Iraqi forces failing

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Irvine511 said:
[q]Iraq at Risk of Further Strife, Intelligence Report Warns
By Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, February 2, 2007; A01

A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.

Completion of the estimate, which projects events in Iraq over the next 18 months, comes amid intensifying debate and skepticism on Capitol Hill about the administration's war policy. In a series of contentious hearings over the past two weeks, legislators have sharply questioned Bush's new plan for the deployment of 21,500 additional U.S. troops and the administration's dependence on the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

In acid remarks yesterday to Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the departing U.S. commander in Iraq, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) noted that "things have gotten markedly and progressively worse" during Casey's 2 1/2 -year tenure, "and the situation in Iraq can now best be described as dire and deteriorating. I regret that our window of opportunity to reverse momentum may be closing." Casey was appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee on his nomination to be Army chief of staff.

Although McCain supports the additional troop deployments, he has proposed a Senate resolution including stringent benchmarks to gauge the progress of the Iraqi government and military. McCain's resolution and other nonbinding, bipartisan proposals that would express varying degrees of disapproval of Bush's plan will be debated on the Senate floor next week.

Legislators have been equally critical of the intelligence community, repeatedly recalling that most of the key judgments in the October 2002 NIE on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction were wrong. That assessment concluded that Saddam Hussein had amassed chemical and biological weapons and was "reconstituting" his nuclear weapons program. It became the foundation of the Bush administration's case -- and congressional authorization -- for invading Iraq.

"One of the sort of deeply held rumors around here is that the intelligence community gives an administration or a president what he wants by way of intelligence," Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) told Navy Vice Adm. John M. McConnell, Bush's nominee to be director of national intelligence, during McConnell's confirmation hearing yesterday.

Without directly accepting Feinstein's premise, McConnell replied that the intelligence community had learned "meaningful" lessons over the past several years and that "there's very intense focus on independence." McConnell and others made clear that the new NIE on Iraq had been subjected to extensive competitive analysis to test its conclusions.

One senior congressional aide said the NIE had been described to him as "unpleasant but very detailed." A source familiar with its language said it contained several dissents that are prominently displayed so that policymakers understand any disagreements within the intelligence community -- a significant change from the 2002 document, which listed most key dissents in small-type footnotes.[/q]


Of course, the above article skips around the most important issue currently being debated on whether or not to withdraw US troops. The new NIE had this to say about the withdrawal of coalition troops from Iraq in the next 12-18 months, the most popular time frame given by the majority of Democrats:

"Coalition capabilities, including force levels, resources, and operations, remain an essential stabilizing element in Iraq. If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this Estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation. !" If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the ISF would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution; neighboring countries—invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally—might intervene openly in the conflict; massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable; AQI would attempt to use parts of the country—particularly al-Anbar province—to plan increased attacks in and OUTSIDE of Iraq; and spiraling violence and political disarray in Iraq, along with Kurdish moves to control Kirkuk and strengthen autonomy, could prompt Turkey to launch a military incursion."

Clearly, the NIE does not advocate the premature withdrawal plans of nearly all Democrats including those running for President.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:


you're right. it's not a civil war. it's simply a war between political factions or regions within the same country.

my bad.

90% of the sectarian violence, the primary source for those claiming Iraq is in the middle of a "civil war", takes place in one city, Baghdad. Half the country, from north to south, is ethnically mixed to the point that no single ethnic group forms a majority in those areas, yet the fighting seen in Baghdad does not occur there. The US military does not regard the conflict in Iraq as a "civil war" at this time. With the definitions used by many to define Iraq as a "civil war" could also be used to define Afghanistan as a "civil war" as well.
 
The bottom line is: by removing Saddam, we have opened up the mother of all powder kegs, (ha, I wonder if history will remember it was the dictator himself who coined that phrase?) which Bush Sr. deliberately withdrew American troops from in 1991 b/c he LISTENED to wiser and more experienced heads LIKE JAMES BAKER who said that this current scenario was precisely what would happen. We upped and left, even though the whole country rose up and were ready to fall at our feet, at our service. We did it.

Of course, people will say it was easy for us to leave back then, as we had accomplished our goal. But say what you will aobut Bush Sr, he didn't lie. He told us what our real goal was and he didn't do it alone. And that's that elusive question that everyone in high places refuses to discuss, that one day they'll have to: just why are we REALLY over there anyway? What is "victory"? What is our GOAL?

The bottom line is: very few people in Iraq these days, on the street or in places of power, even at the local level, thinks of Iraq as a nation the way we think of America. Those who do have mostly fled the country and the few who remain live in a state of hiding and constant terror. And therefore we cannot help but be forced to take one side or the other in this fight. There is no middle. And one day we will have to leave. Nobody caught in the middle of a civil war will be able to stay forever, it's a given. Even if they ARE outsiders who sit on the sidelines. Which we of course are not.
 
