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Old 01-11-2007, 09:19 PM   #481
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Bush will attack what he calls supply bases in Iran.

Hoping to bait Iran into some response that will enable an attack on Iran's nuclear program.

This is why Navy Admiral William J. Fallon, current commander of Pacific Command (PACOM), will replace Central Command (CENTCOM) boss Army Gen. John P. Abizaid.

The surge serves as the basis to get into Iran.
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Old 01-11-2007, 09:29 PM   #482
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Originally posted by Irvine511
so ... boiling it all down, you think US troops need to stay because the Iraqi army is too incompetent to provide stability in Iraq. accomplished "so much" already? it's been four years.

this is a total misformulation. and i'm not going to get dragged into your obfuscations.

again, as stated before, this is not a situation where Al-Qaeda occupies large parts of Iraq and is waging a battle against the Americans and the Iraqi government. therefore, sending in more American troops into Baghdad and al-Anbar to help the Iraqis retake neighborhoods that have fallen to Al-Qaeda is not an answer. it's wishful thinking.

if a guerrillia group can bomb an apartment building in a Shiite neighborhood, the civil war will continue. reprisals are very, very easy to provoke, and a state of constant reprisal is not a solution. a "clear and hold" strategy will not work in Iraq because you need a sympathetic civilian population, and polls suggests that Sunnis overwhelmingly support violence against the US.

indeed, the problem isn't "Al-Qaeda" or "the insurgency" -- these are jihadists who've appropriated either name, or been dubbed with such a name to make it easier for Western audiences to understand. note that when Al-Zarqai was killed, "the insurgency" raged on as if nothing had happened.

the American/Iraqi (read: Shiite) forces can continue to fight and to think they've pacified neighborhoods because a guerrilla does not have to hold territory to be effective. all that needs to happen are mor events like the mosque at Samarra and a wave of violence washes over the country again and again and again.

There were only 700 members in the Iraqi military in July 2004. Now there are 138,000 , but only a 25% have the training and capability to replace coalition forces. Building a new national military force is a long and difficult process, but as one can see, a lot has definitely been accomplished.

Al Quada is more active in mounting operations in Iraq than in any other country in the world. They operate with many Sunni insurgent groups as well. Simply abandoning Al Anbar province will not hinder Al Quada efforts in Iraq, it will only make it easier for them to conduct their missions.

Ironically, US forces in Baghdad are seen as a force of stability by most Iraqi's living there. There are trust issues with other Iraqi's there do to the sectarian violence, but not with US forces in this regard. As for area's that do not support the US presense in Iraq, but are suffering in so many different ways, bringing humanitarian aid and security to these area's can build the local population support that is needed in counter insurgency operations.

The Sunni Insurgency as well as the Al Quada elements operating in Iraq are responsible for over 90% of the bombings that occur as well as the bombing of the Shia Mosque in Sumera back in February. A key insurgent and Al Quada strategy in Iraq is to make the country seem so unstable that the United States will lose the domestic support in the USA that it needs in order to stay involved in Iraq. The insurgents and Al Quada can't defeat the US military forces in battle, but they can cause them to withdraw pre-maturely by engaging in actions that will cause domestic support in the USA to decline.

Insurgencies and sectarian violence can be ended if the occupier pursues strategies that are effective in ending them. The key here in Iraq is to strengthen the Iraqi military to the point that it can handle all of the security functions that the coalition currently provides. Once that is done, the coalition forces can gradually start to withdraw. But it will take at least another 4 years at the current rate before the Iraqi military is ready to take on all of the security functions that the coalition military currently provides.

The situation in Afghanistan is fundamentally the same, but we don't hear the Democrats calling for withdrawal from Afghanistan.
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Old 01-11-2007, 09:46 PM   #483
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wow.

i really can't respond any further, especially when a post like that has the following sentence:

[q]Insurgencies and sectarian violence can be ended if the occupier pursues strategies that are effective in ending them.[/q]

i mean ... honestly.

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Old 01-11-2007, 09:47 PM   #484
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Originally posted by deep
Bush will attack what he calls supply bases in Iran.

Hoping to bait Iran into some response that will enable an attack on Iran's nuclear program.

This is why Navy Admiral William J. Fallon, current commander of Pacific Command (PACOM), will replace Central Command (CENTCOM) boss Army Gen. John P. Abizaid.

The surge serves as the basis to get into Iran.


yes. absolutely.
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Old 01-11-2007, 09:57 PM   #485
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
wow.

i really can't respond any further, especially when a post like that has the following sentence:

[q]Insurgencies and sectarian violence can be ended if the occupier pursues strategies that are effective in ending them.[/q]

i mean ... honestly.

It worked in Malaya.
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Old 01-12-2007, 12:17 PM   #486
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Originally posted by deep
The surge serves as the basis to get into Iran.




[q]A Shiite political leader who has worked closely with the Americans in the past said the Bush benchmarks appeared to have been drawn up in the expectation that Mr. Maliki would not meet them. "He cannot deliver the disarming of the militias," the politician said, asking that he not be named because he did not want to be seen as publicly criticizing the prime minister. "He cannot deliver a good program for the economy and reconstruction. He cannot deliver on services. This is a matter of fact. There is a common understanding on the American side and the Iraqi side."

