MERGED--> NH predictions + Hillary's win + NH recount?

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anitram said:


I don't think that is necessarily true.

As a woman, I would like to see a female president in my lifetime. I think when 50% (or more?) of the country is female, it is not unreasonable to want to see that glass ceiling broken. Likewise, I think it's unacceptable that ONE out of your NINE Supreme Court justices is a woman. Particularly given the strength of your law schools and that admissions have been skewing towards females for years now. The Canadian Supreme Court is not only headed by a woman, but is comprised nearly of half women.

I would want my daughters to look around and see that any position, political or otherwise, is open to them someday.

Yes, I can see why you want a women President. But that doesn't mean that it is right to vote for someone just because she is a woman, same way that it isn't right to vote for someone just because he is a man. We've only had white men as Presidents in our history, but still it wouldn't be right to vote for someone just because they are a woman, hispanic, black, indian, mormon, or whatever.

We have nine justices, one of them is a woman, you may think that is unacceptable. I don't know if it is or isn't. It would be very unacceptable if a woman was denied the position because she is a woman. But likewise, how many Indian-American justices are there? Or any other race besides whites and blacks?

It is true that 1 out of 9 justices being a woman doesn't reflect the American population, but I wouldn't call that unacceptable. I would call it unacceptable if someone who deserves the position didn't get it because they are a woman, black, hispanic, asian, etc.
 
Anu said:
/plz go back to the re-tooled FYM primaries.

I changed my vote from Dennis to Barack.

And in fact.

We have already endorsed Barack overwhelmingly~!!!

I am going to talk to Joel and Kim about writing a piece for the main page.

Barack and roll!

:rockon:
 
Infinitum98 said:
But likewise, how many Indian-American justices are there? Or any other race besides whites and blacks?

Do Indian-Americans comprise 50%+ of your population? Do Asian-Americans comprise 50%+ of your population? Does it serve the interests of justice to have a more balanced court, filled with people of proportional backgrounds, who have had upbringings that have exposed them to a variety of social issues?

You seem to assume that it would be unfair to promote 3 more women to the court because that's setting an unfair quota for the men. I am telling you that there are at least 3 women who are equally as qualified as 3 men to fill the spots. All things being equal in terms of ability to me means that we should promote the women over them. I am not speaking of less abled folks being pushed ahead. Do you really believe that 1/9 of your female lawyers and justices are as capable as their fellow men?

There is something off about that system.

I wouldn't vote for Hillary because she's a woman. It really doesn't matter to me and she's not my ideal candidate anyway. But if she was elected, absolutely some part of me would be pleased that the most powerful nation in the world has broken through that glass ceiling.
 
anitram said:


Do Indian-Americans comprise 50%+ of your population? Do Asian-Americans comprise 50%+ of your population? Does it serve the interests of justice to have a more balanced court, filled with people of proportional backgrounds, who have had upbringings that have exposed them to a variety of social issues?

You seem to assume that it would be unfair to promote 3 more women to the court because that's setting an unfair quota for the men. I am telling you that there are at least 3 women who are equally as qualified as 3 men to fill the spots. All things being equal in terms of ability to me means that we should promote the women over them. I am not speaking of less abled folks being pushed ahead. Do you really believe that 1/9 of your female lawyers and justices are as capable as their fellow men?

There is something off about that system.

I wouldn't vote for Hillary because she's a woman. It really doesn't matter to me and she's not my ideal candidate anyway. But if she was elected, absolutely some part of me would be pleased that the most powerful nation in the world has broken through that glass ceiling.

They are not 50%. But whatever percent they are, they are certainly more than the 0% that are justices. No, i'm sure more than 1/9 of our women are as capable as men. And if the reason that 1/9 of our justices are women and not more is simply because they are women, then yes, that is unacceptable and sexist. Same way why there are not more Asian Americans in government. If the reason there aren't enough of them is because they are not white, then that would be uncacceptable too. The only thing that I am not in favor of is saying that since x% of the population is a certain race or gender, that same x% should be representative in government.
 
Anu said:
/plz go back to the re-tooled FYM primaries.

I changed my vote from Dennis to Barack.

And in fact.

We have already endorsed Barack overwhelmingly~!!!

