MERGED--> NH predictions + Hillary's win + NH recount?

The friendliest place on the web for anyone that follows U2.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
See posts with no answers
2861U2

2861U2

Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
Joined
Feb 13, 2004
Messages
4,322
Location
watching the Cubs
New Hampshire predictions

Republicans- McCain.

Huckabee's victory damaged Romney, probably catapulting McCain to win. McCain was either tied or winning NH even before last night, so Iowa only helped him. Neither Huckabee nor anyone else has a chance. Huckabee is way, way down there and I don't think 4 days can do much. I can picture Hunter and Thompson dropping out soon and throwing their support behind McCain, which would be great.

Democrats- close, but I'm going Hillary.

RealClearPolitics average shows her having a 6.5% lead, with one poll showing her lead as large as 12. As with Huckabee, I don't know if 4 days is enough for Obama to change things dramatically and overcome that, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled it off.
 
Those polls are meaningless as they were all taken before the Iowa caucuses. Polls coming out this weekend and on Monday will be more instructive of the sort of bounce that some candidates will get.

I think McCain is almost certain to win for the Republicans. My gut says Obama will take it for the Dems, but I'd like to see some polling first.
 
Agreed on McCain, and I'm thinking Hillary wins NH, but some up-to-date polls would be helpful.
 
I'm thinking Hillary might take New Hampshire. I can't pinpoint any specific reason, it's just a gut instinct. It's really a toss-up between her and Obama though, at this point, especially after last night.

I'd be surprised if Huckabee pulled a win for the Republicans in a decidedly more liberal state. I don't know if McCain has what it takes, but I would think he or Romney might take it at this point. I just hope I'm wrong.
 
2861U2 said:


Yeah, funny how the only time he was a top-tier candidate was when he wasn't a candidate.
Click to expand...

I think that had to do with the media attention he was getting. Would you agree? They seemed to spin him as the heir apparent to Reagan. That's not really a compliment in my book, but it probably is to many Republicans.
 
McCain will win here. He does very strong with the independents.

Clinton and Obama I think are pretty much even now. If history is any indication, Clinton will come out ahead, but I'm not so sure that will be the case this time around.
 
i'd assume a McCain victory, but Obama's appeal to independents make this interesting -- he might hurt McCain enough to see Romney pull out a victory and Huckabee do better than expected.

if McCain doesn't win, is it curtains for the "maverick"?

HRC and Obama battle to the end in a nailbiter.
 
Irvine511 said:
i'd assume a McCain victory, but Obama's appeal to independents make this interesting -- he might hurt McCain enough to see Romney pull out a victory and Huckabee do better than expected.

if McCain doesn't win, is it curtains for the "maverick"?

HRC and Obama battle to the end in a nailbiter.
Click to expand...

I can see this happening.

However, I think McCain will win by taking some of the independent vote and by Huckabee taking the little of the ultra-conservative/evangelical vote that there is there, away from Romney. I think Huckabee's Iowa win hurts Romney more in N.H. than it does McCain.

For the Dems, I see Obama upsetting Clinton, but it'll be close. I see him picking up some of the independent vote, too, and a good chunk of it. McCain will get some, but I see independents being younger voters, which Obama is doing well with.
 
Also, Kucinich, one of the most liberal Dems, already has said Obama is his choice if he’s not viable. And he has a stronger showing in N.H. than Iowa. Biden, now out of the race, has rumored to support Obama, too. He also had a stronger showing in N.H. than Iowa. Plus, we keep hearing how supporters of the lesser-known candidates do so because they want someone different. As these lesser-known candidates drop out, the “different” candidate left in the big three is Obama. Although Kucinich is still in, Obama could pick up about five percentage points just from him, Biden and Dodd alone.
 
coemgen said:
Also, Kucinich, one of the most liberal Dems, already has said Obama is his choice if he’s not viable. And he has a stronger showing in N.H. than Iowa. Biden, now out of the race, has rumored to support Obama, too. He also had a stronger showing in N.H. than Iowa. Plus, we keep hearing how supporters of the lesser-known candidates do so because they want someone different. As these lesser-known candidates drop out, the “different” candidate left in the big three is Obama. Although Kucinich is still in, Obama could pick up about five percentage points just from him, Biden and Dodd alone.
Click to expand...

Same goes for Edwards and his supporters, most of whom would go to Obama if he drops out. There was just an interesting piece on the news a while ago, saying that the longer Edwards stays in, the more chance Hillary has of doing well, winning NH and beyond. If Edwards were to drop out right now, his supporters would flock to Obama and it would be all but decided. So right now, Edwards seems to be Obama's biggest problem. If I'm Obama, I'm calling John right now trying to negotiate for him to drop out and accept the VP.

It will be interesting.
 
Obama will win New Hampshire. Hillary's support has EVAPORATED there for weeks. In 2004, Dean was WAY ahead in the NH polls but Kerry ended up winning it easily after his victory in Iowa.