Views such as these — increasingly common among the political class in Baghdad — are often accompanied by predictions that Mr. Maliki will be forced out as the crisis over the militias builds. The Shiite politician who described him as incapable of disarming militias suggested he might resign; others have pointed to an American effort in recent weeks to line up a “moderate front” of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish political leaders outside the government, and said that the front might be a vehicle for mounting a parliamentary coup against Mr. Maliki, with behind-the-scenes American support.[/q]



a means to depose of Maliki and then attack Iran?

wtf.
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Old 01-13-2007, 03:35 AM   #487
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If Iraq is to be compared to Vietnam, how relevant is Cambodia?

Ever since the news of the genocidal scale of mass murder in Cambodia reached the West, I’ve been trying to figure out how to relate it to my previous opposition to the Vietnam War.

At first it was self-exculpatory: No Vietnam War, no Nixon illicit secret bombing/destabilization of Cambodia, thus no Khmer Rouge take-over, thus no genocide. That was my story and I tried sticking to it for a long time.

But it’s more complicated than that isn’t it? Especially if you’re familiar with what’s come to light in the past decades from former Soviet archives about Vietnam. (You have read the Soviet archival documents haven’t you? Otherwise spare me your comments). When 2 or 3 million are murdered, it’s worth examining the causes further, especially in light of current potential parallels.

My opposition to the Vietnam war, developed during my college days was based on the oversimplified premise—which turns out, by most serious accounts, now bolstered by the former Soviet archives—to be false or seriously flawed.

My belief and that of most of the anti-war movement—that the North Vietnamese regime represented an indigenous, nationalist movement expressing the Vietnamese peoples centuries-long struggle for independence from foreign control—was only half-true at best.

There was a germ of truth in it, but more than a germ of foreign control in Hanoi, whose government was in fact a Stalinist puppet state of the Soviet Union (here’s where the diplomatic cables in the former Soviet archives are so important and dispositive). A Stalinist regime in Hanoi, which, as soon as it took over the South, established a gulag system of re-education and punishment camps for all who didn’t toe the line. Hundreds of thousands died in the camps, and hundreds of thousands, maybe more died as “boat people” escaping the unreconstructed Stalinist regime.

Put that in the context of another set of numbers—the 50 million or more murdered, starved, or Gulaged to death by Stalinist police states in the 20th century, and opposition to the war in Vietnam isn’t the moral slam-dunk it once seemed to be.

The Vietnam war, like the current one, was horribly mismanaged, yes. The war was, like this one, productive of horrific number of casualties among innocent civilians, but Vietnam wasn’t all as simple as I thought of it in college. One could still call it the wrong war at the wrong time fought by the wrong tactics, but one can’t portray the “foe” as somehow virtuous.

And Cambodia: the genocide there was as unimaginably horrific as any genocide in that genocidal century. Would that genocide have happened if the U.S. hadn’t so precipitously scurried out (under the aegis of a funding cut), leaving behind one half a nation hosting Stalinist gulags, and a good portion of a neighboring nation, Cambodia, rotting away in mass graves. Was the Cambodian genocide an inevitable consequence of the Vietnam war? Would it have happened however we managed to leave Vietnam? I don’t know, but it’s a question worth thinking about.

The “world community” did nothing to prevent genocide in Cambodia, in Rwanda, nothing to stop Saddam’s mass murder and the ethnic cleansing that bordered on genocide (did you hear his tape recorded cold blooded dismissal of the murder of thousands in the “Chemical Ali” trial?) in Iraq. And of course it’s doing nothing to stop it in Darfur. Whose responsibility will the aftermath of the (I think inevitable) U.S. pullout from Iraq be?

On the eve of the current war when it wasn’t clear to me whether we would actually go to war or not, I wrote, with habitual historical pessimism “war or no war, things are likely to get worse”. And I endorsed John Kerry in 2004 because I thought he would be smarter about the whole deteriorating situation. But things have gotten worse. Perhaps they haven’t for the Kurds, but for most of the rest of Iraq yes, and it’s our responsibility for the “mistakes” however you define them.

But does the fact—that it’s our responsibility for getting into this position (my view of the “surge” plan is the same as my view at the opening of the war: things are likely to get worse)—does that exempt or exculpate us from the responsibility to prevent the possible genocidal—certainly ethnic cleansing—consequences that will follow our withdrawal? Is there any way we can prevent those consequences?

And if not us, then who? The world community? I don’t have the answers, but someone has to ask the question. How do we prevent another Cambodia?
http://ronrosenbaum.pajamasmedia.com/2007/01/12/haunted_by_cambodia.php
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Old 01-15-2007, 09:09 AM   #488
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Did anyone watch the Bush interview on 60 Minutes last night? That smug smirk really gets on my nerves. All of a sudden he's trying out some humility and admitting he's made mistakes, but it just seems so false and fake.

There's probably video on their site for anyone who is interested.
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Old 01-17-2007, 11:24 AM   #489
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Something I read in the newspaper..

