but the pollsters on the Internet are claiming it's too close to call. In fact, so did the Investor's Business Daily edition for today.
Verte

The gallup poll tends to poll more Republicans in the first place, so it's tilted right in the basic sampling.

Zogby says alot of his numbers are showing kerry ahead, and still showing momentum Kerry's way.

There are a lot of first time voters that wouldn't be counted by the pollsters. They also say alot of the younger voters don't have landlines, and pollsters don' t have their cell or wireless phone numbers.

Others callers to AirAmerica from around the country are saying local people are saying how staggering the numbers of early voters have been already.

Zogby said the last election was around 105 mil. His predicting around 110 - 115 mil which would be the most since Kennedy/Nixon '60.
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Old 11-01-2004, 03:48 PM   #85
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The polls are useless right now, they can be useful at showing general trends within the electorate but when it comes to picking a winner - go with the betting odds.
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Old 11-01-2004, 03:51 PM   #86
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State Poll Averages

• Florida: Bush + 0.8
• Ohio: Bush + 1.8
• Pennsylvania: Kerry +1.0
• Wisconsin: Bush + 0.7
• Iowa: Bush + 0.5
• Minnesota: Kerry +2.5
• Michigan: Kerry +3.7
• New Mexico: Bush + 2.0
• Nevada: Bush + 4.0
• New Hampshire: Kerry +1.3

A_Wanderer-
I kinda like these trends

db9
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Old 11-01-2004, 03:54 PM   #87
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I prefer to see the real results myself, if we believed most of the polls PM Mark Latham would be at the helm.
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Old 11-01-2004, 03:56 PM   #88
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If Kerry loses, his campaign will have to look at whether they did everything they could to get the vote out.

If Bush loses, he has only his administration to blame.

There are two kinds of people voting for Kerry: the ones who love Kerry and the ones who hate Bush. GWB could not do anything to sway the vote of the former, but it is his administrations constant arrogance, unwillingness to admit a single mistake, complete lack of humility, and a divisiveness not seen since Vietnam that drove those many, many hundreds of thousands to vote for Kerry.
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Old 11-01-2004, 04:19 PM   #89
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Funny how some see only one side to divisiveness....
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Old 11-01-2004, 04:20 PM   #90
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Quote:
Originally posted by dazzledbylight


Verte

The gallup poll tends to poll more Republicans in the first place, so it's tilted right in the basic sampling.

Zogby says alot of his numbers are showing kerry ahead, and still showing momentum Kerry's way.

I know, there's alot of controversy over Gallup's partisan sampling. I don't know why they use those numbers. They're not polling first-time voters and there is evidence that a majority of these are Democratic voters.
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