MERGED--> NH predictions + Hillary's win + NH recount?

[Axver]

Just out of curiosity, Earnie, if what you say about Hillary is true, then if you took any of the Republican candidates and dropped them into Australian politics, what exactly would they be considered?

I know the question wasn't directed at me, but I would expect the Republican candidates to best fit in with One Nation and its successor parties (paranoid far right xenophobes) or Family First (far right religious loonies). Maybe one or two, along with Hillary, would slot into the Liberals (mainstream centre-right party) - Hillary into the party's mainstream and the Republicans into the ultra-conservative faction. As for Obama, I can see him in Kevin Rudd's centrist faction of the Labour Party.

With this sort of thing considered, the Republican Party just creeps me the fuck out. I think it's bad enough that a party as far right as the Liberals is one of the main Australian parties - the thought of One Nation and Family First rolled together and having shitloads of power makes me queasy.

 

[Lila64]

With this sort of thing considered, the Republican Party just creeps me the fuck out.

 

[the rockin edge]

Exactly. I don't get why Hillary is being vilified just because this wunderkind has burst upon the scene. She's not satan. I think she'd be a capable leader, and, like Anitram mentioned earlier, she has a toughness that I admire. Plus, she's well aware of how the game is played, how politics can get dirty, and I think she's up for it, she won't fold.

*view from one of those dumb kid voters*

Hillary as the nominee will energize and turn out the republican base like you haven't seen before. they hate her with such passion.

Obama is not hated like that + he draws independents much better than her.

The more i see of the Clinton campaign machine the less i like of it.




but then i'm just a dumb kid.

: obamaforprez:

 

[maycocksean]

Dang. I missed the "set list party."

The power went out for a couple of hours here

You want to see a poorly run government, come to Saipan. Makes Bush seem actually competent by comparison.

At any rate, I'm disappointed Obama didn't win in New Hampshire, but as I said earlier, I think it might calm some of the more irrational exuberance and I think that's good.

I agree with those that have pointed out that Hillary will have a hard time in the general election. The level of dislike for her is unfair and unjustified perhaps, but it is absolutely real.

 

[2861U2]

Does anybody think Rudy Giuliani has any chance at all?

I don't think so, especially since more and more of Rudy's people are switching to McCain- exactly what I did.

I hate to jump the gun, but I think McCain winning here is a BIG step toward the nomination. Michigan, IMO, will pretty much decide the nominee. I think it's come down to Huckabee vs McCain for the nomination. Romney needs to win Michigan or else he's out. I think McCain wins Michigan. He did in 2000, and the latest polls there show no real frontrunner.

 

[yolland]

And Obama and Edwards aren't even on the ballot there, so unlikely to be too suspenseful from the Dems' POV.

I question whether Michigan could decide the GOP race though.

 

[coemgen]

Romney needs to win Michigan or else he's out.

Yeah, silver medals will only get you so far in a presidential election.

 

[Strongbow]

Precisely. I don't know where this idea that Hillary is a conservative Republican came from.

She is the most conservative candidate running on the Democratic side + her Husband moved significantly to the right after his first two years in office, her support of the Iraq war, all contribute to the idea that she is "Bush Light".

 

[Strongbow]

Number of actual humans:

1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. McCain

Remember that this is a "blue state".

 

[BonosSaint]

I'm glad to see the Democratic nomination becoming a race again. I want to see the candidates pushed. I want to see them challenged, not just by each other but by the voters. I'm not just interested in seeing whether a candidate can win, but who would make the best President right now and there are a lot of ingredients that go into that.

 

[Anu]

I'm glad to see the Democratic nomination becoming a race again.

When was it not a race? This has always been the year when it is a serious race.

 

[indra]

When was it not a race?

Oh...about 24 hours ago. You didn't notice all the "Obama practically has the nomination wrapped up" talk both here and in much of the media?

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

It was not a race as soon as the media decided it wasn't. We have to stop letting them decide for us.

 

[anitram]

Remember that this is a "blue state".

Like Iowa?

 

[phanan]

I hate Hillary and Bill, and I couldn't bring myself to Gore because of the lies of the Clintons.
Huckabee is a wild card. Hillary is anything but a wild card.
Like I said, Hillary v Obama matters to me. It's not 'interchangeable' vs the Bush etc. legacy.

I still want to know why you hate Clinton so much.

To go from Obama to potentially Huckabee is, in my mind, astounding.

 

[phanan]

Remember that this is a "blue state".