BAGHDAD DIARY
In a tux, I hear the bombing

By Chris Elliott | January 17, 2007

EDITOR'S NOTE: Chris Elliott is a part-time trumpeter (and fulltime technical writer in Cambridge) whose band is playing a week's worth of nightclub shows in Baghdad.

BAGHDAD, January 17, 2007 -- Yesterday was our first gig. After the travails of flying here, it was a joy to finally do what we came here to do.

It wasn’t until this morning that we found out what a terrible day in Baghdad yesterday had been. We knew something was going on because of the massive increase in helicopter traffic overhead, but loud explosions followed by small arms fire were so constant a part of the auditory landscape, that as new to Baghdad as we were, we were already almost jaded.

Dozens of Blackhawk helicopters roared low altitude over our heads, and for the first time we saw a pair of Apache helicopters. Apaches are a breed apart from Blackhawks. They are sleek and fast, and their approach is heralded by a lower, throatier report than a Blackhawk. Men leaned out the doors and the guns waved menacingly across the city as we set up the PA system.

The method of death’s dispatch that killed the 65 people at Baghdad University was typical according to a soldier I spoke with today. The insurgents detonate a car bomb, and then wait for a crowd to gather in its aftermath. Then they send in another car bomb or a suicide bomber.

There were audible explosions all across the city yesterday, but one was followed by a sustained cacophonous symphony of multiple sirens. It was the sound of maimed and murdered people being brought to morgues and hospitals across Baghdad, systems so stressed by the incessant fighting and killing that they are sometimes barely able to deliver services.

I had previously heard the dull thud of car bombs followed by the bright, clattering report of small arms fire, but never before with so many ensuing sirens. You hear the explosions in the morning typically. First, the call to prayer emanates from the mosque minarets, and then the attacks begin. They ebb and flow throughout the day, and then accelerate in the early evening as the cover of night emboldens the murderers.

We played up-tempo rhythm and blues, dressed in tuxedos and playing outside in chilly weather as the helicopters flew. The show was a benefit for the Starfish Network, an organization that funds and facilitates surgeries and other therapies for sick and injured Iraqi children in Iraq. Ticket sales totaled $20,000, and in addition there were corporate contributions of more than $50,000.

Life-saving monies were gathered and life-ending horrors were perpetrated. I wonder if sum zero is as good as it gets here.
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Old 01-18-2007, 09:41 AM   #490
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Lincolnesque? Hahahhahaha. All Bush needs now is a stovepipe hat.

We're already at war with Iran? Was that announced on Fox?

http://thinkprogress.org/2007/01/17/...-lincolnesque/

Today on Fox News, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) said President Bush’s approach to the war in Iraq, particularly his recent speech, was “Lincolnesque.”

Fox Host Martha MacCallum asked Santorum what he thought of the criticism that President Bush “is just going his own way, not listening to the people, not listening to Congress.” Santorum responded, “Good for him.” Santorum also added that Bush understands, but most people aren’t aware, that we are already at war with Iran.
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Old 01-18-2007, 09:55 AM   #491
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Copperhead.
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Old 02-15-2007, 10:26 AM   #492
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What the?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/0...-_n_41217.html

During today's White House press conference, President Bush was asked by ABC's Martha Raddatz if he thought Iraq was embroiled in a civil war.

The President replied: "It's hard for me living in this beautiful White House to give you an assessment, a first hand assessment. I haven't been there. You have, I haven't. But I do talk to people who are and people whose judgment I trust and they would not qualify it as that. There are others who think it is."
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Old 02-15-2007, 07:43 PM   #493
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I can only wonder what we would think of Lincoln now, if Fox News had existed then. For edtarters, the GEttysburg address would be a controversial document, if we even remembered ot at all. Funny, as newspaper acccounts of the time trashed both Honest Abe And the speech, but they had to change their minds after a couple of months after people who had been standing close to him and actually heard the whole thing transcribed i t and began sharing it hand to hand. It was like the Sullivan Ballouu letter but not on TV.

Lincoln's legacy was as the great Lawgiver and Uniter of the nation. Bush is the Great Lawbreaker and Sower of Discord. He is a disgrace to the name of Republicanism.

The scary thing is, the legacy makers on Fox (and the cheerieading NY Times) are sharpening their typing fingers to start the propaganda, creating the legacy, when he leaves office.....and for anyone who thinks such things don't work or aren't possible,m look at how we feel about Reagan now, How there aren;t even 2 sides to him. He's the hero who broke the Russians and made America strong again. Never mind that he introduced the homeless to America's streets, began the first mass outsourcing of US manufacturing jobs, laid a wreath on the grave of an SS solider and told the world to fogive and forget, and got 241 Marines blown up in a single car bomb in Beirut (somehow, that didn't become a campaing issue. And let's not forget....ummm...IRAN-Contra???? We have short memories!)
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Old 02-20-2007, 06:09 PM   #494
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This has been talked about for a while, but it looks like the official downsizing of British troops in Iraq has been put in motion. Pretty interesting. I wonder how Bush will counter this?

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/wo...34293f&rfp=dta
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Old 02-20-2007, 06:18 PM   #495
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I wonder how Bush will counter this?
more surge
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