MERGED: The Last 72 Hours: ALL U.S. Election-Related Posting (COMMENTARY/CHITCHAT OK)

[verte76]

One big problem I'm having with the polls is that they don't count newly registered voters, and voter registration has been breaking records. It's a matter of, will they actually vote?

 

[A_Wanderer]

Bin Laden:

"It never occurred to us that the commander in chief of the American forces would leave 50,000 citizens in the two towers to face those horrors alone at a time when they most needed him. He thought listening to a child discussing her goat and its ramming was more important than the planes and their ramming of the skyscrapers."

Cheney:

"Go f*ck yourself."

 

[pax]

Why is Zogby bolded (in Dread's last post)?

 

[anitram]

Why is Zogby bolded (in Dread's last post)?

I was wondering that too.

For the record, Zogby himself has called the election for Kerry this past week.

 

[Dreadsox]

Zogby is bolded because he was one of the earliest pollsters during the last election to have put out that the networks possibly had Florida called too early.....

I have a pretty good amount of faith in Zogby.

 

[Dreadsox]

I predict, newly registered voters put Kerry in the White House.

 

[diamond]

 

[anitram]

I predict, newly registered voters put Kerry in the White House.

I 100% agree with you that voter turnout will determine this election.

And I feel the left has a far superior ground game. It will be an interesting night, certainly.

 

[pax]

The key is making sure those newly registered voters actually get out and do it. If they do, in large numbers, we'll be talking about a "President-elect Kerry" on Wednesday morning. If they don't, we'll have four more years of Bush-Cheney.

 

[diamond]

im very nervous.
the room is a spinnin
and
my
world
may start melting as i once knew it.

 

[DaveC]

If they don't, we'll have four more years of Bush-Cheney.

 

[sharky]

I have to go hunt in one of the other threads but someone posted a Zogby poll of mobile phone voters and found Kerry in the lead, 54% to 40%. Only 2.3% of 18-29-year-olds said they did not plan to vote. As I mentioned in the other thread, I really think we could hot 60% of eligible voters showing up at the polls this year. I'm heading in extra early to vote because of that.

 

[diamond]

More Good News
This just in
Impact Detected from bin Laden Tape

Released: October 31, 2004

Navigate this report
Summary of Findings
About the Survey
Questionnaire
Detailed Demographic Tables

Summary of Findings

President George W. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the final days of Campaign 2004. The Pew Research Center's final pre-election poll of 1,925 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-30, finds Bush with a three-point edge (48% to 45% for Kerry); Ralph Nader draws 1%, and 6% are undecided.

The poll finds indications that turnout will be significantly higher than in the two previous presidential elections, especially among younger people. Yet Bush gets the boost Republican candidates typically receive when the sample is narrowed from the base of 2,408 registered voters to those most likely to vote. (Among all registered voters, Kerry and Bush are in a virtual tie: 46% Kerry, 45% Bush).

Pew's final survey suggests that the remaining undecided vote may break only slightly in Kerry's favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew's final estimate, Bush holds a slight 51%-48% margin. The poll, taken over a four-day period, found the recent video tape from Osama bin Laden had no clear impact on voter preferences. Interviews conducted after the tape was released on Oct. 29 generally resembled the polling conducted on the two previous days.
The potential still exists for changes in voter opinion and, equally important, in the composition of the electorate on Nov. 2. While 6% of likely voters are undecided, another 8% still leave open the possibility of changing their vote.

In that regard, neither campaign has a clear advantage in reaching potential supporters. The survey confirms the extent to which the campaigns are concentrating their efforts in the battleground states. Six-in-ten voters in these contested states say they have been personally contacted ­ either face-to-face or by telephone ­ by one or both of the campaigns.


Patterns of Support Among Likely Voters

Bush holds a solid 52%-43% lead among men, but unlike four years ago, women divide their support fairly evenly ­ 48% support Kerry, while 44% back Bush. Married women and mothers slightly favor the president over Kerry; unmarried women decidedly support the Democratic challenger (see table pg. 4).

Kerry outpolls Bush among likely voters with a postgraduate education, while college graduates divide fairly evenly. Bush is favored by a majority of those who have attended college but have not earned a degree.

Among religious groups, Bush continues to have an overwhelming advantage among white evangelical Protestants, and he also leads among white mainline Protestants. The race is a toss-up among white Catholics. Regionally, Bush wins strong backing in the South and Midwest. Kerry enjoys majority support among voters in the East and West.