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STING2 said:


90% of the sectarian violence, the primary source for those claiming Iraq is in the middle of a "civil war", takes place in one city, Baghdad. Half the country, from north to south, is ethnically mixed to the point that no single ethnic group forms a majority in those areas, yet the fighting seen in Baghdad does not occur there. The US military does not regard the conflict in Iraq as a "civil war" at this time. With the definitions used by many to define Iraq as a "civil war" could also be used to define Afghanistan as a "civil war" as well.


The NEI (National Intelligence Estimate)

agrees with you

not a "Civil War".

it is much worse

Is that the point you have been trying to make?

-- The term, civil war, does not "adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq,'' though it certainly applies to key conflicts taking place there, including the "hardening'' of ethno-centric identities and a "sea change in the character of the violence.''

Iraq: Worse than civil war
 
deep said:



The NEI (National Intelligence Estimate)

agrees with you

not a "Civil War".

it is much worse

Is that the point you have been trying to make?



Iraq: Worse than civil war

The report does not mention that it is worse than a "Civil War". Bosnia was a Civil War. 10% of the population was slaughtered in 4 years. There was no Bosnian government or military during that time either. It was an intense conflict between three different ethnic groups that involved the entire country. That is not anywhere near the situation in Iraq. In addition, the fundamental problems found in Iraq exist in Afghanistan as well, yet, there are NO calls for withdrawal and NO attempt to label the Afghan conflict there as a "Civil War".

Oh, on the whole issue of withdrawal, keep in mind what the NIE said about that:

"Coalition capabilities, including force levels, resources, and operations, remain an essential stabilizing element in Iraq. If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this Estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation. !" If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the ISF would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution; neighboring countries—invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally—might intervene openly in the conflict; massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable; AQI would attempt to use parts of the country—particularly al-Anbar province—to plan increased attacks in and OUTSIDE of Iraq; and spiraling violence and political disarray in Iraq, along with Kurdish moves to control Kirkuk and strengthen autonomy, could prompt Turkey to launch a military incursion."
 
STING2 said:


The report does not mention that it is worse than a "Civil War". Bosnia was a Civil War. 10% of the population was slaughtered in 4 years. There was no Bosnian government or military during that time either. It was an intense conflict between three different ethnic groups that involved the entire country. That is not anywhere near the situation in Iraq. In addition, the fundamental problems found in Iraq exist in Afghanistan as well, yet, there are NO calls for withdrawal and NO attempt to label the Afghan conflict there as a "Civil War".



[q]US intelligence admits Iraq could be 'civil war'
Email Print Normal font Large font Washington
February 4, 2007

US INTELLIGENCE has concluded that key elements of Iraq's violence have risen to the level of "civil war", in a report that the White House says justifies a troop increase and Democrats say is proof of a failed strategy.

Escalating violence between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites met the definition for a civil war but the politically charged term did not describe all the chaos in Iraq, the report said.

Reflecting the consensus views of Washington's intelligence community, the report also suggested that the President's strategy for controlling Iraqi violence must show progress within 12 to 18 months or risk further deterioration.

George Bush plans to send another 21,500 US troops to quell the violence, especially in Baghdad, as part of a joint operation with Iraqi forces. But the National Intelligence Estimate said Iraqi security forces would be hard-pressed to undertake security responsibilities or operate independently against Shiite militias.

Even if violence was reduced, the estimate warned, Iraqi leaders would still have difficulty achieving sustained political reconciliation by mid-2008.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat and 2008 presidential contender, called the report "a devastating repudiation of the President's new tactics in Iraq" and said it showed the "dire need for a political settlement".

But National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley called the estimate "a fair statement of the challenge we face in Iraq" and said the intelligence was driving policy, not vice versa.

[/q]
 
STING2 said:


Clearly, the NIE does not advocate the premature withdrawal plans of nearly all Democrats including those running for President.




firstly, most of the Republican Party disagrees with your non-strategy strategy (keep on doing the same thing), and not even George Bush agrees with your assessment of things on the ground (going well, so much accomplished, just 10 more years). in fact, the ONLY national figure who's in step with you is Cheney, and that's quite some company to keep.

but here's my real issue: you're painting the issue as Stay vs. Go. it is not so simple. advocating a change in strategy, troop redeployment, partrition, moving American troops to Kurdistan ... all of these things are most assuredly NOT a total abandonment of Iraq. they are different strategies. please, debate the pros and cons of the various options set out on the table, but don't paint them, firstly inaccurately, and secondly as all tantamount to the same thing.
after all, it was precisely this kind of poorly reasoned, rigid, ossified, incurious thinking that got us into this mess in the first place.

i'm also amazed at your dogged droning. you've been presented with ample evidence that has systematically destroyed your analysis of the situaiton -- from how Resolution 1441 functions to how the UN Security Council enforces its resolutions to the dead obvious fact that Iraq is in a Civil War -- yet you continue to repeat your positions despite overwhelming evidence and analysis and popular opinions to the contrary.

it'd be admirable, if it weren't precisely the kind of thinking that gets people killed. for no reason.
 
