Scarletwine
New Yorker
Latest Polls
Iraq and the 2004 Vote
The latest NPR poll has a few interesting findings that deserve to be highlighted. First, the generic presidential ballot?Bush versus our trusty unnamed Democrat?has changed dramatically since their poll in late May. At that point, Bush was leading by 15 points (50 percent to 35 percent); now he?s leading by just three points (44 percent to 41 percent). That?s consistent with trend on most other public polls. But what's interesting here is that they broke down the late May and current poll samples in states Bush won by 5 percent or more, in swing states, and in states Gore won by 5 percent and more. This exercise shows that all of the move toward the Democrats over this period has been in swing states (from +19 for Bush to dead-even) and in Gore states (from dead-even to +13 for the Democrats). The Bush states haven?t budged (+22 for Bush in May, +23 for Bush today).
One reason for the pro-Democratic shift over this time period is the rise in salience of the situation in Iraq. Just in the past couple of months, the number of respondents citing the situation in Iraq as one of the two top issues that will influence their presidential vote in 2004 has doubled (from 14 percent to 28 percent). And those citing Iraq favor the Democrat in the generic presidential ballot by 29 points. Those citing a number of other areas also favor the Democrats: education (by 25 points); affordable health care (by 21 points); the federal deficit (by 20 points); Social Security/Medicare (by 14 points); and the economy and jobs (by 12 points). But it seems clear that the higher the voter salience of the Iraq situation, the better the Democrats are likely to do in November 2004. Not exactly what Rove and Co. had in mind (see Public Opinion Watch?s analysis, "Plan A Falls Apart," for more discussion).
* * *
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Public Opinion Strategies poll of 700 registered voters for National Public Radio (NPR), released November 24, 2003 (conducted November 11-13, 2003)
* * *
Economy is Up; Bush's Numbers Aren't
Two polls released last week confirm that the recent good economic news hasn?t helped Bush?s standing with the public much. The latest Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll has the right direction/wrong track question at 38 percent right direction/56 percent wrong track, exactly where this measure was in the last half of September and early October. Bush?s overall approval rating in the Ipsos poll is at 50 percent, the lowest rating they?ve recorded for him since 9/11. Even his approval rating on the economy has snapped back to net negative (46 percent approval/51 percent disapproval) after reaching the break-even point in early November. And, for the first time in this poll, the number who would "definitely vote to re-elect Bush as president" is identical with the number who would "definitely vote for someone else" (37 percent to 37 percent). (Another 25 percent say that they would "consider voting for someone else.")
The latest Time/CNN poll has a different re-elect question, but also has Bush at a post-9/11 low. In this poll, 47 percent say that they would be very likely or somewhat likely to vote for him for re-election, compared to 48 percent who say that they would be very or somewhat unlikely to vote for him. Significantly, more people say that they would be very unlikely to vote for him (38 percent) than say that they would be very likely to support him (32 percent). This poll also shows how the public?s personal bond with Bush is continuing to erode. Just 44 percent now say that he is a leader they can trust (down from 56 percent in March), compared to 54 percent who say that they have some doubts and reservations.
Note that political independents have an even more jaundiced view: only 38 percent say that they can trust him, while 61 percent have doubts. In addition, by 48 percent to 39 percent, the public thinks that Bush has been too partisan in office; by 53 percent to 43 percent, they think that he has been too quick to interject his own moral and religious beliefs into politics; by 54 percent to 44 percent, they think that he is out of touch with ordinary Americans; and by 58 percent to 37 percent, they think that he has favored policies that benefit the rich at the expense of the middle class. Hmmm. Sounds like the public?s starting to catch on.
* * *
Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll of 1,003 adults, released November 21, 2003 (conducted November 18-20, 2003)
Harris Interactive poll of 1,507 adults for Time/CNN, released November 23, 2003 (conducted November 18-19, 2003)
* * *
Healthcare Done Right? Try a Democrat
The general assumption is that passage of the bill will significantly help the Republicans by delivering a new benefit to seniors, burnishing Bush?s compassionate conservative credentials, and taking a key Democratic issue off the table. And that would be true if another, better Medicare bill had passed. It is not true of the actual bill that passed. Take the views of seniors, surely where the payoff for the GOP should be most obvious, if there is a payoff.
