Latest Gallup Poll Shows ......

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Dreadsox

ONE love, blood, life
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Interesting things....read the whole article, while Kerry looks to be gaining, it appears he is behind in many of the core things voters believe about the candidates....

Some of it shocked me....

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/gallup.poll/

Your thoughts, and I picked gallup because some people here believe Gallop is the only way to poll.

:wink:
 
On the question of who is better at expressing himself, Kerry outpolled Bush 54 percent to 41 percent. On who cares more about people, Kerry had 49 percent and Bush 44 percent. On the question of who is more intelligent, Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 38 percent.

On who is more honest and trustworthy, however, Bush trumped Kerry by 46 percent to 41 percent, and when asked who among the two candidates shares their values, voters chose Bush 49 percent to 45 percent for Kerry.

And when it comes to who they think is the stronger leader, those polled favored Bush by 56 percent to 37 percent for Kerry.

So, the polls say that Kerry is better at expressing himself, cares more and is more intelligent.

Bush is more honest and trustworthy and shares their values. He will be a stonger leader.

I'm sorry - this is so backwards to me. If the people taking the poll think Kerry is better at expressing himself, is more caring and more intelligent - then how can Bush be more honest and trustworthy? :huh:
 
Because Gallup favors Republicans. Gallup weighs its polls assuming that 50% of this country is Republicans while 35% is Democrats. At least that's how they did it with their last poll -- I don't know what the weighting is for this poll.

Plus, in the specific quote from BostonAnne, Kerry is ahead of Bush in characteristics that would have been evident in the debates -- intelligence for instance. Trustworthiness is something that is built up over time, hence Bush's hold there was not affected by the debates.

And of course, this is only Debate One. Let's wait for another week or so, get the Veep and second presidential debate out of the way and go from there.
 
Actually, I had read that Gallup used to use a weighting scale of 40% Democrats and 35% Republicans.

Only recently have they raised the GOP percentage to 40%.
 
Yeah, there has been controversy over Gallup's partisan sampling. I look at all of the polls, and take all of them with a grain of salt. This does have some pretty interesting results.
 
Kerry indeed has scored big time from the first debate. To close and 8 point gap in just one night is huge. It indeed calls into question the ability to really predict things when a one hour debate can turn everything around. Are voters really solidly committed to their candidates, or is there a massive block of people that claim commitment, but are really blowing in the wind?
 
STING2 said:
Kerry indeed has scored big time from the first debate. To close and 8 point gap in just one night is huge. It indeed calls into question the ability to really predict things when a one hour debate can turn everything around. Are voters really solidly committed to their candidates, or is there a massive block of people that claim commitment, but are really blowing in the wind?

It's called "soft support". That's one thing that makes me skeptical of polls. They don't differentiate between "hard" and "soft" support. Those "soft" votes can go anywhere between now and Election Day. Although maybe the "soft" support is getting "harder" as we get closer to Election Day.
 
Here are Gallup's samples over the past few weeks. I believe their sample for the most recent poll is now inline with 2000 exit polls. [sorry but the link is liberal blog Daily Kos

Likely Voter Samples
Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

GOP: 40%
Dem: 33%
Ind: 28%

Poll of September 24-26
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

GOP: 43%
Dem: 31%
Ind: 25%

Poll of October 1-3
Reflected Dead Heat 49%-49%
772 Likely Voters

GOP: 35%
Dem: 39%
Ind: 26%
 
diamond said:
GW has to debate better in the next 2 or..he's toast.

db9

I'll be damned if I expected this. A week ago I thought Kerry was f:censored:d. The next debates will be on domestic issues, something that Kerry quite possibly has the edge on Bush in. Of course the public expectations game is in play, and this may play to Bush's advantage. We'll see.
 
Dread has started going for the abstract freestyle post - its like a secret code of some type.all those dancers - is one of them being eaten - this one will keep me bothered for a long, long time; and I love it :huh:
 
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