Given that you are in the same boat of Buchanan and Kissinger the issue of company may not be the best topic :wink:

If the situation is or is not civil war by an arbitrary definition doesn't change any of the facts - of course politics has nothing to do with facts so if it is officially a civil war then the topic can turn to the reasons that it is no longer Americas responsibility and let them die or to installing a regime that rules with an Iron fist.

The inexorable push towards sectarian strife was not a given; it was done by design with groups such as Al Qaeda in Iraq using the Sunni dissatisfaction to get a base for terrorist attacks until the Shiites would turn to the militias. It would not be completely wrong to say that the Shiite reaction of ethnic clensing is self-defence; albeit in a situation where they have the numbers.
 
Irvine511 said:





firstly, most of the Republican Party disagrees with your non-strategy strategy (keep on doing the same thing), and not even George Bush agrees with your assessment of things on the ground (going well, so much accomplished, just 10 more years). in fact, the ONLY national figure who's in step with you is Cheney, and that's quite some company to keep.

but here's my real issue: you're painting the issue as Stay vs. Go. it is not so simple. advocating a change in strategy, troop redeployment, partrition, moving American troops to Kurdistan ... all of these things are most assuredly NOT a total abandonment of Iraq. they are different strategies. please, debate the pros and cons of the various options set out on the table, but don't paint them, firstly inaccurately, and secondly as all tantamount to the same thing.
after all, it was precisely this kind of poorly reasoned, rigid, ossified, incurious thinking that got us into this mess in the first place.

i'm also amazed at your dogged droning. you've been presented with ample evidence that has systematically destroyed your analysis of the situaiton -- from how Resolution 1441 functions to how the UN Security Council enforces its resolutions to the dead obvious fact that Iraq is in a Civil War -- yet you continue to repeat your positions despite overwhelming evidence and analysis and popular opinions to the contrary.

it'd be admirable, if it weren't precisely the kind of thinking that gets people killed. for no reason.

What got 60 million people killed in a war in the early 1940s was a failure to intervene to stop a growing threat in the mid-1930s. People ignored or refused to do anything about the violations of the treaties that ended World War I. To many people believe that only intervention has risks, but history shows that not acting or intervening can result in far worse consequences for the planet.

The United States and the rest of the world have vital needs and interest in the security of the Persian Gulf. Saddam's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 resulted in the largest deployment of US troops anywhere in the world since World War II. Living with Saddam after his defeat in the Gulf War required that he change his behavior through the verifiable disarmament of all WMD, compliance with 17 UN security Council resolutions, and that the coalition succeed in keeping a full containment regime of sanctions and weapons embargo. Anything short of that would mean that his regime would have to be removed as the world could not risk another potential disaster like the one that nearly occured in August of 1990. Saddam never complied with any of the Security Council resolutions vital to the security of the region, and the containtment regime that was built crumbled and was nearly non-existent in some places by the time of the invasion in March 2003. Today, the risk and cost of not intervening at that point still far outweigh the cost and projected cost of the current conflict.

Resolution 1441 is no different in the language it uses to authorize military force than resolution 678 was which authorized the use of military force to remove Saddam's military from Kuwait as well as the use of military force to enforce all subsequent UN security council resolutions on the particular issue. The same arguements used to dispute resolution 1441 as being a resolution that authorized the coalition to use military force to enforce the resolutions could be used against resolution 678 and the removal of Saddam's military from Kuwait through military action. Whats more, the United States originally wrote resolution 678 with the words "military force" in the resolution, but took them out when the Soviet Union protested. If anything, resolution 1441 is a far more obvious authorization of military force than resolution 678 in 1990 was.

Kenneth Pollack(one of Clintons top experts on Iraq) and Michael E. O'Hanlon, two security experts who are Democrats do not find the invasion to be "illegal" as you claim it to be. There is no UN resolution or attempt at one condemning the coalition invasion, or calling for the coalition to withdraw. The "evidence" and opinions claiming that the administration illegaly invaded Iraq are rather underwhelming.

The United States military, who you continue to ignore at all cost, as well as not acknowledge their experience and accomplishments on a daily basis, have reported that based on their anylysis, Iraq is currently not in a Civil War. 90% of the sectarian violence, takes place in one city of the country, which is ethnically mixed from north to south. It should not be too difficult for those looking at the situation objectively as well as from a historical point of view, to see that Iraq at this particular time is not in a Civil War. But for politically motivated reasons, calling Iraq a Civil War has become the anthem of the Democratic Party in the hopes that if you say it enough, everyone will believe it, and then withdraw US troops under the theory that if its a Civil War, its none of the United States business, and it will be easier to rally support for a premature withdrawal. The irony is that the same people making that claim, were so ademently insistent that the United States get involved in an actual Civil War in Bosnia in the mid 1990s.


On what the United States should do next in Iraq, I support 77 of the 79 recomendations of the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group. Many of their recomendations are already being implemented by the administration before the report was even released. Continuing to support the overall nationbuilding and counterinsurgency effort in Iraq does not mean one supports the tactical mistakes that have been made. Most Republicans do not support a pre-mature withdrawal. Provided that the overall nationbuilding and counterinsurgency efforts are given the proper resources and time, Iraq will eventually have a government and military that can work through its own problems without the help of coalition ground troops.


Partition of Iraq is a strategy for Civil War and ethnic cleansing on a massive scale. Withdrawing US troops, redeploying them to the tiny northern corner in Kurdistan is virtually a NON-STRATEGY. It does nothing except to remove what the NIE says is:

"an essential stabilizing element in Iraq"

The results of which would likely be the following:


If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this Estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation. !" If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the ISF would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution; neighboring countries—invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally—might intervene openly in the conflict; massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable; AQI would attempt to use parts of the country—particularly al-Anbar province—to plan increased attacks in and OUTSIDE of Iraq; and spiraling violence and political disarray in Iraq, along with Kurdish moves to control Kirkuk and strengthen autonomy, could prompt Turkey to launch a military incursion."



The Democrats have a domestic political strategy that might work given the current political climate, for 2008, but will do NOTHING for the stability of Iraq or the security of the Persian Gulf region. It is NOT a strategy for Iraq, it is a strategy to achieve their domestic political objectives.

The Pre-mature withdrawal of coalition forces will cause the collapse of the government and military which the coalition has been working to help build for several years now. It will create an environment where Al Quada can recruit and conduct operations with little if any interference, the Civil War that everyone claims has already started.

One could support the Democrats withdrawal plans if you 1.) believe the Iraqi military is now ready to replace the vital security tasks being performed by coalition troops or 2.) Believe that Iraq's stability is of no consequence to the United States any more than say Somalia.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Iraqi forces failing

STING2 said:


There is sectarian violence in Iraq, but the US military has found that 90% of it occurs in only one area, Baghdad, despite the fact that the country is ethnically mixed from north to south.

People are dying all over Iraq

and there are less deaths in the unpopulated areas



iraq_pop.jpg




04opart-large.jpg
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Iraqi forces failing

deep said:


People are dying all over Iraq

and there are less deaths in the unpopulated areas


Yeah, you could say that about any country on the planet. Fact remains, in terms of deaths do to sectarian violence, 90% of those deaths occur in Baghdad. The death rate in Iraq is less than it was under Saddam, when occasionally Saddam would choose to slaughter say 300,000 people like he did in March 1991.
 
STING2 said:
The United States military, who you continue to ignore at all cost, as well as not acknowledge their experience and accomplishments on a daily basis, have reported that based on their anylysis, Iraq is currently not in a Civil War. 90% of the sectarian violence, takes place in one city of the country, which is ethnically mixed from north to south. It should not be too difficult for those looking at the situation objectively as well as from a historical point of view, to see that Iraq at this particular time is not in a Civil War. But for politically motivated reasons, calling Iraq a Civil War has become the anthem of the Democratic Party in the hopes that if you say it enough, everyone will believe it, and then withdraw US troops under the theory that if its a Civil War, its none of the United States business, and it will be easier to rally support for a premature withdrawal. The irony is that the same people making that claim, were so ademently insistent that the United States get involved in an actual Civil War in Bosnia in the mid 1990s.






:sigh:

[q]US intelligence admits Iraq could be 'civil war'

February 4, 2007

INTELLIGENCE has concluded that key elements of Iraq's violence have risen to the level of "civil war", in a report that the White House says justifies a troop increase and Democrats say is proof of a failed strategy.

Escalating violence between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites met the definition for a civil war but the politically charged term did not describe all the chaos in Iraq, the report said.

Reflecting the consensus views of Washington's intelligence community, the report also suggested that the President's strategy for controlling Iraqi violence must show progress within 12 to 18 months or risk further deterioration.

George Bush plans to send another 21,500 US troops to quell the violence, especially in Baghdad, as part of a joint operation with Iraqi forces. But the National Intelligence Estimate said Iraqi security forces would be hard-pressed to undertake security responsibilities or operate independently against Shiite militias.

Even if violence was reduced, the estimate warned, Iraqi leaders would still have difficulty achieving sustained political reconciliation by mid-2008.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat and 2008 presidential contender, called the report "a devastating repudiation of the President's new tactics in Iraq" and said it showed the "dire need for a political settlement".

But National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley called the estimate "a fair statement of the challenge we face in Iraq" and said the intelligence was driving policy, not vice versa.

REUTERS
[/q]
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Iraqi forces failing

STING2 said:


Yeah, you could say that about any country on the planet. Fact remains, in terms of deaths do to sectarian violence, 90% of those deaths occur in Baghdad.



if you keep repeating a fact, it becomes truthier.

the fact remains that deep has just showed you how menaingless a statistic your little 90% number is.

but keep repeating it. people who don't know anything and aren't inclined to, say, read anything might believe you.
 
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Iraqi forces failing

Irvine511 said:




if you keep repeating a fact, it becomes truthier.

the fact remains that deep has just showed you how menaingless a statistic your little 90% number is.

but keep repeating it. people who don't know anything and aren't inclined to, say, read anything might believe you.


It may be meaningless to you, but its not meaningless to people on the ground in Iraq trying to rebuild the country. In their view, Iraq is not a civil war at this time, and the facts support that conclusion. The NIE does not consider Iraq to be a Civil War. Afghanistan is fundamentally no different than Iraq in regards to this issue, yet, you won't call it a Civil War.

Over the past four years, the military has consistently reported that 13 of Iraq's 18 provinces are relatively peaceful. Opinion polls have shown that the chief concern in these 13 provinces is the lack of services, NOT, the lack of security. Without even getting in to whether the chart posted by deep is even accurate, it does not really dispute those facts.
 
Irvine511 said:






:sigh:

[q]US intelligence admits Iraq could be 'civil war'

February 4, 2007

INTELLIGENCE has concluded that key elements of Iraq's violence have risen to the level of "civil war", in a report that the White House says justifies a troop increase and Democrats say is proof of a failed strategy.

Escalating violence between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites met the definition for a civil war but the politically charged term did not describe all the chaos in Iraq, the report said.

Reflecting the consensus views of Washington's intelligence community, the report also suggested that the President's strategy for controlling Iraqi violence must show progress within 12 to 18 months or risk further deterioration.

George Bush plans to send another 21,500 US troops to quell the violence, especially in Baghdad, as part of a joint operation with Iraqi forces. But the National Intelligence Estimate said Iraqi security forces would be hard-pressed to undertake security responsibilities or operate independently against Shiite militias.

Even if violence was reduced, the estimate warned, Iraqi leaders would still have difficulty achieving sustained political reconciliation by mid-2008.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat and 2008 presidential contender, called the report "a devastating repudiation of the President's new tactics in Iraq" and said it showed the "dire need for a political settlement".

But National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley called the estimate "a fair statement of the challenge we face in Iraq" and said the intelligence was driving policy, not vice versa.

REUTERS
[/q]

You know, instead of reading what other people say about the released document, why don't you read the document yourself:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/images/02/02/nie.3.pdf


The most important thing one should be taking note of from this report is what it says about the pre-mature withdrawal the democrats so strongly support:


Coalition capabilities, including force levels, resources, and operations, remain an
essential stabilizing element in Iraq. If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during
the term of this Estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant
increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to
the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation.
!" If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the ISF would be
unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution; neighboring countries—
invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally—might intervene openly in the conflict;
massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable;
AQI would attempt to use parts of the country—particularly al-Anbar province—to
plan increased attacks in and outside of Iraq; and spiraling violence and political
disarray in Iraq, along with Kurdish moves to control Kirkuk and strengthen
autonomy, could prompt Turkey to launch a military incursion.
 
From today's Washington Post:

Nearly 2 million Iraqis -- about 8 percent of the prewar population -- have embarked on a desperate migration, mostly to Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees. The refugees include large numbers of doctors, academics and other professionals vital for Iraq's recovery. Another 1.7 million have been forced to move to safer towns and villages inside Iraq, and as many as 50,000 Iraqis a month flee their homes, the U.N. agency said in January.
 
If there aren't going to be any Sunnis in Iraq in a decade is there an obligation to make sure that they are living in surrounding countries rather than dead in Iraq?
 
STING2 said:


You know, instead of reading what other people say about the released document, why don't you read the document yourself:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/images/02/02/nie.3.pdf


The most important thing one should be taking note of from this report is what it says about the pre-mature withdrawal the democrats so strongly support:




you know what kiddo? i have read the document, and all you can do is pull out the ONLY piece of the NIE that agrees with you -- you dont't want a total withrawal. well guess what? neither does anyone else. what people DO what is to do something differnetly because what you've been advocating is not working. it's not. there's no two ways about it. end of story. and the NIE details the myriad failures and rapidly deteriorating situation (but why would you read that part of the document?)

if all you've got left is arguing over the semantics of what is and what is not a Civil War, and the continuous comparisons to Bosnia as evidence of some sort of victory or validation or vindication ... then you're truly fucked. you can't find anyone, aside from Cheney, who supports what you think needs to be done. the NIE certainly doesn't agree with your assessment of either the situation on the ground or with what needs to be done. you're pulling out a document that has a single point of agreement with you, and a total backhand to everything else you've been advocating it, and then trying to spin the NIE as some sort of supporting piece of evidence?

good luck.

Democrats support total withdrawal? yes, continue to ignore the Republicans -- including MCCAIN -- who support a redeployment, an altering of strategy, especially if this little "surge" doesn't work.

you know what i just learned? during the American Civil War, there was no violence in Boston! or in New York! there was no violence in Philadelphia! therefore, there was no Civil War from 1861-1865!!! the vast majority of American citizens at the time weren't concerned with being murdered by marauding bands of southerners who would routinely round people up, drill holes in their eyes, shoot them in the head, and then dump them in the Potomac! there was NO CIVIL WAR because 10% of the population of the US wasn't massacred, like in Bosnia, the only true civil war.
 
Irvine511 said:




you know what kiddo? i have read the document, and all you can do is pull out the ONLY piece of the NIE that agrees with you -- you dont't want a total withrawal. well guess what? neither does anyone else. what people DO what is to do something differnetly because what you've been advocating is not working. it's not. there's no two ways about it. end of story. and the NIE details the myriad failures and rapidly deteriorating situation (but why would you read that part of the document?)

if all you've got left is arguing over the semantics of what is and what is not a Civil War, and the continuous comparisons to Bosnia as evidence of some sort of victory or validation or vindication ... then you're truly fucked. you can't find anyone, aside from Cheney, who supports what you think needs to be done. the NIE certainly doesn't agree with your assessment of either the situation on the ground or with what needs to be done. you're pulling out a document that has a single point of agreement with you, and a total backhand to everything else you've been advocating it, and then trying to spin the NIE as some sort of supporting piece of evidence?

good luck.

Democrats support total withdrawal? yes, continue to ignore the Republicans -- including MCCAIN -- who support a redeployment, an altering of strategy, especially if this little "surge" doesn't work.

you know what i just learned? during the American Civil War, there was no violence in Boston! or in New York! there was no violence in Philadelphia! therefore, there was no Civil War from 1861-1865!!! the vast majority of American citizens at the time weren't concerned with being murdered by marauding bands of southerners who would routinely round people up, drill holes in their eyes, shoot them in the head, and then dump them in the Potomac! there was NO CIVIL WAR because 10% of the population of the US wasn't massacred, like in Bosnia, the only true civil war.


I pulled out the part of the document that is most relevant to the debate about what the coalition should be doing next in Iraq. The Democrats want to withdraw what the NIE has refered to as:

"an essential stabilizing element in Iraq."

Why would you totally or even partially withdraw what is "an essential stabilizing element in Iraq", especially considering the consequences of such a withdrawal?

Coalition forces perform vital security task in the country on a daily basis. Which coalition forces would you withdraw and why? Who would replace them in carrying out the vital tasks they perform everyday? Do you now believe the situation has improved to the point that the tasks they currently perform are no longer needed?

These are very basic questions that any advocate of withdrawal should at least try and answer. Many Democrats are advocating a total pull out of US forces within 6 months, the Murtha plan, so your statement that no one wants a "total withdrawal" is totally false. Nearly all Democrats, including those running for President want the United States to pull out ALL of its Combat Brigades within the 12-18 months of the time frame of the NIE estimate. Given the vital role such combat brigades play in stabilizing the situation on the ground, as well as the consequences listed of what would happen if they were withdrawn within the time period for the estimate, the NIE considers nearly all of the proposals by most Democrats and their candidates for 08 to be a mistake.

Withdrawal is not an alternative strategy to stabilize Iraq. It is an action that will destabilize Iraq and create the Civil War so many are obsessed with in describing the situation in Iraq.

General David Petraus, General John Abazaid, General Casey, as well all divisional commanders in Iraq, OPPOSE the premature withdrawal plans of Democrats especially the candidates for 08. During congressional testimony in November, General John Abazaid effectively rebutted Senator Clintons assessment of the situation as well as what needed to be done next.

John McCain just recently stated he was against the pre-mature withdrawal of coalition troops from Iraq saying it would be a mistake to start withdrawing troops before their mission has been completed. He also added, that none of the generals and security experts in and outside government that he had discussions with, believe it is wise to prematurely withdraw coalition troops. Again, why would you even consider partially withdrawing what the NIE says is "an essential stabilizing element in Iraq?"

If you really read what the NIE says, you would realize they do not support any form of withdrawal at all for the next 12-18 months at least! I actually find little if anything that I disagree with the NIE about. The report discusses many of the problems I have brought up in the past, and does not call the overall conflict a "Civil War" as you and others do. It makes me wonder if you really understand my position on the conflict. It mentions that there is the potential for a more stable environment in Iraq, but it will require more time than the estimate is for, 12-18 months. But your not going to get to that point if you follow what the Democrats would like to do and withdraw all or nearly all US combat Brigades from Iraq in the next 12-18 months.