Each candidate garners the support of about 90% of their partisans. Kerry holds a slight 48%-44% margin among independent voters. Bush continues to hold a significant advantage among male veterans.

Voter choices are more correlated with views of the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism than with opinions about the state of the national economy.


Early Voters

With 23 states now offering voters the opportunity to vote early ­ up from just 13 states four years ago ­ significant numbers say they have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day. Overall, 16% of likely voters say they voted early, and another 8% expect to cast ballots before Nov. 2; 76% say they will vote on Election Day. Nearly three-in-ten voters in western states (27%), where early voting has long been permitted, have already voted.

Both parties have aggressively encouraged early voting and the poll indicates that their efforts have largely balanced each other out. Among those who say they have already cast a ballot, Kerry received 48% and Bush 47%. Those who say they still plan to vote early divide 49% for Bush and 46% for Kerry.


Bush Victory Expected, But More Are Uncertain

By a wide margin, (48%-27%), more registered voters say Bush, rather than Kerry, is most likely to win Tuesday's election. But there is decidedly more uncertainty on this score than at the beginning of the month, or even a few weeks ago. Currently, a quarter of voters decline to project an election outcome, up from 12% in early October.

Registered voters continue to view this election as very significant. More than eight-in-ten voters (84%) call the election outcome especially important, compared with 67% in the days prior to the 2000 election and just 61% at a comparable point in 1996.

As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. Roughly three-in-ten likely voters say they support Kerry strongly (32%), and 13% back him moderately, a pattern more typical of recent presidential candidates.

Navigate this report
Summary of Findings
About the Survey
Questionnaire
Detailed Demographic Tables

 

[SouthPark(R)]

Zogby is bolded because he was one of the earliest pollsters during the last election to have put out that the networks possibly had Florida called too early.....

I have a pretty good amount of faith in Zogby.

I don't

 

[MadelynIris]

One Fingered Victory Salute

This has probably been posted before

http://static.vidvote.com/movies/bushuncensored.mov

Seriously, this is just another reason for me to vote for Bush. I like it!

Mark

 

[pax]

Originally posted by diamond

The poll, taken over a four-day period, found the recent video tape from Osama bin Laden had no clear impact on voter preferences. Interviews conducted after the tape was released on Oct. 29 generally resembled the polling conducted on the two previous days.

"Impact detected," indeed. Bit of a misleading title.

 

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

In regards to the article posted by diamond, I'd hate to see fear tactics win this election.

 

[Se7en]

i am surprised that god didn't strike him down for that one.

 

[pax]

Since I just merged another thread, just a reminder...

If you're looking for an election-related thread you posted (although why did you post it anywhere but here? ), and you can't find it, look in this thread. It was probably just merged.

Thanks!

 

[GibsonExplorer]

Old news item, but it talks about how Bush allowed bin Laden to get away at Tora Bora.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A62618-2002Apr16?language=printer

The Bush administration has concluded that Osama bin Laden was present during the battle for Tora Bora late last year and that failure to commit U.S. ground troops to hunt him was its gravest error in the war against al Qaeda, according to civilian and military officials with first-hand knowledge.

Intelligence officials have assembled what they believe to be decisive evidence, from contemporary and subsequent interrogations and intercepted communications, that bin Laden began the battle of Tora Bora inside the cave complex along Afghanistan's mountainous eastern border. Though there remains a remote chance that he died there, the intelligence community is persuaded that bin Laden slipped away in the first 10 days of December.

(click link at top to read more)

 

[diamond]

"Impact detected," indeed. Bit of a misleading title.

don't look now but for good news-


Bush Leads, Uncertainty Reigns

NEW YORK, Oct. 31, 2004



(Photo: AP)



" … actual undecideds right now are slightly breaking towards us."
Matthew Dowd, Bush-Cheney pollster


The latest from CBS News reporters and analysts on the 2004 campaign:

What Could Go Wrong: Part II
By Jarrett Murphy

Who Will 'Osama Surprise' Help?
By David Paul Kuhn

Divided We Stand
By Dick Meyer

Jump Ball
By Dotty Lynch

Confessions of a Moderator
By Bob Schieffer


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More campaign news:

Washington Wrap

Trail Bytes

CBS News Polls


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interactives:

Campaign 2004

The Debates

Electoral Vote Map

The Democrats

The Republicans








(CBS) By Jarrett Murphy, CBSNews.com producer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In a CBS News/New York Times poll out Sunday, President Bush has the support of 49 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for John Kerry.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters think Mr. Bush will win, to 33 percent who bet on Kerry. More voters see the president as strong, a man in tune with their priorities, someone who says what he thinks. Fifty-five percent approve of the president's handling of the war on terrorism.

