MERGED: The Last 72 Hours: ALL U.S. Election-Related Posting (COMMENTARY/CHITCHAT OK)

[Tizer]

I can't see anyway that Bush won't be voted in. That's my call. I'm English though, so I can't do anything about it.

 

[A_Wanderer]

Well I think that, from the polling and the trends in past elections, that it is 75% probability that Bush gets in again with a 95% propability of the Democrats saying that the election was "stolen", a 95% CI of 1,1 that Michael Moore with act like an wanker regardless of the result.

Oh and Tizer, you could "write a letter to a swing state voter", I almost spilt my Ouzo when I heard that The Guardian was trying that

 

[verte76]

I'll buy that--a 75% chance that Bush gets in, a 25% chance that Kerry gets in. Last night my dad, who, unlike me, is still watching the TV news, told me that just about every poll had Bush ahead, in all the big states, but the pollsters on the Internet are claiming it's too close to call. In fact, so did the Investor's Business Daily edition for today.

 

[A_Wanderer]

At least Kerry isn't touting Fuzzy Math to show his inevitable victory, we all know what happened last time.

 

[verte76]

It would be stupid for either guy to claim "inevitable victory" with the polls showing it this close. You notice that they are not although they're putting out "optimist spin".

 

[diamond]

All Im going say is this.
One blogger who is Conservative has this projected 24 hrs before-
Bush 286, Kerry 252 -Electoral College.

Another Liberal has this projected-
Kerry-298
Bush-234

We will soon know in about 36 hours who is the most accurate and most reliable source.
I say let the chips fall where they may.

db9

 

[GibsonExplorer]

Zogby battleground polls has the midwest states (except Ohio-correction) breaking for Kerry today. Amazing...

These states (MN, WI, IA, MI) add up to 44 electoral votes.

 

[diamond]

so..if Bush gets Ohio and Florida?
who wins?

db9

 

[GibsonExplorer]

Bush must win both Ohio and Florida, but if Kerry wins one of the two, he will be president.

 

[diamond]

i see

 

[verte76]

There is a belief that whoever takes two out of the three states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will win. Geez, I'm going to check Zogby's site, the news from there is sounding good.

 

[DaveC]

Predictions:

Bush wins: AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, NE, NV, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY

Kerry wins: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NH, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA

EV's
Bush: 264
Kerry: 274

Winner: President-Elect Kerry

 

[diamond]

Predictions:

Bush wins: AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, NE, NV, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY

Kerry wins: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NH, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA

EV's
Bush: 264
Kerry: 274

Winner: President-Elect Kerry

i do not see bush losing the ohio and new mexico.
hawaii bush may swipe
db9

 

[DaveC]

i do not see bush losing the ohio and new mexico.
hawaii bush may swipe
db9

Bush has already lost Ohio.

New Mexico might go to Bush, but it's VERY unlikely considering the polling numbers. Hawaii will definitely be a Kerry win.

 

[diamond]

Bush has already lost Ohio.

New Mexico might go to Bush, but it's VERY unlikely considering the polling numbers. Hawaii will definitely be a Kerry win.

dave c,
im quoting you on this.
these quotes will go down in infamy or u may become a rising star thanks to me quoting you

db9

 

[Dreadsox]

Here is a polling analysis of the states that will make the difference.....

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/state-graphs.html

 

[GibsonExplorer]

The reason why the Midwest is important is that Bush needs to win there if he loses either Ohio or Florida. If Kerry locks up the Midwest, then Bush has to win both Ohio and Florida. I don't think Pennsylvania will go to Bush. If that happens, it would be a shock and Kerry would definitely lose.

 

[DaveC]

dave c,
im quoting you on this.
these quotes will go down in infamy or u may become a rising star thanks to me quoting you

db9

Go ahead. I'll even state it better for you:

"Bush has already lost Ohio & Pennsylvania. The polling numbers in New Mexico lead me to believe that he has already lost there, and Hawaii has had 1 poll ever in favor of Bush that was a statistical tie anyways. Bush will lose all 4 of these states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Hawaii) and Kerry will be the winner of the election and the Presidency."

 

[diamond]

But Dave C
youre so eloquent and such a skilled orator

db9
ps-
will kerry win the recount though?

 

[diamond]

what's GW sweating about?
according to Dave c the election is over.

db9

 

[verte76]

Please spare us any fg recounts.

 

[diamond]

 

[sharky]

I think Kerry could pull this off. Bush is the incumbent, he should be more than 1 point ahead in polls. At this time in 2000, he was averaging a 4-point lead in polls and we know what happened after that. Plus, he is now an incumbent as opposed to being the challenger four years ago. The incumbent rule definitely applies with an election this close -- if you can't poll above 50% as an incumbent, it's going to be very hard to win.

Maybe I've been brainwashed but all signs point to a Kerry victory. Either way, I'll be drinking beer tomorrow.

 

[dazzledbylight]

I'll buy that--a 75% chance that Bush gets in, a 25% chance that Kerry gets in. Last night my dad, who, unlike me, is still watching the TV news, told me that just about every poll had Bush ahead, in all the big states, but the pollsters on the Internet are claiming it's too close to call. In fact, so did the Investor's Business Daily edition for today.

Verte

The gallup poll tends to poll more Republicans in the first place, so it's tilted right in the basic sampling.

Zogby says alot of his numbers are showing kerry ahead, and still showing momentum Kerry's way.

There are a lot of first time voters that wouldn't be counted by the pollsters. They also say alot of the younger voters don't have landlines, and pollsters don' t have their cell or wireless phone numbers.

Others callers to AirAmerica from around the country are saying local people are saying how staggering the numbers of early voters have been already.

Zogby said the last election was around 105 mil. His predicting around 110 - 115 mil which would be the most since Kennedy/Nixon '60.

 

[A_Wanderer]

The polls are useless right now, they can be useful at showing general trends within the electorate but when it comes to picking a winner - go with the betting odds.

 

[diamond]

State Poll Averages

• Florida: Bush + 0.8
• Ohio: Bush + 1.8
• Pennsylvania: Kerry +1.0
• Wisconsin: Bush + 0.7
• Iowa: Bush + 0.5
• Minnesota: Kerry +2.5
• Michigan: Kerry +3.7
• New Mexico: Bush + 2.0
• Nevada: Bush + 4.0
• New Hampshire: Kerry +1.3

A_Wanderer-
I kinda like these trends

db9

 

[A_Wanderer]

I prefer to see the real results myself, if we believed most of the polls PM Mark Latham would be at the helm.

 

[anitram]

If Kerry loses, his campaign will have to look at whether they did everything they could to get the vote out.

If Bush loses, he has only his administration to blame.

There are two kinds of people voting for Kerry: the ones who love Kerry and the ones who hate Bush. GWB could not do anything to sway the vote of the former, but it is his administrations constant arrogance, unwillingness to admit a single mistake, complete lack of humility, and a divisiveness not seen since Vietnam that drove those many, many hundreds of thousands to vote for Kerry.

 

[nbcrusader]

Funny how some see only one side to divisiveness....

 

[verte76]

Verte

The gallup poll tends to poll more Republicans in the first place, so it's tilted right in the basic sampling.

Zogby says alot of his numbers are showing kerry ahead, and still showing momentum Kerry's way.

I know, there's alot of controversy over Gallup's partisan sampling. I don't know why they use those numbers. They're not polling first-time voters and there is evidence that a majority of these are Democratic voters.