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Old 01-04-2008, 03:23 PM   #16
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There is no way Huckabee gets 15-20% of the vote here. We don't have anywhere near the evangelical Christian population of Iowa, and that's why he won there. McCain will win with Romney coming in second and Huckabee back in the pack.

And while there hasn't been a poll done since yesterday, as far as I know, Clinton was still holding a lead, although it's probably a tie at this point.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:27 PM   #17
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I still think McCain will win New Hampshire but the latest poll there actually has Romney up by 4 points. While Huckabee's win in Iowa helps, Obama's win in Iowa does not, since a Clinton win in Iowa would have completely knocked Obama out of the race. Now independents are excited and may choose to vote in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican primary in New Hampshire. Despite national polls and all the media talk of a comeback, McCain must win New Hampshire because he is not yet competitive in other January primary's to win and needs the bounce as well as the extra funding a New Hamsphire win would bring. The snow ball effect for Obama is starting, but won't really begin for McCain until he wins New Hampshire. In general though, its still early and there are still many possibilities.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:46 PM   #18
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if Huckabee is in the top 3 in NH, and close to Romney and McCain, South Carolina is going to be very, very interesting.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:47 PM   #19
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I think Huckabee will take South Carolina regardless of how he places in NH.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:49 PM   #20
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Possibly. I don't see him even in the Top 3 in NH.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:50 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally posted by phanan
There is no way Huckabee gets 15-20% of the vote here. We don't have anywhere near the evangelical Christian population of Iowa, and that's why he won there. McCain will win with Romney coming in second and Huckabee back in the pack.
I agree with you about there not being an evangelical base in N.H., but last I read Huckabee was at 10 percent in N.H. He's going to gain some points from the Iowa win, so 15 percent might not be too much of a stretch. 20 percent, probably.
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Old 01-04-2008, 04:59 PM   #22
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This is hilarious:


Romney's old McCain comments return to haunt him

On Friday, the McCain camp sent out old Romney comments praising the senator.

(CNN) – Republican John McCain’s campaign responded to a statement by rival Mitt Romney that there was "no way" the Arizona senator could claim to be a candidate of change by sending reporters a 2002 quote in which he said McCain “has always represented change.”

“There’s no way that Sen. McCain is going to be able to come to New Hampshire and say that he’s the candidate that represents change — that he’ll change Washington. He is Washington,” Romney said on the campaign trail Friday.

Shortly afterwards, the McCain camp circulated comments Romney made when he was running for governor of Massachusetts more than five years ago.

“One of the reasons the people of America honor Sen. McCain and why I'm so proud to have him standing with me today is that he has brought American values to the debate on the issues we care about,” Romney said at the time. “He has always stood for reform and change.”

The Romney campaign did not immediately respond.
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Old 01-04-2008, 05:27 PM   #23
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Ron Paul
Obama
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Old 01-04-2008, 07:42 PM   #24
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As I said elsewhere, until yesterday, I was with Dennis.

I will pray for Obama today and every day until it is over.

Hilary Clinton is Bush with a bush.

Please God, don't let my generation be:

Reagan-Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush -Bush-Clinton.

Frankly, if it was Ron Paul versus Clinton, I would vote Republican for the first time in my life.

Barack and Roll, please.
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Old 01-04-2008, 07:47 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally posted by Infinitum98
Ron Paul
Predictions, not pipe dreams.
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:34 PM   #26
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The *fact* that Obama and Huckabee are on top means that the boundaries between 'predictions' and 'pipedreams' have been seriously blurred.
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:03 PM   #27
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^ Not really; they were both projected to win in Iowa as of the last round of polls before the primary and had begun surging well before that, though their victory margins were better than expected.

I'm not much good at predictions, but I'll go with McCain and Obama for NH. Both had been trending upward there even before last night, whereas Romney and Clinton had been trending down. Obviously the latter two are still looking very competitive, but their worse-than-expected showings last night can only hurt them.
Quote:
Originally posted by anitram
I think Huckabee will take South Carolina regardless of how he places in NH.
Agreed. Obama is looking good there now too; he was already neck-and-neck with Clinton in most polls prior to Iowa, and most likely the bounce from that will help him (though he wasn't looking so hot in Michigan and Nevada). Edwards has been doing surprisingly poorly in the SC polls, and I think a poor finish there might sink his campaign.
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:14 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally posted by Anu

Please God, don't let my generation be:

Reagan-Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush -Bush-Clinton.
The possibilty of 36 years (1980-2016) of a Bush or Clinton as President or VP makes me nauseous. The ruling dynasties in the US need to end.
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:50 PM   #29
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While polls are showing that McCain has the lead in NH I am predicting that Obama's success in IOWA will actually draw independant voters towards voting in the Democratic Primary. This will hurt McCain who depends on the Independant vote in this primary. The energy is with Obama.

It will not be enough to put Obama ahead of Hillary.

I predict Hillary - Romney
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Old 01-04-2008, 10:21 PM   #30
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Originally posted by Dreadsox
I predict Hillary - Romney
I will go with this also. I expect Romney to do well here.
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