It certainly seems to be going that direction, but I'd say that right now, NH is more of a battleground state. We're pretty wide open.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

NY Times

January 9, 2008, 12:03 am
Primaries: Brokaw’s ‘Novel Idea’ For The Media

By Brian Stelter

Just after 11 p.m., the MSNBC anchor Keith Olbermann drew comparisons between the media’s pre-primary predictions and the infamously wrong 1948 headline “Dewey Defeats Truman” in the Chicago Daily Tribune.

Tuesday’s mis-steps were not nearly as serious, of course. Still, immediately after Hillary Clinton completed her victory speech, television analysts began asking why the polls, pundits and politicians had all forecasted a win by Barack Obama.

Tom Brokaw, somewhat of an elder statesmen of television news, may have said it best on MSNBC around 11 p.m. As Mr. Olbermann’s co-anchor Chris Matthews commented on faulty New Hampshire polls, Mr. Brokaw pointed to a larger fault shared by media organizations, suggesting that journalists should “temper that temptation to constantly try to get ahead of what the voters are deciding:”

MATTHEWS: We’re going to have to go back and figure out the methodology, I think, on some of these.

BROKAW: You know what I think we’re going to have to go back and do? Wait for the voters to make their judgment.

MATTHEWS: What do we do then in the days before balloting–

BROKAW: What a novel idea–

MATTHEWS: –We must stay home then I guess.

BROKAW: No, no, we don’t stay home. There are reasons to analyze what they’re saying. We know from how the people voted today what moved them to vote. We can take a look at that. There are a lot of issues that had not been fully explored in all this.

But we don’t have to get in the business of making judgments before the polls have closed and trying to stampede and affect the process.

Look, I’m not picking just on us. It’s part of the culture in which we live these days.

But I think the people out there are going to begin to make some judgments about us, if they haven’t already, if we don’t begin to temper that temptation to constantly try to get ahead of what the voters are deciding, in many cases as we learned in New Hampshire, as they went into the polling place today or in the past three days. They were making decisions very late.

 

[meegannie]

It was not a race as soon as the media decided it wasn't. We have to stop letting them decide for us.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I love your avatar, isn't that Amy Adams in Enchanted? I was thinking of using that myself some day but you beat me to it

 

[Anu]

Yes, it does look like the media wanted a premature coronation. Funny, because before Iowa, they had crowned the queen of the royal Clinton family. Then they ran to crown Barack.

Interesting movie, this is.

Despite my love of Huckabee's personality, I honestly don't think I could vote for a Republican. I just love listening to him defend working class people to jerks like Mitt Ram-me.

Maybe Ron Paul against Hillary but Paul came in 5th yesterday.

Why do I dislike Hillary?

Two examples. There could be many more.

http://jackandjillpolitics.blogspot.com/2007/12/hillary-clinton-comes-out-against.html

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/usa/2008/01/not_a_contrast.html

 

[U2democrat]

She uses Rovian tactics. How is that change?

 

[joyfulgirl]

It was not a race as soon as the media decided it wasn't. We have to stop letting them decide for us.

Exactly. I honestly think the people of New Hampshire gave a big fuck you to the media last night who had declared Hillary's career over. Absolutely disgusting. And maybe this has been said already, I haven't scrolled through to catch up, but Hillary has been terribly ganged up on by the other candidates who all happen to be men. Now, I don't think it's a gender issue for these men (at least not Obama and Edwards), it's probably more of a Clinton Dynasty issue, but for women of a certain age seeing a woman bullied like that and knowing what that feels like it became a gender issue for them. I've been critical of Hillary but she is perfectly competent and would get the job done.

And Edwards is starting to get bitter and angry. I didn't like him last night.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Yes in general people in NH do not like to be told what to do and what they are doing before they have done it, that's generally true of the whole New England area (and countrywide). The polls were proven inaccurate as well, unless numerous people changed their minds. But those polls are promoted so much by the media and have a psychological effect on people.

I think Barack Obama would use Rovian tactics too if he thought it could get him elected, any of them would. I would guess he is every bit as ambitious as Hillary Clinton is, he just knows how to put it in a "kinder, gentler" package. And of course there are the gender issues about women being ambitious (and Hillary in particular) and that whole deal.

 

[U2democrat]

So people care more about sticking it to the media than really voting for what they believe in? That's smart.

I don't believe Obama would stoop to the Rovian tactics. He has different methods. We've already seen Clinton doing it i.e. Bringing up Gordon Brown being tested by al Qaeda.

So why is gender affecting her and race not seemingly affecting Obama?

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

So people care more about sticking it to the media than really voting for what they believe in?

That's not what I'm saying, people are smarter than that. They were going to vote how they did regardless, that's what I'm saying. They make up their own minds independently. That's why NH's motto is "live free or die".

I am cynical about all politicians, I like and admire Senator Obama very much but I stand by what I said. I think it could be possible that gender trumps even race when we are talking about Presidential politics. It's not as acceptable anymore to be racist in that regard, but it is still far more acceptable to be sexist. Senator Obama is a man first and foremost as a candidate, not an African American man. Plenty of men have run for President, there's a proven history there. By no means am I downplaying racism or his experience of racism or what he could still experience, I would never do that.

We have come a long way baby but there are still gender issues at play here-you can merely read some posts in this forum to see that. I am not saying and would never say that it controls anything and everything and that Hillary can hang her hat on it for everything, but it is there all the same. There is still racism too- which I am more than willing to admit I don't see nearly as much regarding Senator Obama, mostly because of where I live.

 

[phanan]

Why do I dislike Hillary?

Two examples. There could be many more.

http://jackandjillpolitics.blogspot.com/2007/12/hillary-clinton-comes-out-against.html

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/usa/2008/01/not_a_contrast.html

Regarding the first one, I see that she supports the measure for reducing sentences for people caught with crack cocaine, but is against anything retroactive.

Is that really so bad for you to dislike her? I can certainly understand not wanting to have over 20,000 crack addicts suddenly back on the street all at once.

As for your second link, the article got it wrong. Click on the link they provide for the vote on limiting roving wiretaps. Clinton was in favor of that. And debate over the Patriot Act was only cutoff once it was realized that the Republicans would not back down. Best to get something out of the reauthorisation than nothing at all.

I thank you for the examples, as obscure as they were. Can't say I agree, though.

 

[BVS]

I thank you for the examples, as obscure as they were. Can't say I agree, though.

I agree, those are some obscure examples, and definately not anything to make one want to vote for Huckabilly

I'm thinking it's something a little more personal.

 

[Jeannieco]

YES WE CAN

"Yes we can"

It was a creed written into the founding documents that declared the
destiny of a nation.

Yes we can.

It was whispered by slaves and abolitionists as they blazed a trail
toward freedom through the darkest of nights.

Yes we can.

It was sung by immigrants as they struck out from distant shores and
pioneers who pushed westward against an unforgiving wilderness.

Yes we can.

It was the call of workers who organized; women who reached for the
ballot; a President who chose the moon as our new frontier; and a King who took us to the mountaintop and pointed the way to the Promised Land.

Yes we can to justice and equality. Yes we can to opportunity and
prosperity. Yes we can heal this nation. Yes we can repair this
world. Yes we can.

And so tomorrow, as we take this campaign South and West; as we learn
that the struggles of the textile worker in Spartanburg are not so
different than the plight of the dishwasher in Las Vegas; that the
hopes of the little girl who goes to a crumbling school in Dillon are
the same as the dreams of the boy who learns on the streets of LA; we
will remember that there is something happening in America; that we
are not as divided as our politics suggests; that we are one people;
we are one nation; and together, we will begin the next great chapter
in America's story with three words that will ring from coast to
coast; from sea to shining sea - Yes. We. Can.








"Come on, people We've got to come TOGETHER
Its you and me HOPE will make us stronger
FREEDOM IT RINGS, DO YOU HEAR IT CALLING?
Reach out and touch And love will take us higher"

 

[U2democrat]

There is still racism too- which I am more than willing to admit I don't see nearly as much regarding Senator Obama, mostly because of where I live.

This could be why you and I are actually disagreeing (for once! lol).
Around here I'm much more concerned about the issue of race than gender, it is after all the capital of the Confederacy.

But let's put this entire thing in context:
For the course of an entire year Hillary had about a double digit lead over Obama in NH, it wasn't until Iowa that that lead seemed to dissolve.

A week ago, the story would have been "Obama comes in close second!" As opposed to "Hillary is the comeback kid!"

 

[coemgen]

This may have been posted already, but it's very interesting.

The woman who asked Clinton the question that made her cry voted Obama! She attended an Obama rally and she herself was moved to tears by what he said - twice.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/01/09/intv.barack.obama.am.cnn

For some reason this link may not work, but you'll see the video there.