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Old 01-06-2008, 07:35 PM   #136
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Again, the first majority of the popular for a President since 1988 was given to George Bush in 2004 in an election with the largest voter turnout in 40 years. Thats huge. The GOP increased their numbers in 2004 which was the first time an incumbent President had done so in half a century. Again, that is significant.
And again, it's even more significant that in the 2000 election, he was the first candidate in over 100 years to win the election without winning the popular vote.

And I'd say that by 2006, the GOP's numbers decreased. So all in all, any significance you claim is offset by those two factors.
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Old 01-06-2008, 07:38 PM   #137
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Looks like Obama is going to take New Hampshire:

Poll: Obama opens double-digit lead over Clinton


NEW: Obama leading Clinton 39 percent to 29 percent in recent N.H. poll

McCain is leading the GOP pack in New Hampshire

Romney was front-runner in most New Hampshire polls until last month

New Hampshire holds its primaries January 8

By Paul Steinhauser
CNN Deputy Political Director
MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Two days before New Hampshire's Democratic primary, Sen. Barack Obama has opened a double-digit lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in that state, a new CNN-WMUR poll found Sunday.

Obama, the first-term senator from Illinois who won last week's Iowa caucuses, led the New York senator and former first lady 39 percent to 29 percent in a poll conducted Saturday and Sunday -- a sharp change from a poll out Saturday that showed the Democratic front-runners tied at 33 percent.

Support for former Sen. John Edwards, who edged out Clinton for second place in Iowa, dropped from 20 percent in Saturday's poll to 16 percent.

On the Republican side, Sen.John McCain leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by a narrower margin -- 32 percent to 26 percent, the survey found -- while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee moved up to third after winning last week in Iowa.

The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, surveyed 341 likely Democrats and 268 Republicans likely to vote in Tuesday's primary. It had a sampling error of 5 percentage points. Watch how the candidates rank in polls »

"The Iowa caucus results have convinced growing numbers of Granite State voters that Obama can really go all the way," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "In December, 45 percent thought Clinton had the best chance of beating the GOP nominee.

But in Saturday's poll, Clinton and Obama were tied on that measure, and now Obama has a 42 percent to 31 percent edge over Clinton on electability."

And CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider said the poll "strongly suggests an Obama surge in New Hampshire." Watch the differences between Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses »

"Obama's gaining about three points a day, at the expense of both Clinton and Edwards," Schneider said. "Obama's lead has now hit double digits going into the home stretch."

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson ranked fourth among the Democratic contenders with 7 percent, while Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich trailed at 2 percent. Former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel had less than one half of 1 percent support.

The big difference was in third place, where Huckabee -- whose upset win in Iowa came after being outspent by millions of dollars by Romney -- passed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's.

In Saturday's poll, Giuliani had 14 percent and Huckabee had 11 percent; those numbers were reversed on Sunday.

The results suggest that Huckabee's win in Iowa, which saw him win strong support among evangelical Christian voters, is giving him momentum in more secular, libertarian-oriented New Hampshire, Schneider said.

Anti-war Texas congressman and onetime Libertarian Party presidential nominee Ron Paul was in fifth place at 10 percent in the poll, with Rep. Duncan Hunter of California and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee both at 1 percent.







Keep in mind, this doesn't include independents, which Obama does well with.
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Old 01-06-2008, 07:46 PM   #138
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Originally posted by U2democrat
I've been wondering that too.


So many Americans don't understand the primary-general process, how is this being explained overseas?

I'm really curious.
I've had to explain to a couple of friends just what's going on, but most of the people I know are fairly politically knowledgeable, so I can't really provide much of a definite angle on how people in general are seeing this. However, from the coverage, I can imagine people might get the false impression that Obama vs Clinton is the actual race itself, with Obama the centre-left candidate and Clinton the centre-right (which she probably is from a non-US standpoint). The Republicans get much less coverage and appear to be fringe far right loonies really. Especially Huckabee. I imagine that they probably appear to be the equivalent of Family First in both ideology and influence to the average Australian.
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:06 PM   #139
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Quote:
Originally posted by Axver


with Obama the centre-left candidate and Clinton the centre-right (which she probably is from a non-US standpoint).
She IS center right ( I call her BUSH light) here in the Northwest part of the states. The NW is very BLUE (Liberal leaning)
and that is exactly why I am not voting for her. Besides she is a sell out and corporate all the way ect, ect...

Good news about the new poll numbers!
I am so excited for Obama!
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:12 PM   #140
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I trust one pollster and he is currently calling it a tie between Obama and Clinton. Dead Heat.

When his current analysis comes out tomorrow, I will weigh in, but I have to scratch my head when he is projecting a tie and everyone else is projecting a 10% Obama lead.
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:13 PM   #141
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It's similar in Germany. Most of the coverage is how Obama and Clinton are competing, and then there is every now and then a run-down on the Republicans, basically just Guiliani, because people still remember him, and then the leading candidates, so far Romney and Huckabee. So far, there was only little coverage of McCain, and the other candidates hardly got ever mentioned, except Thompson, because he is an actor, and Tancredo when he made his stupid nuke-statement or whatever crap he talked about.

I think, those who care about the US elections know that there is the primaries currently going on, and the actual Presidential vote still to come, and those who don't know about usually don't care either.
Often, you'll find a small box in reports or articles about the Primaries explaining the US election process in short, but I'm sure some still think it's already election time.
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:24 PM   #142
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dreadsox
I trust one pollster and he is currently calling it a tie between Obama and Clinton. Dead Heat.