The reason that you did not see much of the communal violence that is seen in Baghdad during the Civil War in the United States was because the country was already very well divided with the exception of a few states between those that were for one side or the other. The opposing populations were seperated by hundreds of miles in an era when the horse was the main means of transportation. Iraq by contrast is ethnically mixed from north to south, but is experiencing 90% of its sectarian violence in one city because of the actions of a particular shia militia, certain insurgent groups, and Al Quada. All of the provinces as well as all of the various blocks of the government have remained apart of the country, which is not the case in a Civil War. Nearly 3% of the US population died during the US civil war.
 
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[q]Soldiers in Iraq view troop surge as a lost cause

By Tom Lasseter
McClatchy Newspapers

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Army 1st Lt. Antonio Hardy took a slow look around the east Baghdad neighborhood that he and his men were patrolling. He grimaced at the sound of gunshots in the distance. A machine gunner on top of a Humvee scanned the rooftops for snipers. Some of Hardy's men wondered aloud if they'd get hit by a roadside bomb on the way back to their base.

"To be honest, it's going to be like this for a long time to come, no matter what we do," said Hardy, 25, of Atlanta. "I think some people in America don't want to know about all this violence, about all the killings. The people back home are shielded from it; they get it sugar-coated."

While senior military officials and the Bush administration say the president's decision to send more American troops to pacify Baghdad will succeed, many of the soldiers who're already there say it's a lost cause.

"What is victory supposed to look like? Every time we turn around and go in a new area there's somebody new waiting to kill us," said Sgt. 1st Class Herbert Gill, 29, of Pulaski, Tenn., as his Humvee rumbled down a dark Baghdad highway one evening last week. "Sunnis and Shiites have been fighting for thousands of years, and we're not going to change that overnight."

"Once more raids start happening, they'll (insurgents) melt away," said Gill, who serves with the 1st Infantry Division in east Baghdad. "And then two or three months later, when we leave and say it was a success, they'll come back."

Soldiers interviewed across east Baghdad, home to more than half the city's 8 million people, said the violence is so out of control that while a surge of 21,500 more American troops may momentarily suppress it, the notion that U.S. forces can bring lasting security to Iraq is misguided.

Lt. Hardy and his men of the 2nd Brigade of the Army's 2nd Infantry Division, from Fort Carson, Colo., patrol an area southeast of Sadr City, the stronghold of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

A map in Hardy's company headquarters charts at least 50 roadside bombs since late October, and the lieutenant recently watched in horror as the blast from one killed his Humvee's driver and wounded two other soldiers in a spray of blood and shrapnel.

Soldiers such as Hardy must contend not only with an escalating civil war between Iraq's Sunni and Shiite Muslims, but also with insurgents on both sides who target U.S. forces.

"We can go get into a firefight and empty out ammo, but it doesn't accomplish much," said Pvt. 1st Class Zach Clouser, 19, of York, Pa. "This isn't our war - we're just in the middle."

Almost every foot soldier interviewed during a week of patrols on the streets and alleys of east Baghdad said that Bush's plan would halt the bloodshed only temporarily. The soldiers cited a variety of reasons, including incompetence or corruption among Iraqi troops, the complexities of Iraq's sectarian violence and the lack of Iraqi public support, a cornerstone of counterinsurgency warfare.

"They can keep sending more and more troops over here, but until the people here start working with us, it's not going to change," said Sgt. Chance Oswalt, 22, of Tulsa, Okla.

Bush's initiative calls for American soldiers in Baghdad to take positions in outposts throughout the capital, paired up with Iraqi police and soldiers. Few of the U.S. soldiers interviewed, however, said they think Iraqi forces can operate effectively without American help.

Their officers were more optimistic.

If there's enough progress during the next four to six months, "we can look at doing provincial Iraqi control, and we can move U.S. forces to the edge of the city," said Lt. Col. Dean Dunham, the deputy commander of the 2nd Infantry Division's 2nd Brigade, which oversees most of east Baghdad.

Maj. Christopher Wendland, a senior staff officer for Dunham's brigade, said he thinks there's a good chance that by late 2007 American troops will have handed over most of Baghdad to Iraqi troops.

"I'm actually really positive," said Wendland, 35, of Chicago. "We have an Iraqi army that's actually capable of maintaining once we leave."

If the Iraqi army can control the violence, his thinking goes, economic and political progress will follow in the safest areas, accompanied by infrastructure improvement, then spread outward.

In counterinsurgency circles, that notion is commonly called the "inkblot" approach. It's been relatively successful in some isolated parts of Iraq, such as Tal Afar on the Syrian border, but in most areas it's failed to halt the bloodshed for any length of time.[/q]



most interesting point: the pro-war media bias.

the American public is shielded from the realities of the violence.
 