Mccain will win easily now that Romney is in the dumps. Huckabee will make a strong 3rd place showing, maybe 15-20%.
 
There is no way Huckabee gets 15-20% of the vote here. We don't have anywhere near the evangelical Christian population of Iowa, and that's why he won there. McCain will win with Romney coming in second and Huckabee back in the pack.

And while there hasn't been a poll done since yesterday, as far as I know, Clinton was still holding a lead, although it's probably a tie at this point.
 
I still think McCain will win New Hampshire but the latest poll there actually has Romney up by 4 points. While Huckabee's win in Iowa helps, Obama's win in Iowa does not, since a Clinton win in Iowa would have completely knocked Obama out of the race. Now independents are excited and may choose to vote in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican primary in New Hampshire. Despite national polls and all the media talk of a comeback, McCain must win New Hampshire because he is not yet competitive in other January primary's to win and needs the bounce as well as the extra funding a New Hamsphire win would bring. The snow ball effect for Obama is starting, but won't really begin for McCain until he wins New Hampshire. In general though, its still early and there are still many possibilities.
 
if Huckabee is in the top 3 in NH, and close to Romney and McCain, South Carolina is going to be very, very interesting.
 
I think Huckabee will take South Carolina regardless of how he places in NH.
 
phanan said:
There is no way Huckabee gets 15-20% of the vote here. We don't have anywhere near the evangelical Christian population of Iowa, and that's why he won there. McCain will win with Romney coming in second and Huckabee back in the pack.
Click to expand...

I agree with you about there not being an evangelical base in N.H., but last I read Huckabee was at 10 percent in N.H. He's going to gain some points from the Iowa win, so 15 percent might not be too much of a stretch. 20 percent, probably.
 
This is hilarious:


Romney's old McCain comments return to haunt him

On Friday, the McCain camp sent out old Romney comments praising the senator.

(CNN) – Republican John McCain’s campaign responded to a statement by rival Mitt Romney that there was "no way" the Arizona senator could claim to be a candidate of change by sending reporters a 2002 quote in which he said McCain “has always represented change.”

“There’s no way that Sen. McCain is going to be able to come to New Hampshire and say that he’s the candidate that represents change — that he’ll change Washington. He is Washington,” Romney said on the campaign trail Friday.

Shortly afterwards, the McCain camp circulated comments Romney made when he was running for governor of Massachusetts more than five years ago.

“One of the reasons the people of America honor Sen. McCain and why I'm so proud to have him standing with me today is that he has brought American values to the debate on the issues we care about,” Romney said at the time. “He has always stood for reform and change.”

The Romney campaign did not immediately respond.
 
As I said elsewhere, until yesterday, I was with Dennis.

I will pray for Obama today and every day until it is over.

Hilary Clinton is Bush with a bush.

Please God, don't let my generation be:

Reagan-Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush -Bush-Clinton.

Frankly, if it was Ron Paul versus Clinton, I would vote Republican for the first time in my life.

Barack and Roll, please.
 
^ Not really; they were both projected to win in Iowa as of the last round of polls before the primary and had begun surging well before that, though their victory margins were better than expected.

I'm not much good at predictions, but I'll go with McCain and Obama for NH. Both had been trending upward there even before last night, whereas Romney and Clinton had been trending down. Obviously the latter two are still looking very competitive, but their worse-than-expected showings last night can only hurt them.
anitram said:
I think Huckabee will take South Carolina regardless of how he places in NH.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Obama is looking good there now too; he was already neck-and-neck with Clinton in most polls prior to Iowa, and most likely the bounce from that will help him (though he wasn't looking so hot in Michigan and Nevada). Edwards has been doing surprisingly poorly in the SC polls, and I think a poor finish there might sink his campaign.
 
Anu said:

Please God, don't let my generation be:

Reagan-Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush -Bush-Clinton.
Click to expand...

The possibilty of 36 years (1980-2016) of a Bush or Clinton as President or VP makes me nauseous. The ruling dynasties in the US need to end.
 
While polls are showing that McCain has the lead in NH I am predicting that Obama's success in IOWA will actually draw independant voters towards voting in the Democratic Primary. This will hurt McCain who depends on the Independant vote in this primary. The energy is with Obama.

It will not be enough to put Obama ahead of Hillary.

I predict Hillary - Romney
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

N
  • Locked
NBA 2022-23 Thread
46 47 48
Replies
1K
Views
45K
U2inUtah
U2inUtah
N
The Way-Too-Early 2016 Speculation/Discussion Thread
2
Replies
31
Views
2K
LuckyNumber7
LuckyNumber7
Pearl
Where the Hell is the Outrage?
Replies
9
Views
841
deep
deep
jeevey
Pleasure Based Sex Education- is it insane or sensible?
Replies
9
Views
842
cobl04
cobl04
S
South Carolina Primary Predictions
2 3
Replies
72
Views
2K
MrsSpringsteen
MrsSpringsteen

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom