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Old 09-27-2006, 09:33 AM   #1
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Iraq has made us less safe, end of story

the Iraq War has endangered the US (and everyone else):

[q]Sobering Conclusions On Why Jihad Has Spread

By Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 27, 2006; A21

In announcing yesterday that he would release the key judgments of a controversial National Intelligence Estimate, President Bush said he agreed with the document's conclusion "that because of our successes against the leadership of al-Qaeda, the enemy is becoming more diffuse and independent."

But the estimate itself posits no such cause and effect. Instead, while it notes that counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged and disrupted al-Qaeda's leadership, it describes the spreading "global jihadist movement" as fueled largely by forces that al-Qaeda exploits but is not actively directing. They include Iraq, corrupt and unjust governments in Muslim-majority countries, and "pervasive anti-U.S. sentiment among most Muslims."

The overall estimate is bleak, with minor notes of optimism. It depicts a movement that is likely to grow more quickly than the West's ability to counter it over the next five years, as the Iraq war continues to breed "deep resentment" throughout the Muslim world, shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and cultivating new supporters for their ideology.

In describing Iraq as "the 'cause celebre' for jihadists," the document judges that real and perceived insurgent successes there will "inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere," while losses would have the opposite effect. It predicts that the elimination of al-Qaeda leaders, particularly Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed after the estimate was completed in April, would probably leave that organization splintered into disparate groups that "for at least a time, pose a less serious threat to U.S. interests" than the current al-Qaeda structure.

On the relative bright side, the assessment notes the unpopularity with "the vast majority of Muslims" of the jihadists' brutal tactics and ultraconservative ideology. Democratic reforms and peaceful political alternatives in Muslim countries will also counter terrorist aims, it says.

But "the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this estimate," the report notes. An intelligence official who was not authorized to speak on the record said the time frame is until early 2011.

[/q]
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Old 09-27-2006, 09:48 AM   #2
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Isn't this what many people around the world including posters on this board have been saying for years? Everyone agrees that it would be wonderful for terrorism to be defeated but everyone doesn't agree on the methods used to by the Bush administration on the so-called GWOT. Actually, Bush has been Bin Laden's patsy, he has done exactly what Al Qaeda wanted. Bin Laden wanted the US to get bogged down in a long struggle in Afghanistan which would drain the resources of the US and weaken the country. Of course, this didn't happen so Bush had to keep going and open the Iraq can of worms. Bin Laden has changed his arguments for fighting the US as the situations around the Middle East have changed too like any other politician. He has to change the agenda to fit the situation, eeriily similar to Bush continuing to change the rational for the war in Iraq and it's goals.

I do agree with the last paragraph about how the " vast majority of Muslims" refute the tactics and ultraconservative ideology of the extremists. Terrorism will disappear when extremism loses its passive support within it's own society, the West cannot end terrorism through force. If anything the appearance of US forces in a Muslim nation just gives more fuel for extremists to draw disenfranchised and angry moderates to their fold.

Unfortunately, revenge killings and death squads leading to a possible full-scale civil war on the streets is the main problem in Iraq right now. Well, I guess it is pretty much a civil war right now. But it just makes a complex problem even worse. Abandoning Afghanistan to head to Iraq is probably one of the dumbest moves in military history. It's like a fireman walking away from a fire while the debris is still smoking with burning embers, it could, and this case did, flare up at any moment. Now there are two fires. In any case, it's a huge mess no matter how you look at it.
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Old 09-27-2006, 10:11 AM   #3
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it also destroys the whole, "we fight them there so we don't have to fight them here" nonsense.
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Old 09-27-2006, 10:22 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally posted by trevster2k
Isn't this what many people around the world including posters on this board have been saying for years?
That's national intelligence for you.
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Old 09-27-2006, 10:39 AM   #5
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double post
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Old 09-27-2006, 11:50 AM   #6
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We are safer without saddam but the bush lead war on terror has been gone about in the wrong way.

Diplomacy is the only way to end the war in Iraq , not troops on the ground.
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Old 09-27-2006, 11:54 AM   #7
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this does beg the question: what do we do next?

and there needs to be more than schadenfreude on the parts of Democrats, and all those around the world who opposed iraq from the beginning.

though, given all the dick swinging and flag waving and flight suit stuffing that went on in 2003 by the administration, at least a little Schadenfreude is understandable.

but what do we do?

i'm thinking the three state solution might be the only way out.
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Old 09-27-2006, 12:05 PM   #8
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Some people want the three state solution, and some don't. Turkey doesn't want a Kurdish state on its borders. Basra and its area are a natural choice for part of a three state solution. It's heavily Shia. Then there's the Kurdish region. It's Sunni Muslim. Then there's the western part of the country.
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Old 09-27-2006, 12:21 PM   #9
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Iraq will be split up like India.
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Old 09-27-2006, 12:53 PM   #10
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Like India? Wow.
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Old 09-27-2006, 01:05 PM   #11
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Originally posted by vaz02
Iraq will be split up like India.
You mean like India and Pakistan were split up in 1947?

As for the topic at hand, of course Iraq has made us less safe! If the total idiot of a president hadn't gone and attacked the wrong people as revenge for 9-11, there wouldn't be so much anti-american sentiment in the world right now. What a disgrace! Anyway, what can we do sitting here? Nothing.
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Old 09-27-2006, 01:19 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by Zootlesque


You mean like India and Pakistan were split up in 1947?

Yeah as well as Bangladesh 1971
This seems the only sensible solution , all factions get a slice of the pie, however who would get what region and who would get the oil.
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Old 09-27-2006, 01:39 PM   #13
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The NIE seems to say that fighting them has pissed them off, and that 5 years of democracy building will divide the support for Islamists and that if the Jihadists are defeated in Iraq it will seriously damage the appeal and recruiting power- you can read the whole document here, http://dni.gov/press_releases/Declas..._Judgments.pdf
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Old 09-27-2006, 01:46 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
The NIE seems to say that fighting them has pissed them off, and that 5 years of democracy building will divide the support for Islamists and that if the Jihadists are defeated in Iraq it will seriously damage the appeal and recruiting power- you can read the whole document here, http://dni.gov/press_releases/Declas..._Judgments.pdf
Not surprisingly - especially for an election year - the Democrats skipped the beginning and cherry-picked the bits that supported their "peace-making" cause for political gain.
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Old 09-27-2006, 01:59 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by Zootlesque


You mean like India and Pakistan were split up in 1947?

As for the topic at hand, of course Iraq has made us less safe! If the total idiot of a president hadn't gone and attacked the wrong people as revenge for 9-11, there wouldn't be so much anti-american sentiment in the world right now. What a disgrace! Anyway, what can we do sitting here? Nothing.
We went after the terrorists who were responsible for planning the events of 9/11, and we also went after those who harbor terrorists to pull out the roots of Islamic terrorism. As a result, the inevitable Jihad that was declared on 9/11 is being fought in the Middle East, rather than New York City.
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