MERGED: Madrid Bombing

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FizzingWhizzbees said:
And this would affect the accuracy of exit polls how exactly?

It would be difficult to comment on the accuracy of the exit polls when all we have is iacrobat's characterization of the polls.

Even so, the polls show a trend - one towards the PSOE after the terrorist attack.
 
nbcrusader said:


It would be difficult to comment on the accuracy of the exit polls when all we have is iacrobat's characterization of the polls.

Even so, the polls show a trend - one towards the PSOE after the terrorist attack.

What you want to say is "iacrobat's claim" about the polls. I am not sure how one "characterises" statistics.

So it goes, I sat down to watch the election covergae at 8pm on MArch 14th. 2 of the 3 major networks that we get were predicting a PP win based on exit polls. The other network showed a neck and neck race.

I have searched the network's websites for the original exit polls, but I guess they weren't eager to show how far off they were because I couldn't find them. However, if you follow this link to Yahoo news, it gives you the break down:

http://es.news.yahoo.com/040314/44/3arap.html

I tried running this through translation software which mangled it, so here is my
2 minute translation of the first 3 paragraphs:

"March 14, 8.44pm

MADRID (Reuters) -Different exit polls conducted by the mass media after the closing of voting stations showed different winners, but also noted a significant gain for the PSOE.

The network Ser was predicting a PSOE victory in the popular vote, but it showed the PP winning the election with more seats. However, TVE was predicting victory for the PSOE, winning 4 seats more than the PP.

For their part, Telecinco and Antena were both predicting a victory in seats for the PP in the general elections held on Sunday."

You can click the link and read the details and breakdown of the seats, if you speak Spanish. You can try a translator if you want as well. I was watching Telecinco, who predicted a substantial victory for the PP.

None of the exit polls were even close.
 
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I was just wondering, did the PP lose because of a higher turnout or did people actually change their mind and went from PP to the Socialists?
 
Higher turnout. The same number of people voted for the PP in the 2000 election as did in the 2004 election, as far as I know.
 
Jordanian Suspected Behind Madrid Attacks


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Mar 26, 4:50 PM (ET)

By DANIEL WOOLLS


MADRID, Spain (AP) - Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian linked to al-Qaida and suspected of heading a terrorist network in Iraq, is now believed to have been the brains behind the deadly Madrid railway attacks, a French investigator told The Associated Press on Friday.

Investigator Jean-Charles Brisard said Spanish officials told him some suspects held in the March 11 attacks were in contact with al-Zarqawi as recently as a month or two before the bombings, which killed 190 people and wounded more than 1,800.

"They believe today he was the mastermind," Brisard, who is probing the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, said in a telephone interview from Geneva, Switzerland.

The Spanish Interior Ministry declined to comment on his assertions. "The investigation is at a critical stage," a ministry official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Brisard's comments came as the probe spread to Germany, a key staging ground for the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington.

German police raided an apartment in Darmstadt where a Moroccan suspect arrested Wednesday in the Madrid train bombings stayed briefly last year. The 28-year-old man is suspected of membership in a foreign terrorist organization, a prosecutor said.

But German officials said they had no evidence that the Madrid attacks were planned or prepared in Germany.

Morocco, the native country of at least nine of the suspects, reported its first arrests in the case, although a senior official said they had not yielded significant information.

In Spain, authorities announced another arrest Friday, and a judge charged a 12th suspect in the case.

Spanish investigators believe six or seven of the 18 people now in custody in Spain helped plan the Madrid attacks and that al-Zarqawi was behind the plot, Brisard said.

In just two weeks, Spanish police say they have put together most of the pieces of the puzzle behind the bombings, Brisard said. "The picture is almost complete now," Brisard said.

"They are basically telling me that several of these people are talking a lot," Brisard said, referring to suspects he did not name.

Brisard is working for lawyers for relatives of Sept. 11 victims and has a copy of a dossier prepared by Spanish Judge Baltasar Garzon, who is investigating an alleged al-Qaida cell in Spain. Garzon says the cell's alleged leader and other members helped prepare the Sept. 11 attacks.

Suspicion in the Madrid bombing has fallen on an Islamic extremist group from Morocco. The lead suspect, a Moroccan named Jamal Zougam, was described last year by Garzon as a follower of Imad Yarkas, the alleged leader of the Spanish al-Qaida cell. The description appeared in an indictment returned in September against Yarkas, al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and 33 other terror suspects.

The French investigator said the Garzon dossier showed that from 1996 to 2001, the Spanish al-Qaida cell's alleged financier, Muhammed Galeb Kalaje Zouaydi, wired $100,000 to an operative in Denmark named Abu Khalet, who produced some 30 fake passports for al-Zarqawi and people close to him.

The passports were completed in late 2002 but it is not clear if al-Zarqawi received them, Brisard said.

U.S. officials blame al-Zarqawi for the March 2 bombings in Iraq that killed at least 181 Shiite Muslims. Ansar al-Islam, the group to which al-Zarqawi is linked, has often attacked Iraqi targets - Shiite pilgrims or Iraqi police - with the aim of sowing discord and perhaps civil war. Al-Zarqawi is also believed to have been behind the 2002 killing of Laurence Foley, a U.S. diplomat in Jordan.

At Spain's National Court on Friday, Judge Juan del Olmo charged suspect Faisal Alluc, a Moroccan, with collaborating with a terrorist group. He said he found insufficient evidence against another Moroccan, Khalid Oulad Akcha, who was returned to jail to continue serving time for unrelated, non-terrorism charges.

Hours later, a new arrest was announced but no details were disclosed about the suspect.

In Germany, authorities did not identify the suspect whose presence in that country triggered the raid Thursday night on an apartment in Darmstadt, south of Frankfurt. They said he had been registered since October as a resident of the apartment but apparently spent "only a few days" in Germany last fall.

Investigators are examining documents seized in the raid, said Horst Salzmann, a spokesman for federal prosecutors in Karlsruhe. He refused to say what role the Moroccan is believed to have played in the Madrid bombings.

Germany and Spain were believed to be important launching pads for the Sept. 11 attacks.

Investigators say lead suicide pilot Mohamed Atta and other Sept. 11 plotters worked out of Hamburg, Germany before the attacks. Atta is known to have visited Spain twice in 2001, including a July visit that Garzon says was used to plot last-minute details in the devastating strikes on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
 
"MADRID, Spain (AP) - Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian linked to al-Qaida and suspected of heading a terrorist network in Iraq, is now believed to have been the brains behind the deadly Madrid railway attacks, a French investigator told The Associated Press on Friday."

Its amazing that the new Spanish Government wants to withdraw their troops from Iraq who are currently engaged in fighting Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his thugs in Iraq.
 
STING2 said:
"MADRID, Spain (AP) - Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian linked to al-Qaida and suspected of heading a terrorist network in Iraq, is now believed to have been the brains behind the deadly Madrid railway attacks, a French investigator told The Associated Press on Friday."

Its amazing that the new Spanish Government wants to withdraw their troops from Iraq who are currently engaged in fighting Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his thugs in Iraq.

It's not amazing that Spain does want to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan to go after Al Qaeda.
 
Here's a terrific article from the NY Times about the Spanish election. I didn't post a link because you can't read it if you're not registered with the Times.

FRANCO'S STILL DEAD
In Spain's Vote, a Shock From Democracy (and the Past)
By ELAINE SCIOLINO

Published: March 21, 2004


ADRID -- ?P?SALO!" - "Pass it on!"

After terror attacks here on March 11 that killed more than 200 people, a simple exclamation became a call to battle against the center-right government of Prime Minister Jos?Mar?a Aznar. It spread like lightning across Spain - not in cries or whispers, but in cell-phone text messages and on the Internet.


That call offers a key to understanding an election three days later that ousted the ruling party, shook the coalition led by the United States in Iraq and, in surprising ways, highlighted the vibrancy of Spain's democracy.

In the first hours after the bombing, Mr. Aznar's government launched an intense campaign to persuade the Spanish people that the bombings were carried out by Basque terrorists, an enemy long familiar to Spaniards. The two parties were virtually tied in their final internal polls, and leaders in both parties agreed that voters would feel easier about continuing to support Mr. Aznar if the bombs were the work of locals rather than Al Qaeda.

Even when evidence began to mount that this was an international plot involving Al Qaeda, the government stuck to its fixed position about the Basque terrorists, and a widespread perception grew that the government was manipulating the truth. On election day, the biggest surprise was the extent to which this had enraged both young and old.

Some Spaniards felt that the crisis of confidence unleashed demons lurking in Spain's history. It was only 29 years ago that General Francisco Franco died, bringing to an end nearly four decades of dictatorship.

"We are still hearing the echoes of Franco," said Jos? Antonio Martines Soler, editor of the Madrid newspaper 20 Minutes who had been kidnapped, tortured and subjected to a mock execution for an article he wrote during the Franco era. "In every act, in every gesture, in every sentence, Aznar told the people he was right, that he was the owner of the truth and those who disagreed with him were his enemies."

His analysis is far from universally shared, and to claim that Franco's ghost still stalks the land would overstate the case. Still, the heavy-handedness of the Aznar government triggered memories of the distortions of truth, and of the censorship and the propaganda that prevailed during the dictatorship.

Fernando Savater, one of Spain's best-known writers and philosophers, argues a different point. For him and others, the rage that had built up against the government for a year had its roots in Spain's participation in the war against Iraq. "Francoism is the joker you pull out of the deck when you have no other argument," he said.

In fact, 90 percent of the country opposed the war, according to widely-accepted polls, a reflection in part of profoundly antiwar attitudes that can be traced to feelings left over from the civil war that brought Franco to power.

Suddenly, history and current events combined to produce a whirlwind of resentment. Perceptions that the government had misled the public about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq blended with misleading public declarations about the investigation into the Madrid bombings, and both fed memories of the manipulations of truth under dictatorship decades ago.

The vote became a referendum on the government's commitment to democratic rule.

And on that account, Mr. Aznar was vulnerable. For the last four years, when he enjoyed an absolute majority in parliament, he had governed with a forceful, even arrogant style. He refused to heed the call of Socialists who urged him to explain to Congress the decision to join the American-led war against Iraq; his choice of Mariano Rajoy as his hand-picked successor was made with little consultation even in his own party.

Mr. Aznar pushed for a law that made religious education in schools mandatory, enraging many Spaniards who were proud of a Constitution that had broken the overwhelming power that the Catholic Church had enjoyed under Franco. Mr. Aznar's opposition to an ambitious grass-roots movement in Spain that seeks to locate and dig up mass graves where Franco's political opponents are buried was seen by his political opponents as an effort to suppress historical memory.

In that atmosphere, even after the votes were cast, a rumor was posted on the Internet that the ruling Popular Party had unsuccessfully tried to persuade King Juan Carlos to postpone the election. According to the rumor, the king refused the request, saying it would constitute a de facto coup d'?tat.

Few people took the rumor seriously. But the ruling Popular Party was so concerned that when Pedro Almod?var, the country's most celebrated movie director, publicly accused the government of trying to hatch a coup the day before the election, it slapped him with a lawsuit.

What triumphed, finally, was Spain's democracy. The election result was a product of high voter turnout, the enthusiasm of young voters and the migration of opposition voters away from minor parties to the Socialists, because that offered them a chance to win. These people voted "to defeat a common enemy," said Manuel Nu?ez, a pollster for Ipsos Eco Consulting in Madrid, which conducted an exit poll of polling stations representing 500,000 voters.

Nearly 40 percent of Spain's 40 million people either were not born when General Franco ruled or are too young to remember him, and the far right parties dedicated to Franco's memory attracted little support on Election Day. "

But that is not to say Spaniards ignore their past. There is, in fact, a dramatic revival of interest in it among young adults. A flood of books, a major museum exhibition last year and a television documentary in January have helped the country re-examine the terror of the 1936 army uprising and civil war that brought Franco to power.

All of that played its part in the election. And it was a loss the government was hard pressed to explain. "The government is leaving with a very good record with clean hands," said the outgoing foreign minister, Ana Palacio, in an interview. "To be the victim of a smear campaign! No blame can be put on our honesty and our achievements. We did not lie. It is not in our character."
 
verte76 said:


It's not amazing that Spain does want to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan to go after Al Qaeda.

The person responsible for the bombings in Spain is currently fighting coalition troops in Iraq, so its very illogical for Spain to be withdrawing their troops if they want to get the person who did this. IF the Spanish government suddenly wants to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan because they have been rightly criticized as being soft on terror, great. But I would think that any government would want to specifically catch the person who committed this terror.

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is responsible and he is not in Afghanistan.
 
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