So the poll seems to be pretty bad news for Kerry, and good news for Mr. Bush.

Is it?

Matthew Dowd, the president's chief pollster, in an e-mail response to CBSNews.com, says the Bush-Cheney campaign's internal polls also indicate the president is up by three points, "and that is what we think it will end up on Election Day."

Since the beginning of September, according to a log of polls maintained by RealClearPolitics, 58 polls have given Mr. Bush a lead and 14 have been a tie. Kerry has led in only five.

Kerry supporters see chinks in the president's armor, however.

In the CBS/NYT survey, Mr. Bush's lead is within the four-point margin of error for likely voters. The same is true of recent Pew, ABC and Newsweek surveys. The Washington Post, FOX News, Reuters/Zogby and American Research Group polls all show a numerical tie.

While Kerry slipped slightly in the most recent Reuters poll, it was Mr. Bush who dropped a point in the Washington Post survey. The Fox poll saw Kerry making inroads among independents and getting more enthusiasm from Democrats.

Potentially more important, Mr. Bush is not breaking the 50 percent mark in many recent surveys — falling short of a benchmark some analysts feel is key for an incumbent president. In the CBS/NYT poll, the president's approval rating, like his poll number, is 49 percent.

"The fact that the president is not at fifty percent I think is a sign of real problems for him," said Kerry's chief pollster, Mark Mellman. He sees undecided voters favoring Kerry.

Frank Newport of the Gallup Poll has described Mr. Bush as being in a "gray zone." Since Harry Truman, the three incumbents who have lost all had approval ratings well below 50 percent. The incumbents who won had approval numbers well above 50 percent. Mr. Bush is at dead center.

The Bush campaign disagrees on the significance of the 50 percent mark.

"Since undecideds are likely to worse-case split their ballots, then being at fifty doesn't bother us at all," Dowd said. "And actual undecideds right now are slightly breaking towards us."

Newsweek and Pew do have Mr. Bush at or above 50.

Newport said historically the challenger gets more of the undecideds but he had no estimate of how they will split this year.

Most recent polls count likely voters, not registered ones. Given the surge in registration, determining who is likely to vote can be tricky. Mellman dubs likely voter models "questionable at best."

If more new voters come out than the pollsters project, that could aid Kerry. The Fox poll gives Kerry a 47-45 percent lead among registered voters. Reuters/Zogby estimates Kerry has a 51-41 percent edge among newly registered voters.

"We have looked at it different ways and we may even present an alternative model that discounts voting history," Newport said in an interview Sunday as his organization wrapped up its final poll of the 2004

 

[A_Wanderer]

Retired General Tommy Franks who was actually involved in planning Afghanistan has a different perspective than Kerry today (because Kerry thought the SF with indigenous foces was a good idea at the time).

On more than one occasion, Senator Kerry has referred to the fight at Tora Bora in Afghanistan during late 2001 as a missed opportunity for America. He claims that our forces had Osama bin Laden cornered and allowed him to escape. How did it happen? According to Mr. Kerry, we “outsourced” the job to Afghan warlords. As commander of the allied forces in the Middle East, I was responsible for the operation at Tora Bora, and I can tell you that the senator’s understanding of events doesn’t square with reality.

First, take Mr. Kerry’s contention that we “had an opportunity to capture or kill Osama bin Laden” and that “we had him surrounded.” We don’t know to this day whether Mr. bin Laden was at Tora Bora in December 2001. Some intelligence sources said he was; others indicated he was in Pakistan at the time; still others suggested he was in Kashmir. Tora Bora was teeming with Taliban and Qaeda operatives, many of whom were killed or captured, but Mr. bin Laden was never within our grasp.

Second, we did not “outsource” military action. We did rely heavily on Afghans because they knew Tora Bora, a mountainous, geographically difficult region on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is where Afghan mujahedeen holed up for years, keeping alive their resistance to the Soviet Union. Killing and capturing Taliban and Qaeda fighters was best done by the Afghan fighters who already knew the caves and tunnels.

