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Old 01-04-2008, 12:17 PM   #1
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New Hampshire predictions

Republicans- McCain.

Huckabee's victory damaged Romney, probably catapulting McCain to win. McCain was either tied or winning NH even before last night, so Iowa only helped him. Neither Huckabee nor anyone else has a chance. Huckabee is way, way down there and I don't think 4 days can do much. I can picture Hunter and Thompson dropping out soon and throwing their support behind McCain, which would be great.

Democrats- close, but I'm going Hillary.

RealClearPolitics average shows her having a 6.5% lead, with one poll showing her lead as large as 12. As with Huckabee, I don't know if 4 days is enough for Obama to change things dramatically and overcome that, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled it off.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:22 PM   #2
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Those polls are meaningless as they were all taken before the Iowa caucuses. Polls coming out this weekend and on Monday will be more instructive of the sort of bounce that some candidates will get.

I think McCain is almost certain to win for the Republicans. My gut says Obama will take it for the Dems, but I'd like to see some polling first.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:24 PM   #3
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Agreed on McCain, and I'm thinking Hillary wins NH, but some up-to-date polls would be helpful.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:36 PM   #4
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I'm thinking Hillary might take New Hampshire. I can't pinpoint any specific reason, it's just a gut instinct. It's really a toss-up between her and Obama though, at this point, especially after last night.

I'd be surprised if Huckabee pulled a win for the Republicans in a decidedly more liberal state. I don't know if McCain has what it takes, but I would think he or Romney might take it at this point. I just hope I'm wrong.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:41 PM   #5
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Thompson should have dropped out months ago...
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:56 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar
Thompson should have dropped out months ago...
He never should've dropped in.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:57 PM   #7
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Agree with 28', Hillary + Johnny Mac.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:58 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2isthebest


He never should've dropped in.
Yeah, funny how the only time he was a top-tier candidate was when he wasn't a candidate.
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Old 01-04-2008, 01:01 PM   #9
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Yeah, funny how the only time he was a top-tier candidate was when he wasn't a candidate.
I think that had to do with the media attention he was getting. Would you agree? They seemed to spin him as the heir apparent to Reagan. That's not really a compliment in my book, but it probably is to many Republicans.
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Old 01-04-2008, 01:24 PM   #10
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McCain will win here. He does very strong with the independents.

Clinton and Obama I think are pretty much even now. If history is any indication, Clinton will come out ahead, but I'm not so sure that will be the case this time around.
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Old 01-04-2008, 01:38 PM   #11
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i'd assume a McCain victory, but Obama's appeal to independents make this interesting -- he might hurt McCain enough to see Romney pull out a victory and Huckabee do better than expected.

if McCain doesn't win, is it curtains for the "maverick"?

HRC and Obama battle to the end in a nailbiter.
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Old 01-04-2008, 02:10 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
i'd assume a McCain victory, but Obama's appeal to independents make this interesting -- he might hurt McCain enough to see Romney pull out a victory and Huckabee do better than expected.

if McCain doesn't win, is it curtains for the "maverick"?

HRC and Obama battle to the end in a nailbiter.
I can see this happening.

However, I think McCain will win by taking some of the independent vote and by Huckabee taking the little of the ultra-conservative/evangelical vote that there is there, away from Romney. I think Huckabee's Iowa win hurts Romney more in N.H. than it does McCain.

For the Dems, I see Obama upsetting Clinton, but it'll be close. I see him picking up some of the independent vote, too, and a good chunk of it. McCain will get some, but I see independents being younger voters, which Obama is doing well with.
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Old 01-04-2008, 02:39 PM   #13
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Also, Kucinich, one of the most liberal Dems, already has said Obama is his choice if he’s not viable. And he has a stronger showing in N.H. than Iowa. Biden, now out of the race, has rumored to support Obama, too. He also had a stronger showing in N.H. than Iowa. Plus, we keep hearing how supporters of the lesser-known candidates do so because they want someone different. As these lesser-known candidates drop out, the “different” candidate left in the big three is Obama. Although Kucinich is still in, Obama could pick up about five percentage points just from him, Biden and Dodd alone.
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Old 01-04-2008, 02:58 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by coemgen
Also, Kucinich, one of the most liberal Dems, already has said Obama is his choice if he’s not viable. And he has a stronger showing in N.H. than Iowa. Biden, now out of the race, has rumored to support Obama, too. He also had a stronger showing in N.H. than Iowa. Plus, we keep hearing how supporters of the lesser-known candidates do so because they want someone different. As these lesser-known candidates drop out, the “different” candidate left in the big three is Obama. Although Kucinich is still in, Obama could pick up about five percentage points just from him, Biden and Dodd alone.
Same goes for Edwards and his supporters, most of whom would go to Obama if he drops out. There was just an interesting piece on the news a while ago, saying that the longer Edwards stays in, the more chance Hillary has of doing well, winning NH and beyond. If Edwards were to drop out right now, his supporters would flock to Obama and it would be all but decided. So right now, Edwards seems to be Obama's biggest problem. If I'm Obama, I'm calling John right now trying to negotiate for him to drop out and accept the VP.

It will be interesting.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:05 PM   #15
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Obama will win New Hampshire. Hillary's support has EVAPORATED there for weeks. In 2004, Dean was WAY ahead in the NH polls but Kerry ended up winning it easily after his victory in Iowa.

Mccain will win easily now that Romney is in the dumps. Huckabee will make a strong 3rd place showing, maybe 15-20%.
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