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Old 10-31-2004, 03:36 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally posted by diamond

The poll, taken over a four-day period, found the recent video tape from Osama bin Laden had no clear impact on voter preferences. Interviews conducted after the tape was released on Oct. 29 generally resembled the polling conducted on the two previous days.
"Impact detected," indeed. Bit of a misleading title.
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Old 10-31-2004, 03:37 PM   #47
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In regards to the article posted by diamond, I'd hate to see fear tactics win this election.
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Old 10-31-2004, 03:38 PM   #48
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i am surprised that god didn't strike him down for that one.
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Old 10-31-2004, 03:42 PM   #49
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Since I just merged another thread, just a reminder...

If you're looking for an election-related thread you posted (although why did you post it anywhere but here? ), and you can't find it, look in this thread. It was probably just merged.

Thanks!
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Old 10-31-2004, 03:43 PM   #50
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Old news item, but it talks about how Bush allowed bin Laden to get away at Tora Bora.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp...nguage=printer

The Bush administration has concluded that Osama bin Laden was present during the battle for Tora Bora late last year and that failure to commit U.S. ground troops to hunt him was its gravest error in the war against al Qaeda, according to civilian and military officials with first-hand knowledge.

Intelligence officials have assembled what they believe to be decisive evidence, from contemporary and subsequent interrogations and intercepted communications, that bin Laden began the battle of Tora Bora inside the cave complex along Afghanistan's mountainous eastern border. Though there remains a remote chance that he died there, the intelligence community is persuaded that bin Laden slipped away in the first 10 days of December.

(click link at top to read more)
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Old 10-31-2004, 04:12 PM   #51
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wink

Quote:
Originally posted by paxetaurora


"Impact detected," indeed. Bit of a misleading title.
don't look now but for good news-


Bush Leads, Uncertainty Reigns

NEW YORK, Oct. 31, 2004



(Photo: AP)



" … actual undecideds right now are slightly breaking towards us."
Matthew Dowd, Bush-Cheney pollster


The latest from CBS News reporters and analysts on the 2004 campaign:

What Could Go Wrong: Part II
By Jarrett Murphy

Who Will 'Osama Surprise' Help?
By David Paul Kuhn

Divided We Stand
By Dick Meyer

Jump Ball
By Dotty Lynch

Confessions of a Moderator
By Bob Schieffer


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More campaign news:

Washington Wrap

Trail Bytes

CBS News Polls


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interactives:

Campaign 2004

The Debates

Electoral Vote Map

The Democrats

The Republicans








(CBS) By Jarrett Murphy, CBSNews.com producer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In a CBS News/New York Times poll out Sunday, President Bush has the support of 49 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for John Kerry.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters think Mr. Bush will win, to 33 percent who bet on Kerry. More voters see the president as strong, a man in tune with their priorities, someone who says what he thinks. Fifty-five percent approve of the president's handling of the war on terrorism.

So the poll seems to be pretty bad news for Kerry, and good news for Mr. Bush.

Is it?

Matthew Dowd, the president's chief pollster, in an e-mail response to CBSNews.com, says the Bush-Cheney campaign's internal polls also indicate the president is up by three points, "and that is what we think it will end up on Election Day."

Since the beginning of September, according to a log of polls maintained by RealClearPolitics, 58 polls have given Mr. Bush a lead and 14 have been a tie. Kerry has led in only five.

Kerry supporters see chinks in the president's armor, however.

In the CBS/NYT survey, Mr. Bush's lead is within the four-point margin of error for likely voters. The same is true of recent Pew, ABC and Newsweek surveys. The Washington Post, FOX News, Reuters/Zogby and American Research Group polls all show a numerical tie.

While Kerry slipped slightly in the most recent Reuters poll, it was Mr. Bush who dropped a point in the Washington Post survey. The Fox poll saw Kerry making inroads among independents and getting more enthusiasm from Democrats.

Potentially more important, Mr. Bush is not breaking the 50 percent mark in many recent surveys — falling short of a benchmark some analysts feel is key for an incumbent president. In the CBS/NYT poll, the president's approval rating, like his poll number, is 49 percent.

"The fact that the president is not at fifty percent I think is a sign of real problems for him," said Kerry's chief pollster, Mark Mellman. He sees undecided voters favoring Kerry.

Frank Newport of the Gallup Poll has described Mr. Bush as being in a "gray zone." Since Harry Truman, the three incumbents who have lost all had approval ratings well below 50 percent. The incumbents who won had approval numbers well above 50 percent. Mr. Bush is at dead center.

The Bush campaign disagrees on the significance of the 50 percent mark.

"Since undecideds are likely to worse-case split their ballots, then being at fifty doesn't bother us at all," Dowd said. "And actual undecideds right now are slightly breaking towards us."

Newsweek and Pew do have Mr. Bush at or above 50.

Newport said historically the challenger gets more of the undecideds but he had no estimate of how they will split this year.

Most recent polls count likely voters, not registered ones. Given the surge in registration, determining who is likely to vote can be tricky. Mellman dubs likely voter models "questionable at best."

If more new voters come out than the pollsters project, that could aid Kerry. The Fox poll gives Kerry a 47-45 percent lead among registered voters. Reuters/Zogby estimates Kerry has a 51-41 percent edge among newly registered voters.

"We have looked at it different ways and we may even present an alternative model that discounts voting history," Newport said in an interview Sunday as his organization wrapped up its final poll of the 2004
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Old 10-31-2004, 04:18 PM   #52
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Retired General Tommy Franks who was actually involved in planning Afghanistan has a different perspective than Kerry today (because Kerry thought the SF with indigenous foces was a good idea at the time).
Quote:
On more than one occasion, Senator Kerry has referred to the fight at Tora Bora in Afghanistan during late 2001 as a missed opportunity for America. He claims that our forces had Osama bin Laden cornered and allowed him to escape. How did it happen? According to Mr. Kerry, we “outsourced” the job to Afghan warlords. As commander of the allied forces in the Middle East, I was responsible for the operation at Tora Bora, and I can tell you that the senator’s understanding of events doesn’t square with reality.

First, take Mr. Kerry’s contention that we “had an opportunity to capture or kill Osama bin Laden” and that “we had him surrounded.” We don’t know to this day whether Mr. bin Laden was at Tora Bora in December 2001. Some intelligence sources said he was; others indicated he was in Pakistan at the time; still others suggested he was in Kashmir. Tora Bora was teeming with Taliban and Qaeda operatives, many of whom were killed or captured, but Mr. bin Laden was never within our grasp.

Second, we did not “outsource” military action. We did rely heavily on Afghans because they knew Tora Bora, a mountainous, geographically difficult region on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is where Afghan mujahedeen holed up for years, keeping alive their resistance to the Soviet Union. Killing and capturing Taliban and Qaeda fighters was best done by the Afghan fighters who already knew the caves and tunnels.

Third, the Afghans weren’t left to do the job alone. Special forces from the United States and several other countries were there, providing tactical leadership and calling in air strikes. Pakistani troops also provided significant help - as many as 100,000 sealed the border and rounded up hundreds of Qaeda and Taliban fighters.

Contrary to Senator Kerry, President Bush never “took his eye off the ball” when it came to Osama bin Laden. The war on terrorism has a global focus. It cannot be divided into separate and unrelated wars, one in Afghanistan and another in Iraq. Both are part of the same effort to capture and kill terrorists before they are able to strike America again, potentially with weapons of mass destruction. Terrorist cells are operating in some 60 countries, and the United States, in coordination with dozens of allies, is waging this war on many fronts.
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Old 10-31-2004, 04:43 PM   #53
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Kerry, the retroactive genius!
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Old 10-31-2004, 06:12 PM   #54
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Zogby's cell-phone user poll and newly-registered voter poll are very good numbers for John Kerry.
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Old 10-31-2004, 07:27 PM   #55
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EV.com still has Kerry ahead. By a thin margin, but ahead.

Plus, as Gibson mentioned, Zogby's numbers are looking very good.

::crossing fingers::
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Old 10-31-2004, 07:28 PM   #56
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why bush doesn't care about you.....

not sure i can get to a web place again before the voting's over so I'll throw my 2 cents in now....

'No child left behind" s an

he goes to a hospital and extolls their special effort in certsain areas, then several weeks later funding for those programs are cut.unfunded mandate .

That means now the federal law says you must do such & such related to children's education. But the Federal Gov doesn't fund it or severly u n\nderfunds it, thus forcing the states to draw from other state monmies to pay for the mandate.

What's most like to get the axe or less dollars ...money for working class and poorer people's programs related to health, job training etc.

Last year Bush went to a plant/company that he extolls for the kind of higher wage/ higher skilled jobs his policies were producing, the same place this year they are either having massiver layoffs or totaly shutting it down and "outsourcing" the same jobs.

Some time in the summer I heard a report ...either for Iowa or Illinois {I was standing on the sidewalk waiting for a bus with my walkman on} they had sooo littile funding left for education, road repairs etc they realizedthey had to raise taxes after all!

**************************************

REMEMBER: taxes are what you pay for a deccent, civilized society....Health care fot the poorer, elderly & disabled. ROad, tunnel & bridge maintanance & repair, public education....Streetlights..etc etc... DO you really want all thses services done by private companies...like Enron who deliberately ran up stuff as to cause a fake energy crisis in Calfornia. Or halliburton which has charged absurd rates for much of what they are charging in Iraq. The soldier who see they are getting paid 10 timess LESS than what a Hallib employee is getting?

*********************************

The usa is not just a bunch of rugged individualists, we've also claim ourselves to be a community.. How good a community are we when we don't take care of those in need.

There are too many corporations that now treat their Employees like numbers in the liability column of thier accountants, instead of the valued workers they should be treated as.

All of you Christians {I'm a former one who still seriosly takes Master Christ's message } "DO for the less of these...".? by Bush slashing many programs for those in need but the absurb monies he keeps coming back for in Iraq? Trying like Newt Gingrich did to make "medicare wither on the vine" { a real NG quote}? SDOme Christian.

THereare Bush supporters who still believe that Bush supports environmental treaties that HE DOESN'T.

+++++++++++++++++

finally Bush goes around saying how much he supports pour men & women in Uniform....

BY what undersupppling body armour so that families had to go out and buy it. Continuing to cut Veteran's benifits, and general funding to VA hospitals. SOme have closed under Bush's administration.

And as a NEQ yorker who had three near-miosses within our circle of family/friend during 9-11.... [U] I don;t feel any safer under bushm who took away or has continued to underfund first responders here in NYC {still big target} and other things like port inspection etc.
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Old 10-31-2004, 07:35 PM   #57
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From the Economist on the election:

The incompetent or the incoherent?


interesting. I enjoy the title of the article the most, actually.
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Old 11-01-2004, 05:11 AM   #58
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It was right there on my ISP's home page that NBC's poll has the race in a dead heat. I just keep thinking "Lord, get me to that monastery on Thursday" (I'm going to D.C. the day after the election for some business and a pilgrimage).
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Old 11-01-2004, 05:33 AM   #59
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Last campaign day polls:

Gallup: Kerry 49% - Bush 49%
Zogby: Bush 48% - Kerry 47%
Marist U: Kerry 49% - Bush 48%

More polls as they are released coming soon....Looks like we're headed into tomorrow with a dead heat.
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Old 11-01-2004, 05:48 AM   #60
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this just in:
http://electionprojection.com/elections2004.html




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