Third, the Afghans weren’t left to do the job alone. Special forces from the United States and several other countries were there, providing tactical leadership and calling in air strikes. Pakistani troops also provided significant help - as many as 100,000 sealed the border and rounded up hundreds of Qaeda and Taliban fighters.

Contrary to Senator Kerry, President Bush never “took his eye off the ball” when it came to Osama bin Laden. The war on terrorism has a global focus. It cannot be divided into separate and unrelated wars, one in Afghanistan and another in Iraq. Both are part of the same effort to capture and kill terrorists before they are able to strike America again, potentially with weapons of mass destruction. Terrorist cells are operating in some 60 countries, and the United States, in coordination with dozens of allies, is waging this war on many fronts.

 

[SouthPark(R)]

Kerry, the retroactive genius!

 

[GibsonExplorer]

Zogby's cell-phone user poll and newly-registered voter poll are very good numbers for John Kerry.

 

[pax]

EV.com still has Kerry ahead. By a thin margin, but ahead.

Plus, as Gibson mentioned, Zogby's numbers are looking very good.

::crossing fingers::

 

[dazzledbylight]

why bush doesn't care about you.....

not sure i can get to a web place again before the voting's over so I'll throw my 2 cents in now....

'No child left behind" s an

he goes to a hospital and extolls their special effort in certsain areas, then several weeks later funding for those programs are cut.unfunded mandate .

That means now the federal law says you must do such & such related to children's education. But the Federal Gov doesn't fund it or severly u n\nderfunds it, thus forcing the states to draw from other state monmies to pay for the mandate.

What's most like to get the axe or less dollars ...money for working class and poorer people's programs related to health, job training etc.

Last year Bush went to a plant/company that he extolls for the kind of higher wage/ higher skilled jobs his policies were producing, the same place this year they are either having massiver layoffs or totaly shutting it down and "outsourcing" the same jobs.

Some time in the summer I heard a report ...either for Iowa or Illinois {I was standing on the sidewalk waiting for a bus with my walkman on} they had sooo littile funding left for education, road repairs etc they realizedthey had to raise taxes after all!

**************************************

REMEMBER: taxes are what you pay for a deccent, civilized society....Health care fot the poorer, elderly & disabled. ROad, tunnel & bridge maintanance & repair, public education....Streetlights..etc etc... DO you really want all thses services done by private companies...like Enron who deliberately ran up stuff as to cause a fake energy crisis in Calfornia. Or halliburton which has charged absurd rates for much of what they are charging in Iraq. The soldier who see they are getting paid 10 timess LESS than what a Hallib employee is getting?

*********************************

The usa is not just a bunch of rugged individualists, we've also claim ourselves to be a community.. How good a community are we when we don't take care of those in need.

There are too many corporations that now treat their Employees like numbers in the liability column of thier accountants, instead of the valued workers they should be treated as.

All of you Christians {I'm a former one who still seriosly takes Master Christ's message } "DO for the less of these...".? by Bush slashing many programs for those in need but the absurb monies he keeps coming back for in Iraq? Trying like Newt Gingrich did to make "medicare wither on the vine" { a real NG quote}? SDOme Christian.

THereare Bush supporters who still believe that Bush supports environmental treaties that HE DOESN'T.

+++++++++++++++++

finally Bush goes around saying how much he supports pour men & women in Uniform....

BY what undersupppling body armour so that families had to go out and buy it. Continuing to cut Veteran's benifits, and general funding to VA hospitals. SOme have closed under Bush's administration.

And as a NEQ yorker who had three near-miosses within our circle of family/friend during 9-11.... I don;t feel any safer under bushm who took away or has continued to underfund first responders here in NYC {still big target} and other things like port inspection etc.

 

[pianorocker]

From the Economist on the election:

The incompetent or the incoherent?


interesting. I enjoy the title of the article the most, actually.

 

[verte76]

It was right there on my ISP's home page that NBC's poll has the race in a dead heat. I just keep thinking "Lord, get me to that monastery on Thursday" (I'm going to D.C. the day after the election for some business and a pilgrimage).

 

[GibsonExplorer]

Last campaign day polls:

Gallup: Kerry 49% - Bush 49%
Zogby: Bush 48% - Kerry 47%
Marist U: Kerry 49% - Bush 48%

More polls as they are released coming soon....Looks like we're headed into tomorrow with a dead heat.

 

[diamond]

this just in:
http://electionprojection.com/elections2004.html




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