When his current analysis comes out tomorrow, I will weigh in, but I have to scratch my head when he is projecting a tie and everyone else is projecting a 10% Obama lead.
Ya, polls are polls, but regardless, Obama is experiencing a huge "bump" after Iowa regardless of the exact percentage!
Something really special is going on right now, he is on a roll, it's in the air... I can feel it!!
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:29 PM   #143
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jeannieco


Ya, polls are polls, but regardless, Obama is experiencing a huge "bump" after Iowa regardless of the exact percentage!
Something really special is going on right now, he is on a roll, it's in the air... I can feel it!!
Yeah, there's definitely an excitement around him and his camp that nobody else has. I keep reading and hearing (even personal stories from people I know) of so many Republicans even supporting the guy. I think it's because he's new, different and has a fresh view on things.

One of the best quotes I've heard on it was the final one in an article in the Kansas City Star. A professor (I think from Drake University in Iowa) said "Clinton is running against Republicans, Edwards is running against corporate America and Obama is running against politics itself."

Gave me goosebumps.
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:35 PM   #144
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jeannieco
She IS center right ( I call her BUSH light) here in the Northwest part of the states. The NW is very BLUE (Liberal leaning)
and that is exactly why I am not voting for her. Besides she is a sell out and corporate all the way ect, ect...
To someone such as myself - and I'm sure other Kiwis and Aussies share this perspective - the US lacks a viable left wing, progressive option. The Republicans are obviously right wing, tending to the extreme far right, and the Democrats are centre leaning right. I like Kucinich so much because he actually seems to be on the left.

But then I'm a social democrat, and I'm one of the people in the last Aussie federal election who helped the Greens have their best performance yet (they now have five Senate seats).
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:43 PM   #145
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Originally posted by Strongbow


The vast majority were including the three leading Democratic Candidates. There were several spending bills presented with the stipulation of withdrawing all US combat troops by March 31, 2008 and the vast majority of Democrats supported it.
You're arguing that the Democrats were 'completely ineffective', but you're digging your own hole. The vast majority of Democrats supported those spending bills just as you say they did, and they wanted the deadline to withdraw the troops, just as they said they did as soon as they were elected, and the reason these bills were 'completely ineffective' was because none of them ever became reality. Bush vetoed all of them and the Democrats never had a big enough majority to to override any of those vetoes. If they did, the deadline would've been set. It is entirely George W. Bush's fault/responsibility/whatever that the Democrats have been 'completely ineffective' in accomplishing what they said they wanted to. You can't get things done in Congress when the President keeps standing in your way.
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:50 PM   #146
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Quote:
Originally posted by coemgen


Yeah, there's definitely an excitement around him and his camp that nobody else has. I keep reading and hearing (even personal stories from people I know) of so many Republicans even supporting the guy. I think it's because he's new, different and has a fresh view on things.

One of the best quotes I've heard on it was the final one in an article in the Kansas City Star. A professor (I think from Drake University in Iowa) said "Clinton is running against Republicans, Edwards is running against corporate America and Obama is running against politics itself."

Gave me goosebumps.
Oh wow, that is a GREAT quote! Exactly why he appeals to EVERYONE! Love it!
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:54 PM   #147
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You can't get things done in Congress when the President keeps standing in your way.
In Sting's world this is "crushing" an entire party.
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Old 01-06-2008, 08:57 PM   #148
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In Sting's world this is "crushing" an entire party.
Strongbow is Sting? Wow, I had no idea.
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Old 01-06-2008, 09:06 PM   #149
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I'm all for how Obama could change the appearance of the US to the global community, which is no small feat at this point and can't be underestimated.

However, I find him disingenuous on a several issues. He presents his health care plan as being universal when as I understand it, it stops short of being universal. It does not guarantee health care for every American. I know it's been talked about to death, and no plan is perfect, but I think a lot of people are still under the impression that he's offering universal healthcare. He is also touting how anti-war he's been when in fact after voting against the war, which was great, he then voted to continue funding the war at every opportunity. And his connections to corporate lobbyists is certainly not The Change I'm looking for (http://www.boston.com/news/nation/ar...ith_lobbyists/). So yeah, I find him a bit smarmy. But they all are in some way or another, and at least they're all lightyears ahead of Bush in intelligence and competence. I'll support Edwards in the NM primary unless something dramatic happens to change my mind, and an Obama/Edwards ticket would be something I could get a little excited about. But I certainly haven't gulped up the Obama Kool-Aid.
Not everyone who supports Obama is being swept away by the fervor. I've been an admirer of his since well before he was a candidate, and believe me, if anything, I've been more disappointed in him, not less since he started campaigning. I'm trusting that he's still the same guy that I read about back in 2006, but I also realize he's human and as likely to fall victim to the usual political temptations that most people do. I didn't like a number of things he's done/said since he declared his candidacy but on the whole I still think he could provide the fresh leadership, and yes, change, that this country needs.

I don't much care for Kool-Aid.
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Old 01-06-2008, 09:09 PM   #150
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And I'd also add that Obama has done a lot to re-energize the electorate about the possiblities of what this country can do, especially among younger people. That is so important! Because when we become cynical and figure there's nothing we can do any way, then only the fringe types and moneyed lobbyists are active and we give up the reigns of the government that is supposedly ours.

Obama gives people a sense that they can still make a difference, that what they do does actually matter.
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