I am going to talk to Joel and Kim about writing a piece for the main page.

Barack and roll!

I think this is a bad idea and I object -- especially to the "endorsement" part. I thought the FYM primary threads were to see "what you think right now" and open to change as the campaigns continue. I think it's foolhardy to crown anyone yet, and I am vehemently opposed to anyone who says "we" have already done so.
 
anitram said:


I wouldn't vote for Hillary because she's a woman. It really doesn't matter to me and she's not my ideal candidate anyway. But if she was elected, absolutely some part of me would be pleased that the most powerful nation in the world has broken through that glass ceiling.

Precisely how I feel. Some part of me was pleased last night even.
 
Infinitum98 said:
They are not 50%. But whatever percent they are, they are certainly more than the 0% that are justices. No, i'm sure more than 1/9 of our women are as capable as men. And if the reason that 1/9 of our justices are women and not more is simply because they are women, then yes, that is unacceptable and sexist. Same way why there are not more Asian Americans in government. If the reason there aren't enough of them is because they are not white, then that would be uncacceptable too. The only thing that I am not in favor of is saying that since x% of the population is a certain race or gender, that same x% should be representative in government.
But I don't think that kind of direct, one-to-one proportional correspondence was what anitram was arguing for at all. She was simply pointing out that when the established pattern is e.g. women making up 1/9th of the Supreme Court's membership compared to 50% (technically, 51%) of the total population, then something might appear to be a bit off. She wasn't insisting that 4 or 5 SCOTUS justices should always be women no matter what.

Indian-Americans are about 0.8% of our population, by the way, so there'd be a ways to go there before being on solid ground offering analogous suspicions. Of course that doesn't in the slightest prove anything about whether or not Americans in general tend to be prejudiced towards Indian-American candidates (though one might point to US Rep/Governor-elect Bobby Jindal [R-LA] and former US Rep Dalip Saund [D-CA] as possible evidence that we collectively aren't) because, thus far at least, those numbers are simply too small to make solid arguments about systematic statistical discrepancies.

[edited to fix idiot mathematical mistake]
 
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namkcuR said:


Hell no. Obama is leaps and bounds ahead of any of the other candidates on either side in terms of speaking ability. His speeches thus far have been transcendent. And poetic. And inspiring.

And whether you admit it or not, McCain's age is a real issue. Right now his health seems to be fine and his energy level appears to be fine as well, but whether that will last over four, let alone eight, years is another matter entirely.

McCain is essentially the same age as Reagan who had some of the most lopsided electoral victories in history and is remembered by the public and most historians as one of the best presidents in US history according to polling done on the issue.

John McCain's mom said it best, she feels sorry for all the other candidates having to compete with her son. I might add that John McCain's mom is 95 and is just as sharp and clear headed as any of the candidates including FYM's superhero Barack Obama. :wink:
 
indra said:


I think this is a bad idea and I object -- especially to the "endorsement" part. I thought the FYM primary threads were to see "what you think right now" and open to change as the campaigns continue. I think it's foolhardy to crown anyone yet, and I am vehemently opposed to anyone who says "we" have already done so.

Anything I could possibly post on the mainpage would be mine and mine only.
Not FYM's or Interfererence's per se.

I will keep the forum posted.
 
Strongbow said:


McCain is essentially the same age as Reagan who had some of the most lopsided electoral victories in history and is remembered by the public and most historians as one of the best presidents in US history according to polling done on the issue.

John McCain's mom said it best, she feels sorry for all the other candidates having to compete with her son. I might add that John McCain's mom is 95 and is just as sharp and clear headed as any of the candidates including FYM's superhero Barack Obama. :wink:

Good post. Considering his mother seems to be doing fine, looks like John has some good genes in him, so I don't think age plays much of a role here.
 
deep said:


I heard it

and it was very inspirational,



Obama :yawn:

I've been on Interference for three and a half years...

and I still can't tell when you're being serious and when you're not...
 
Anu said:


Anything I could possibly post on the mainpage would be mine and mine only.
Not FYM's or Interfererence's per se.

I will keep the forum posted.

Then don't pitch it as FYM's endorsement.