According to a poll last week by Peter Hart Research for the AFL-CIO, almost two-thirds of voters age 55 and older thought Congress and the White House should work for a better Medicare prescription drug plan than the one on offer. Just 19 percent wanted Congress to pass the bill under consideration. The same poll found that 65 percent of these voters viewed the drug plan unfavorably and the same number viewed the subsidies for private HMOs unfavorably. Also, 64 percent opposed the bill?s provisions to ban importation of drugs from Canada and an overwhelming 78 percent said that the bill doesn?t do enough to protect retirees now covered by employer-provided prescription drug plans. Oh, but that?s just an AFL-CIO poll, right? What can you expect from them? Perhaps it wasn?t a fair and balanced poll?
That complaint would have more credence if we didn?t have even more recent results from the University of Pennsylvania National Annenberg Election Survey. This survey found that, based on a carefully neutral description of the bill, the public as a whole opposed the bill 42 percent to 40 percent, registered voters opposed it 44 percent to 39 percent, those over age fifty opposed the bill 49 percent to 36 percent, and those over age 65 opposed it 49 percent to 33 percent. And, interestingly, those holding a favorable opinion of AARP, which of course endorsed the bill, opposed its passage 45 percent to 38 percent. So, it?s not a particularly popular bill, especially with those it?s intended to benefit directly.
Democrats are going to dwell on the shortcomings of the bill relentlessly, from failure to control drug costs to moving away from a choice-of-doctor-based Medicare system to the skimpiness of the benefit and its impact on those who already have good drug coverage. By these data, seniors already are inclined to believe much of what Democrats are going to be saying. That likely spells trouble for the GOP. Just saying it?s better than nothing won?t help them much, in Public Opinion Watch?s view. Nor will the fact that seniors won?t actually receive the benefit until 2006?and so, runs the argument, they won?t realize how bad it is until after 2004. How dumb do they think seniors are? Public Opinion Watch is betting they?ll figure this one out pretty quick?and when they do, they?ll come to the obvious conclusion: if you want health care done right, hire a Democrat.
* * *
Peter Hart Research poll of voters 55 years and older for the AFL-CIO, released November 20, 2003 (conducted November 18-19, 2003)
University of Pennsylvania poll of 860 adults for National Annenberg Election Survey, released November 24, 2003 (conducted November 19-23, 2003)
Iraq and the 2004 Vote
The latest NPR poll has a few interesting findings that deserve to be highlighted. First, the generic presidential ballot?Bush versus our trusty unnamed Democrat?has changed dramatically since their poll in late May. At that point, Bush was leading by 15 points (50 percent to 35 percent); now he?s leading by just three points (44 percent to 41 percent). That?s consistent with trend on most other public polls. But what's interesting here is that they broke down the late May and current poll samples in states Bush won by 5 percent or more, in swing states, and in states Gore won by 5 percent and more. This exercise shows that all of the move toward the Democrats over this period has been in swing states (from +19 for Bush to dead-even) and in Gore states (from dead-even to +13 for the Democrats). The Bush states haven?t budged (+22 for Bush in May, +23 for Bush today).
One reason for the pro-Democratic shift over this time period is the rise in salience of the situation in Iraq. Just in the past couple of months, the number of respondents citing the situation in Iraq as one of the two top issues that will influence their presidential vote in 2004 has doubled (from 14 percent to 28 percent). And those citing Iraq favor the Democrat in the generic presidential ballot by 29 points. Those citing a number of other areas also favor the Democrats: education (by 25 points); affordable health care (by 21 points); the federal deficit (by 20 points); Social Security/Medicare (by 14 points); and the economy and jobs (by 12 points). But it seems clear that the higher the voter salience of the Iraq situation, the better the Democrats are likely to do in November 2004. Not exactly what Rove and Co. had in mind (see Public Opinion Watch?s analysis, "Plan A Falls Apart," for more discussion).
* * *
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Public Opinion Strategies poll of 700 registered voters for National Public Radio (NPR), released November 24, 2003 (conducted November 11-13, 2003)
* * *
Economy is Up; Bush's Numbers Aren't
Two polls released last week confirm that the recent good economic news hasn?t helped Bush?s standing with the public much. The latest Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll has the right direction/wrong track question at 38 percent right direction/56 percent wrong track, exactly where this measure was in the last half of September and early October. Bush?s overall approval rating in the Ipsos poll is at 50 percent, the lowest rating they?ve recorded for him since 9/11. Even his approval rating on the economy has snapped back to net negative (46 percent approval/51 percent disapproval) after reaching the break-even point in early November. And, for the first time in this poll, the number who would "definitely vote to re-elect Bush as president" is identical with the number who would "definitely vote for someone else" (37 percent to 37 percent). (Another 25 percent say that they would "consider voting for someone else.")
