Job growth up, unemployment drops even more! - Page 2 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind > Free Your Mind Archive
Click Here to Login
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 05-10-2004, 02:14 PM   #16
Refugee
 
cydewaze's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Maryland, USA
Posts: 1,256
Local Time: 01:18 PM
You can make numbers say almost anything you want them to say. It's all selective interpretation.

I was reading some highway safety stats at work (I work for the US DOT) from back in the late 80's, when control of the Interstate speed limits was handed back over to the states. Curiously, several different groups were siting the same study, but for conflicting reasons. Safety people said roads got more dangerous, because there were more accidents, but if you look at the data, the accidents per mile driven took a nosedive, because more miles were being covered. It just depends on how you choose to interpret the data.

It's certainly not worth getting into a tizzy over. Lots of things can affect the employment numbers. Jobs being reclassified, people losing unemployment benefits, even workers who were on strike who went back to work were recently counted as "new jobs". If you try hard enough you can make the numbers say anything you want.
__________________

__________________
cydewaze is offline  
Old 05-10-2004, 06:26 PM   #17
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Salome
why compare figures from different periods without any info on what the main reasons of the influxes are?

we do not know what kind of jobs were created/got axed
we do not know the role of the government in this
if the governemnt did play any role in it we don't know the long term consequences

the info this does give has about 0% to do with politics
so if Kerry was planning on attacking Bush on these numbers instead of attacking him on his policies it would make no sense
as much sense as it would make for Bush to claim that he must be a pretty good president because some economic figures do not look piss poor
The info is very significant and is often used by economist doing comparison and contrast of different years economic performance. It definitely effects the political situation and Kerry has had to back peddle on the jobs issue over the past week because of the good economic news.

The main reason for the drop in unemployment is sustained GDP growth on average of around 5% for the last 9 months. As the economy continues to grow and business's expand, more workers are needed. The Government has played in role in that it has cut taxes and kept interest rates low.

Clinton always sited his economic figures and he definitely contributed to that outstanding economic performance, just as Bush has helped get America over recession that started at the end of the Clinton administration and has brought about sustained GDP growth and now sustained job growth.

Kerry's best attack against Bush has been the economy, and the ability to attack him on that issue is really starting to dwindle.

The Misery index, an index started back in the 1970s to caculate discontent among the population adds unemployment and inflation together.

Right now, inflation in the USA is extremely low at 1.7%. The Misery Index at the current time would be 7.3 which is very low and dropping although as the economy continues to heat up, you will probably see a slight rise in inflation.
__________________

__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 05-10-2004, 06:53 PM   #18
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by cydewaze
You can make numbers say almost anything you want them to say. It's all selective interpretation.

I was reading some highway safety stats at work (I work for the US DOT) from back in the late 80's, when control of the Interstate speed limits was handed back over to the states. Curiously, several different groups were siting the same study, but for conflicting reasons. Safety people said roads got more dangerous, because there were more accidents, but if you look at the data, the accidents per mile driven took a nosedive, because more miles were being covered. It just depends on how you choose to interpret the data.

It's certainly not worth getting into a tizzy over. Lots of things can affect the employment numbers. Jobs being reclassified, people losing unemployment benefits, even workers who were on strike who went back to work were recently counted as "new jobs". If you try hard enough you can make the numbers say anything you want.
The Unemployment statistics sited here are used all the time by professional economist and are the best single accurate measure of the jobs situation.

The unemployment figures presented here are not seen as insignificant by professional economist and both political parties. They are an accurate measure of the current condition of the US economy which continues to grow rapidly, which is helping to reduce unemployment. The other factors involved in employment always exist are not the primary things that swing unemployment up or down. For example, those no longer collecting any unemployment compensation and not included in unemployment figures would only raise the unemployment figure by .4%. They are classified as longterm unemployment which has been measured for countries worldwide by the United Nations. Longterm unemployment has always been there, good times and bad and it has always been a small fraction of what the unemployment figure is at any given time.

The current numbers are indeed good for Bush and economist expect these numbers to get even better as the election gets closer.
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 05-11-2004, 03:05 AM   #19
you are what you is
 
Salome's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 22,016
Local Time: 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by STING2


The info is very significant and is often used by economist doing comparison and contrast of different years economic performance. It definitely effects the political situation and Kerry has had to back peddle on the jobs issue over the past week because of the good economic news.
I am well aware how economists use these numbers
because the importance of unemployment figures on the economy is a major one it makes sense for them to do so

the numbers still don't show you nor these economists anything about the role of the government in this though
no matter whether Clinton, Bush, Kerry or Bert & Ernie want to make me believe otherwise
__________________
“Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe.”
~Frank Zappa
Salome is offline  
Old 05-11-2004, 08:52 AM   #20
New Yorker
 
Scarletwine's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Outside it's Amerika
Posts: 2,746
Local Time: 12:18 PM
Monday's Poll numbers still show the American people's perception of the economy as shit.

As long as that is the case it doesn't matter. I also saw a breakdown of the new jobs on CSPAN and most are seasonal and worse the remaining majority are part-time.
__________________
Scarletwine is offline  
Old 05-11-2004, 09:04 AM   #21
Blue Crack Supplier
 
IWasBored's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 36,503
Local Time: 01:18 PM
regarding seasonal, part-time, shitty "assosicate manager" of walmart jobs:

which has to do with the types of jobs that started going away during the reagan years, and this is the stuff they're replaced with when whatever administration is in office tries to 'create' more jobs.
__________________
IWasBored is offline  
Old 05-11-2004, 10:19 AM   #22
Blue Crack Addict
 
verte76's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: hoping for changes
Posts: 23,331
Local Time: 05:18 PM
I think it is really early to talk about polls that mean something. We haven't even had the conventions, hell, Kerry hasn't picked his running mate. Most voters have never heard him make a speech. The press keeps forgetting that the election isn't until November. I'm just afraid the electorate is going to get fried by an eight-month campaign. It's too much politics. I wish like hell we still chose the candidates at the conventions, that's what I wish more than anything else.
__________________
verte76 is offline  
Old 05-11-2004, 09:58 PM   #23
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Salome
I am well aware how economists use these numbers
because the importance of unemployment figures on the economy is a major one it makes sense for them to do so

the numbers still don't show you nor these economists anything about the role of the government in this though
no matter whether Clinton, Bush, Kerry or Bert & Ernie want to make me believe otherwise
The governments role in international trade, tax's and interest rates all effect the economy. The government has cut taxes, kept interest rates low, and have not tried to prop up the low value of the dollar there by making US exports cheaper to foreigners abroad there by increasing US exports.
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 05-11-2004, 10:09 PM   #24
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Scarletwine
Monday's Poll numbers still show the American people's perception of the economy as shit.

As long as that is the case it doesn't matter. I also saw a breakdown of the new jobs on CSPAN and most are seasonal and worse the remaining majority are part-time.
Last year, these same seasonal jobs failed to bring down unemployment. In fact unemployment increased to 6.4% in August of last year.

This year though, the unemployment rate is dropping and it will continue to drop as the election gets closer.

The unemployment rate is now lower or as low as any time during Clinton's first 3 years in office.

Even John Kerry has admitted this is good news for the economy.
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 05-12-2004, 02:08 AM   #25
you are what you is
 
Salome's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 22,016
Local Time: 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by STING2


The governments role in international trade, tax's and interest rates all effect the economy. The government has cut taxes, kept interest rates low, and have not tried to prop up the low value of the dollar there by making US exports cheaper to foreigners abroad there by increasing US exports.
indeed they did


I've studied enough economics to know that only one thing is for sure:
if anyone really knew how to increase the economy we would all have been doing that 50 years ago

no one knows though
I've spend years studying the effects of interest rates, taxes and the likes
and all we know is that:
1. what the effects depend on the situation
and its extremely hard to predict the long term outcome
2. the economy will fluctuate no matter what

all we can do is try to decrease bad short term influences on our economy
I don't think any economist is able to look at just unemployment rates and by that make claims whether the government is doing a good job
__________________
“Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe.”
~Frank Zappa
Salome is offline  
Old 05-12-2004, 06:07 PM   #26
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Salome
indeed they did


I've studied enough economics to know that only one thing is for sure:
if anyone really knew how to increase the economy we would all have been doing that 50 years ago

no one knows though
I've spend years studying the effects of interest rates, taxes and the likes
and all we know is that:
1. what the effects depend on the situation
and its extremely hard to predict the long term outcome
2. the economy will fluctuate no matter what

all we can do is try to decrease bad short term influences on our economy
I don't think any economist is able to look at just unemployment rates and by that make claims whether the government is doing a good job
I've studied enough economics to know that the Government does play a role in the economic well being of the nation and that the economic numbers I have posted are relevant to the debate.

I see economist and politicians every night evaluating whether the government has been doing its job in regards to the economy. Several of my economics teachers would hold lively debates on several economic issues that effected politics.
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 05-13-2004, 05:13 AM   #27
you are what you is
 
Salome's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 22,016
Local Time: 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by STING2
Several of my economics teachers would hold lively debates on several economic issues that effected politics.
I never denied that economics effect politics (or at least I didn't intend to do so)

and I never denied the relevance of these figures to economists (or at least I didn't intend to do so)

my point is though - and I will stick by that - that by just showing unemployment rates there is no way to judge whether the government has or has not been doing a good job

numbers like these meet a purpose in being food for thought in an economic study or conversation
if anyone would claim they can see an absolute truth in just these numbers they would be wrong in that perception even if their conclusion would turn out to be the right one
__________________
“Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe.”
~Frank Zappa
Salome is offline  
Old 05-13-2004, 06:13 PM   #28
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Salome
I never denied that economics effect politics (or at least I didn't intend to do so)

and I never denied the relevance of these figures to economists (or at least I didn't intend to do so)

my point is though - and I will stick by that - that by just showing unemployment rates there is no way to judge whether the government has or has not been doing a good job

numbers like these meet a purpose in being food for thought in an economic study or conversation
if anyone would claim they can see an absolute truth in just these numbers they would be wrong in that perception even if their conclusion would turn out to be the right one
Well, If I thought these numbers by themselves were not relevant, I would not have posted them. Typically, if unemployment is at its lowest levels possible, without any other information, you can obviously see that the Government has done at the very least ok in regards to the economy. On the reverse side, if Unemployment rates are enormously high without some outside crises, its most likely that the government has done some things poorly.

Yes, there are exceptions to everything. But if one could not infer poor or good performance by the government from unemployment numbers, such numbers would not be used as much or in the same way they are used every night on political talk shows and the news.

Current unemployment rate of 5.6% is one of the lowest unemployment rates over the past 30 years and with inflation at one of its lowest levels ever, critics of the administration who claim Bush has destroyed America's economy could not be more wrong.
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 05-13-2004, 06:29 PM   #29
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Popmartijn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 32,542
Local Time: 06:18 PM
Well, I think a projected 400 BILLION deficit isn't something to be proud of.
__________________
Popmartijn is offline  
Old 05-14-2004, 12:15 AM   #30
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Popmartijn
Well, I think a projected 400 BILLION deficit isn't something to be proud of.
The Country is at war and so running a deficit at this time is necessary.
__________________

__________________
STING2 is offline  
 

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:18 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com