It's waaaaay too early for that.
 
namkcuR said:


I've been on Interference for three and a half years...

and I still can't tell when you're being serious and when you're not...

I did listen to McCain's speech live on the radio in my car.

It was a great speech. This is a very decent, sincere man. That has lived a life of service.


I am not that impressed with Obama.

I have heard many paid inspirational speakers in my life.
Obama comes off well, so does Tony Robbins.

Obama's resume' is light. Light, light, light.




Come November I will choose between A or B.

I expect to vote for the Democratic candidate. Judicial appointments are key. Also many other appointments, Inspectors General, EPA, etc.

I hope the Dems do not give me a mediocre Senator that has no real record.

I have said it before. Obama needs a little more seasoning.

All you people that believe so strongly in him.

What are you afraid of?

In 4, 8 or 12 years - if he is for real he should be unstoppable.

I am not against Obama

There just is not enough "real stuff" there for me to be for him.
 
deep said:


I did listen to McCain's speech live on the radio in my car.

It was a great speech. This is a very decent, sincere man. That has lived a life of service.

I liked McCain in 2000. I thought he would be the nominee for a period of time then. I guess I never took Bush seriously.

He's certainly qualified, nothing about that has changed. But I no longer believe he's sincere. And his willingness to pander to what I consider to be the worst and most destructive constituency of American society makes him trust him less and question his judgment even more. If we all have a price, and this is his, than no thank you, I don't like the sale.
 
anitram said:
The gender v. race thing doesn't surprise me. In our society, it's far more "acceptable" to be a sexist pig than a racist bigot. Even take FYM as a microcosm - there are things said here by certain posters about women, that if they were said or insinuated about blacks, I have no doubt we would not see them around. Posting pictures of witches on broomsticks, for example. Think of an equivalent black stereotype cartoon being posted by Obama and can you imagine the reaction?

Excellent point, and something I have often pondered myself.

I don't think FYM has endorsed Senator Obama either.
 
joyfulgirl said:


Precisely how I feel

That's how I feel too. I would never vote for her for that reason, and she isn't my ideal candidate either if I even have such a thing-but if we end up with a female or an African American President I will probably literally jump for joy. It is way past time, and we need to get to that point as soon as possible. They are both up to the job in my opinion and to see those barriers finally broken would be inspirational and give me some hope.
 
This is how FYM is currently voting in the second round of the Democratic primary:

Sen. Hilary R. Clinton 7 17.50%
Sen. Barack Obama 26 65.00%
Former Sen. John Edwards 4 10.00%

So, *I* did not suggest *we* (no worries here, since there is no actual such thing) endorse outside of that context.

Either way, it's a non issue beyond this board, because when I first mentioned it, it was actually a joke.

Then, I thought about actually covering the phenomenon on the mainpage, but quickly realized that if done there, it would be an article not an editorial, an analysis of the phenomenon not an endorsement of the man.
 
anitram said:


I liked McCain in 2000. I thought he would be the nominee for a period of time then. I guess I never took Bush seriously.

He's certainly qualified, nothing about that has changed. But I no longer believe he's sincere. And his willingness to pander to what I consider to be the worst and most destructive constituency of American society makes him trust him less and question his judgment even more. If we all have a price, and this is his, than no thank you, I don't like the sale.

I don't disagree too much with anything that you said.

I was only referring to my reaction to his speech in NH that evening.
 
deep said:
I am not that impressed with Obama.

I have heard many paid inspirational speakers in my life.
Obama comes off well, so does Tony Robbins.

Obama's resume' is light. Light, light, light.




Come November I will choose between A or B.

I expect to vote for the Democratic candidate. Judicial appointments are key. Also many other appointments, Inspectors General, EPA, etc.

I hope the Dems do not give me a mediocre Senator that has no real record.

I have said it before. Obama needs a little more seasoning.

All you people that believe so strongly in him.

What are you afraid of?

In 4, 8 or 12 years - if he is for real he should be unstoppable.

I am not against Obama

There just is not enough "real stuff" there for me to be for him.

:up:
 
deep said:


I did listen to McCain's speech live on the radio in my car.

It was a great speech. This is a very decent, sincere man. That has lived a life of service.


I am not that impressed with Obama.

