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Old 03-30-2007, 07:49 PM   #61
Rock n' Roll Doggie
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Originally posted by deep

what is your point?

If a Shiite Iraqi government were in league with Iran
and they controlled the oil, what would they do with it?

The oil just gets put on the world market.

The price would probably come down.

Is Chavez impacting the oil market?

He controls quite a bit
and is probably more anti-Bush than Iran?

When an oil tanker sails across the Atlantic
ownership of the oil contained therein, changes ownership about 300 times.
Chavez does not have the oil reserves to impact the global market in the way that Saudi Arabia or for that matter the entire Persian Gulf does.

Iraqi oil industry came on hard times in the early 1980s and has yet to recover and has never played the role or had the impact on the global market that it potentially could have and probably will not for some time even under the best of circumstances. The concern is about Kuwait and Saudi Arabia's reserves of oil and how a new Iraqi dictatorship that was hostile to those countries could threaten that supply. The seizure and sabotage of much or most of Persian Gulf Oil Supply would lead to a global economic depression worse than the 1930s with many serious incaculable consequences for the entire planet.

The presumption that the oil would get to market regardless of who controls it is actually naive in light of what Saddam did with his own oil, and would never be the basis for security policy considering how serious and devestating the impacts could be. Saddam turned off the pumps for years in the early 1990s but Iraqi oil had not been playing a big role in the market so the impact was very small. But turning of the pumps in Saudi Arabia for years today would destroy the global economy and for that matter, the planet. Why would anyone put their way of life, economy, in the hands of someone like Saddam or Al Quada? Giving any hostile regime or element the the ability to destroy or control the global economy and for that matter, the planets way of life, is not an option.

Less of a threat of course are temporary supply disruptions in parts of the region, caused by conflicts, that could raise oil prices and if serious enough could cause a recession that could take several years to recover from.

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Old 03-30-2007, 07:54 PM   #62
Rock n' Roll Doggie
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Originally posted by trevster2k

Which it will because not selling the oil would be stupid.
Yeah well, Saddam, Al Quada and those that share their views and caculations on things have no problem doing that. Saddam stopped selling his own oil on the world market for years. Not a big deal then considering the size and state of the Iraqi oil industry at the time and how Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and others were able to cover that small amount of production, but if a hostile entity were able to turn off the pumps in Saudi Arabia and other gulf states for years, the planet would return to the stone age.

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