U.S. military: Iraqi lawmaker is U.S. Embassy bomber

Story Highlights
• Iraqi Parliament member convicted of bombing U.S., French embassies in '83
• Jamal Jafaar Mohammed's position gives him prosecutorial immunity
• He supports Shiite insurgents and acts as an Iranian agent in Iraq, D.C. says
• Mohammed is also accused of attempting to kill a Kuwaiti prince

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- A man sentenced to death in Kuwait for the 1983 bombings of the U.S. and French embassies now sits in Iraq's parliament as a member of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's ruling coalition, according to U.S. military intelligence.

Jamal Jafaar Mohammed's seat in parliament gives him immunity from prosecution. Washington says he supports Shiite insurgents and acts as an Iranian agent in Iraq.


Repeated efforts by CNN to reach Jamal Jafaar Mohammed for comment through the parliament, through the ruling Shiite Muslim coalition and the Badr Organization -- the Iranian-backed paramilitary organization he once led -- have been unsuccessful.

A Kuwaiti court sentenced Jamal Jafaar Mohammed to death in 1984 in the car bombings of the U.S. and French embassies the previous December. Five people died in the attacks and 86 were wounded.

He had fled the country before the trial.

Western intelligence agencies also accuse Jamal Jafaar Mohammed of involvement in the hijacking of a Kuwaiti airliner in 1984 and the attempted assassination of a Kuwaiti prince.

Jamal Jafaar Mohammed won a seat in Iraq's Council of Representatives in the U.S.-backed elections of December 2005. He represents Babil province, south of Baghdad, in parliament.

Al-Maliki has urged American intelligence officials to share their information with Iraqi lawmakers.


Al-Maliki's political party, Dawa, claimed responsibility for the Kuwait bombings at the time but now disavows them. The Iranian-backed Shiite Muslim party was forced into exile under former dictator Saddam Hussein, who was executed in December.

The Iraqi Government is dealing and will deal with Iran.

Al-Maliki is their man.

surge the troops and let's
whack the Sunni's a bit more
before Iran gets all the spoils
 
Have your cake and eat it too; at fault for both hurting and helping Irans proxies
A growing number of Iraqis blamed the United States on Sunday for creating conditions that led to the worst single suicide bombing in the war, which devastated a Shiite market in Baghdad the day before. They argued that slowness in completing the vaunted new American security plan has made Shiite neighborhoods much more vulnerable to such horrific attacks.

The chorus of critics said the new plan, which the Americans have barely started to execute, has emasculated the Mahdi Army, the Shiite militia that is considered responsible for many attacks on Sunnis, but which many Shiites say had been the only effective deterrent against sectarian reprisal attacks in Baghdad’s Shiite neighborhoods. Even some Iraqi supporters of the plan, such as Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi foreign minister who is a Kurd, said delays in implementing it have caused great disappointment.
link
 
Seven killed in CH-46 Sea Knight helicopter crash in Iraq


By Joseph Giordono, Stars and Stripes
Mideast edition, Thursday, February 8, 2007

Seven people were killed when a Marine Corps CH-46 Sea Knight went down early Wednesday northwest of Baghdad, the U.S. military said. It’s the fifth American helicopter to crash in Iraq since Jan. 20.

While the previous three military helicopters — plus one belonging to a private security contracting firm — were shot down, a senior U.S. defense official said the CH-46 helicopter did not appear to have been hit by hostile fire.

However, an Iraqi air force officer said it was downed by an anti-aircraft missile and an al-Qaida-linked Sunni group claimed responsibility for the downing..
 
The right message
Feb. 13, 2007 — The story tonight in Iraq is not the arrival of more U.S. troops, but the departure of one of the country’s most powerful men, Moqtada al Sadr and members of his army.

According to senior military officials al Sadr left Baghdad two to three weeks ago, and fled to Tehran, Iran, where he has family.

Al Sadr commands the Mahdi Army, one of the most formidable insurgent militias in Iraq, and his move coincides with the announced U.S. troop surge in Baghdad.

Sources believe al Sadr is worried about an increase of 20,000 U.S. troops in the Iraqi capital. One official told ABC News’ Martha Raddatz, “He is scared he will get a JDAM [bomb] dropped on his house.”

Sources say some of the Mahdi army leadership went with al Sadr.

Though he is gone for now, many think al Sadr is not gone for good. In Tehran he is trying to keep the Madhi militia together.
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/IraqCoverage/story?id=2872953
 
I heard a GI on the news the other night who had the perfect answer. He said what was happening there was a Civil War, and that everyone has a civil war, we (US) had one, and that everyone has to fight it out for themselves- without intervention from other countries. He said the US should come home now.

The argument that we owe it to the dead to fight on is crazy. How many more dead do you want us to end up oweing something to? I bet most of the dead would want to save their friends and let them get out.
 
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