I have heard many paid inspirational speakers in my life.
Obama comes off well, so does Tony Robbins.

:up:
 
I think it's a sad day when people are bored with detailed answers about issues from Presidential candidates. Are some people that used to instant everything these days that they don't even have that attention span? I don't get it, especially when we have had a President who doesn't like answering questions and at times seems incapable of it.

The chicken soup candidate

By Joan Vennochi, Boston Globe Columnist | January 10, 2008

The media fell in love with Barack Obama. The women of New Hampshire didn't.

Granite State women came through for Hillary Clinton in a big way. But, maybe it wasn't a sympathy vote, as some analysts suggest. Maybe it was a vote for substance over sizzle; for rational thinking over puppy love.

After Clinton's eyes welled up during a Monday campaign event, women supposedly felt sorry for her and rushed to the polls to cheer her up.

Maybe these female voters saw something more than tears.

During the days between her third-place finish in Iowa and the New Hampshire primary, Clinton showed strength in adversity. While Obama was spouting poetry, Clinton stuck to what she knew best: unexciting but smart prose. Instead of giving voters goose bumps, she gave them chicken soup. In New Hampshire, it turned out to be what voters, especially women, wanted more than excitement.

At rallies like one at Pinkerton Academy in Derry on Sunday, it was "connection established," from the moment Obama arrived, two hours behind schedule. He dazzled a packed field house with a beautifully delivered speech, bursting with inspirational riffs. At the end, hands reached out to touch him, as if he were Bobby Kennedy. Obama's rhetoric, too, has a 1960s feel that many aging flower children could groove to. Ironically, that is the very constituency that Obama argues should pass on the baton - to him.

Clinton's question and answer sessions were dull by comparison. She was especially subdued at an afternoon event in Dover on Monday that took place after the morning's emotional interlude in Portsmouth. Some journalists walked out early (including me), and so did some voters, as Clinton patiently fielded a wide variety of questions, on topics ranging from the role of nonprofits to American policy in Bolivia.

But her patience at events like that was rewarded on primary day, especially by female voters. Women in New Hampshire made up 57 percent of the Democratic electorate and favored her by a nine-point margin.

Specific and unique events occurring in a compressed period of time also worked to her benefit on primary day.

For example, during the debate Saturday night, Clinton was asked to explain why voters found her less likable than some rivals like Obama. "Well, that hurts my feelings, but I'll try to go on," she said coyly. "He's very likeable, I agree with that. But I don't think I'm that bad."

"You're likeable enough," Obama responded, in a tone that came across as less charitable than it should have been.

If anyone should be crying now, it's John Edwards. He had two mean New Hampshire moments that didn't win him any votes and might have helped Clinton.

The first came during the debate Saturday, when Clinton tried to enlist Edwards as an ally, by suggesting that Obama was portraying Edwards as inconsistent.

Dramatically siding with Obama, Edwards said, "He believes deeply in change, and I believe deeply in change. And any time you're fighting for that, I mean, I didn't hear these kind of attacks from Senator Clinton when she was ahead."

In response, Clinton finally flashed some long-suppressed passion. "Making change is not about what you believe. It's not about a speech you make. It is about working hard," she said.

Edwards's sharp response to Clinton's damp eyes during the campaign event Monday was also less than chivalrous: "I think that what we need in a commander in chief is strength and resolve and presidential campaigns are tough business, but being president of the United States is also tough business," he said.

After her improbable primary victory, Clinton said she found her voice in New Hampshire. Voters elsewhere will be listening for it. Going up against Obama's powerful and persuasive voice will be a tough challenge. Besides, Obama now has the chance to win votes the same way she did, by showing strength in adversity.

In Iowa, Clinton trailed Obama among women. After New Hampshire, there's no guarantee she locked up women everywhere else. New Hampshire proves one thing: It's a lot easier to win the hearts and minds of the media than it is to win the woman's vote.
 
Wall Street Journal

COMMENTARY

Why Hillary Won
By KARL ROVE
January 10, 2008; Page A15

What would Shakespeare's Jack Cade say after the New Hampshire Democratic primary? Maybe the demagogue in "Henry VI" would call for the pollsters to be killed first, not the lawyers.

The opinion researchers find themselves in a difficult place after most predicted a big Obama sweep. It's not their fault. The dirty secret is it is hard to accurately poll a primary. The unpredictability of who will turn out and what the mix of voters will be makes polling a primary election like reading chicken entrails -- ugly, smelly and not very enlightening. Our media culture endows polls -- especially exit polls -- with scientific precision they simply don't have.

But more interesting than dissecting the pollsters is dissecting the election returns, precinct by precinct. Sen. Hillary Clinton won working-class neighborhoods and less-affluent rural areas. Sen. Barack Obama won the college towns and the gentrified neighborhoods of more affluent communities. Put another way, Mrs. Clinton won the beer drinkers, Mr. Obama the white wine crowd. And there are more beer drinkers than wine swillers in the Democratic Party.

Mrs. Clinton won a narrow victory in New Hampshire for four reasons. First, her campaign made a smart decision at its start to target women Democrats, especially single women. It has been made part of the warp and woof of her campaign everywhere. This focus didn't pay off in Iowa, but it did in New Hampshire.

Second, she had two powerful personal moments. The first came in the ABC debate on Saturday, when WMUR TV's Scott Spradling asked why voters were "hesitating on the likeability issue, where they seem to like Barack Obama more." Mrs. Clinton's self-deprecating response -- "Well, that hurts my feelings" -- was followed by a playful "But I'll try to go on."

You couldn't help but smile. It reminded Democrats what they occasionally like about her. Then Mr. Obama followed with a needless and dismissive, "You're likable enough, Hillary."

Her remarks helped wash away the memory of her angry replies to attacks at the debate's start. His trash talking was an unattractive carryover from his days playing pickup basketball at Harvard, and capped a mediocre night.

The other personal moment came on Monday, when a woman in Portsmouth asked her "how do you do it?" Mrs. Clinton's emotional reply was powerful and warm. Voters rarely see her in such a spontaneous moment. It was humanizing and appealing. And unlike her often contrived and calculated attempts to appear down-to-earth, this was real.

Third, the Clintons began -- at first not very artfully -- to raise questions about the fitness for the Oval Office of a first-term senator with no real accomplishments or experience.

Former President Bill Clinton hit a nerve by drawing attention to Mr. Obama's conflicting statements on Iraq. There's more -- and more powerful -- material available. Mr. Obama has failed to rise to leadership on a single major issue in the Senate. In the Illinois legislature, he had a habit of ducking major issues, voting "present" on bills important to many Democratic interest groups, like abortion-rights and gun-control advocates. He is often lazy, given to misstatements and exaggerations and, when he doesn't know the answer, too ready to try to bluff his way through.

For someone who talks about a new, positive style of politics and pledges to be true to his word, Mr. Obama too often practices the old style of politics, saying one thing and doing another. He won't escape criticism on all this easily. But the messenger and the message need to be better before the Clintons can get all this across. Hitting Mr. Obama on his elementary school essays won't cut it.

The fourth and biggest reason why Mrs. Clinton won two nights ago is that, while Mr. Obama can draw on the deep doubts of many Democrats about Mrs. Clinton, he can't close out the argument. Mr. Obama is an inspiring figure playing a historical role, but that's not enough to push aside the former First Lady and senator from New York. She's an historic figure, too. When it comes to making the case against Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama comes across as a vitamin-starved Adlai Stevenson. His rhetoric, while eloquent and moving at times, has been too often light as air.

Mr. Obama began to find his voice at the Iowa Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner, when he took four deliberate swipes at the Clintons. He called for Democrats to tackle problems "that had festered long before" President Bush, "problems that we've talked about year after year after year after year."

He dismissed the Clinton style of campaigning and governing, saying "Triangulating and poll-driven positions . . . just won't do." He attacked Mrs. Clinton on Iraq, torture and her opposition to direct presidential talks with Syria and Iran. Then he rejected a new Clinton era by saying, "I don't want to spend the next year or the next four years re-fighting the same fights that we had in the 1990s." It deftly, if often indirectly, played on the deep concerns of Democrats who look at the Clinton era as a time of decline for their party and unfulfilled potential for their cause.