The latest Time/CNN poll has a different re-elect question, but also has Bush at a post-9/11 low. In this poll, 47 percent say that they would be very likely or somewhat likely to vote for him for re-election, compared to 48 percent who say that they would be very or somewhat unlikely to vote for him. Significantly, more people say that they would be very unlikely to vote for him (38 percent) than say that they would be very likely to support him (32 percent). This poll also shows how the public?s personal bond with Bush is continuing to erode. Just 44 percent now say that he is a leader they can trust (down from 56 percent in March), compared to 54 percent who say that they have some doubts and reservations.
Note that political independents have an even more jaundiced view: only 38 percent say that they can trust him, while 61 percent have doubts. In addition, by 48 percent to 39 percent, the public thinks that Bush has been too partisan in office; by 53 percent to 43 percent, they think that he has been too quick to interject his own moral and religious beliefs into politics; by 54 percent to 44 percent, they think that he is out of touch with ordinary Americans; and by 58 percent to 37 percent, they think that he has favored policies that benefit the rich at the expense of the middle class. Hmmm. Sounds like the public?s starting to catch on.
* * *
Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll of 1,003 adults, released November 21, 2003 (conducted November 18-20, 2003)
Harris Interactive poll of 1,507 adults for Time/CNN, released November 23, 2003 (conducted November 18-19, 2003)
* * *
Healthcare Done Right? Try a Democrat
The general assumption is that passage of the bill will significantly help the Republicans by delivering a new benefit to seniors, burnishing Bush?s compassionate conservative credentials, and taking a key Democratic issue off the table. And that would be true if another, better Medicare bill had passed. It is not true of the actual bill that passed. Take the views of seniors, surely where the payoff for the GOP should be most obvious, if there is a payoff.
According to a poll last week by Peter Hart Research for the AFL-CIO, almost two-thirds of voters age 55 and older thought Congress and the White House should work for a better Medicare prescription drug plan than the one on offer. Just 19 percent wanted Congress to pass the bill under consideration. The same poll found that 65 percent of these voters viewed the drug plan unfavorably and the same number viewed the subsidies for private HMOs unfavorably. Also, 64 percent opposed the bill?s provisions to ban importation of drugs from Canada and an overwhelming 78 percent said that the bill doesn?t do enough to protect retirees now covered by employer-provided prescription drug plans. Oh, but that?s just an AFL-CIO poll, right? What can you expect from them? Perhaps it wasn?t a fair and balanced poll?
That complaint would have more credence if we didn?t have even more recent results from the University of Pennsylvania National Annenberg Election Survey. This survey found that, based on a carefully neutral description of the bill, the public as a whole opposed the bill 42 percent to 40 percent, registered voters opposed it 44 percent to 39 percent, those over age fifty opposed the bill 49 percent to 36 percent, and those over age 65 opposed it 49 percent to 33 percent. And, interestingly, those holding a favorable opinion of AARP, which of course endorsed the bill, opposed its passage 45 percent to 38 percent. So, it?s not a particularly popular bill, especially with those it?s intended to benefit directly.
Democrats are going to dwell on the shortcomings of the bill relentlessly, from failure to control drug costs to moving away from a choice-of-doctor-based Medicare system to the skimpiness of the benefit and its impact on those who already have good drug coverage. By these data, seniors already are inclined to believe much of what Democrats are going to be saying. That likely spells trouble for the GOP. Just saying it?s better than nothing won?t help them much, in Public Opinion Watch?s view. Nor will the fact that seniors won?t actually receive the benefit until 2006?and so, runs the argument, they won?t realize how bad it is until after 2004. How dumb do they think seniors are? Public Opinion Watch is betting they?ll figure this one out pretty quick?and when they do, they?ll come to the obvious conclusion: if you want health care done right, hire a Democrat.
* * *
Peter Hart Research poll of voters 55 years and older for the AFL-CIO, released November 20, 2003 (conducted November 18-19, 2003)
University of Pennsylvania poll of 860 adults for National Annenberg Election Survey, released November 24, 2003 (conducted November 19-23, 2003)