But rather than sharpen and build on this message of contrast and change, Mr. Obama chose soaring rhetoric and inspirational rallies. While his speeches galvanized true believers at his events, his words were neither filling nor sustaining for New Hampshire Democrats concerned about the Clintons and looking for a substantive alternative.

And Mr. Obama, in his own way, is often as calculating as Mrs. Clinton. For example, he was the only candidate, Democratic or Republican, to use a teleprompter to deliver his Iowa and New Hampshire election-night speeches. It gave his speeches a quality and clarity that other candidates, speaking from notes or the heart, failed to achieve. But what he gained in polish, he lost in connection.

The Democratic candidates left New Hampshire not liking each other. Mrs. Clinton, in particular, lets her feelings show. In her victory speech, as she listed her competitors, she put Mr. Obama at the tail end, behind Dennis Kucinich. Ouch!

Now the Democratic contest will go on through at least "Super Tuesday" -- Feb. 5. Mrs. Clinton is likely to win the Democratic beauty contest in Michigan on Jan. 15. But with no delegates at stake, it will have little impact.

Despite Sen. Harry Reid's son serving as her Nevada chairman, she's likely to lose that state's caucuses on Jan. 19. Then comes South Carolina on Jan. 26, where half the Democratic voters are likely to be African-American and Mr. Obama the probable victor. That means Florida on the 29th looms very large. The outcome of the contest in the Sunshine State is likely to have a disproportionate impact on the 23 contests on Super Tuesday.

With so many states voting on Super Tuesday, no candidate will have enough money, time or energy to cover all the contests. Burning in a single television ad in every Super Tuesday state will cost nearly $16 million.

Instead, candidates will pick states where they have a better chance to win and, by doing so, lock down more delegates. They will spend their time in cities with local TV and print coverage that reaches the biggest number of targeted voters possible. And they will spend their limited dollars on TV stations that deliver the largest number of likely supporters at the least cost. Memphis, for example, may be a smart buy, with its stations reaching western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas, both Feb. 5 states. Fargo, which reaches North Dakota and Minnesota, may be another effective buy.

At the end of Super Tuesday, it won't be just who won the most states, but who has the most delegates. In both parties, party elders and voters in later contests across the country will want to start consolidating behind a candidate.
 
Kucinich asks for New Hampshire recount

January 10, 2008 07:25 PM Eastern Time
Kucinich Asks for New Hampshire Recount in the Interest of Election Integrity
DETROIT--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich, the most outspoken advocate in the Presidential field and in Congress for election integrity, paper-ballot elections, and campaign finance reform, has sent a letter to the New Hampshire Secretary of State asking for a recount of Tuesday’s election because of “unexplained disparities between hand-counted ballots and machine-counted ballots.”

“I am not making this request in the expectation that a recount will significantly affect the number of votes that were cast on my behalf,” Kucinich stressed in a letter to Secretary of State William M. Gardner. But, “Serious and credible reports, allegations, and rumors have surfaced in the past few days…It is imperative that these questions be addressed in the interest of public confidence in the integrity of the election process and the election machinery – not just in New Hampshire, but in every other state that conducts a primary election.”

He added, “Ever since the 2000 election – and even before – the American people have been losing faith in the belief that their votes were actually counted. This recount isn’t about who won 39% of 36% or even 1%. It’s about establishing whether 100% of the voters had 100% of their votes counted exactly the way they cast them.”

Kucinich, who drew about 1.4% of the New Hampshire Democratic primary vote, wrote, “This is not about my candidacy or any other individual candidacy. It is about the integrity of the election process.” No other Democratic candidate, he noted, has stepped forward to question or pursue the claims being made.

“New Hampshire is in the unique position to address – and, if so determined, rectify – these issues before they escalate into a massive, nationwide suspicion of the process by which Americans elect their President. Based on the controversies surrounding the Presidential elections in 2004 and 2000, New Hampshire is in a prime position to investigate possible irregularities and to issue findings for the benefit of the entire nation,” Kucinich wrote in his letter.

“Without an official recount, the voters of New Hampshire and the rest of the nation will never know whether there are flaws in our electoral system that need to be identified and addressed at this relatively early point in the Presidential nominating process,” said Kucinich, who is campaigning in Michigan this week in advance of next Tuesday’s Presidential primary in that state.
 
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