Iowa Predictions

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Dreadsox

ONE love, blood, life
Joined
Aug 24, 2002
Messages
10,885
Dem - Obama (thank you Deenis K. for telling your supporters to back Obama)

Rep - Huckabee
 
I'm actually kind of excited about this year's presidential campaign! I've been pretty curious about how Iowa is going to turn out.

I hope you're right about Obama.
 
I think Obama takes it. I'd like to see Edwards end up in the #2 slot in front of Hillary.

Huckabee for the other side. Mitt will get so mad a strand of hair will go out of place.
 
Dems:
Obama pulls it off
Edwards stuns Clinton and is #2
all are within 5% of each other

Reps:
Huckabee narrowly beats Romney
 
tom-cruise-crazy-on-oprah.jpg


Obama! Obama! Obama!
 
The latest poll from Zogby 12/29 - 01/01 has the following results for the Democrats:

Clinton 28%
Obama 28%
Edwards 26%
Richardson 7%
Biden 4%


In New Hampshire, the latest poll there has Clinton ahead of Obama by a staggering 17 points. If that poll is accurate, Iowa may not matter. Clinton still has the lead in every state based on the latest polls except for Iowa where she is tied. Obama might win Iowa, but with the state primaries so close together, Obama may not have the time to exploit a victory in Iowa.
 
Despite my prediction of Romney and Obama winning Iowa (which I stand by), here's hoping for Huckabee and Clinton victories.
 
The nation's eyes may be on them and the candidates may be beating on their doors, but most Iowans will go nowhere near the 1,781 schools, churches and auditoriums where their fellow citizens will cast the first judgment of the 2008 presidential campaign.

While California and other states wage war for the kind of candidate attention and media hype afforded this state every four years, at least 1.7 million of some 2 million eligible Iowa voters will sit out Thursday's caucuses. As usual, they will leave the decision to a contingent of political activists who are mostly older, whiter and more highly educated than the rest of the nation.

The reasons that most Iowans stay away range from the practical to the philosophical to the emotional. They can't get away from jobs or responsibilities at home. They don't like politics. They don't believe their vote will make a difference. They feel oppressed by the ceaseless phone calls and television ads.

Unlike primary voters in other states, who can vote by mail or drop by a polling place for a few minutes, Iowa caucus-goers must commit to several hours of political dialogue on a work night, sometimes far from home.

Even if they want to contend with snow and icy roads, some just can't get away.

Karla Hobbs, a dispatcher for the Ames Police Department and an undecided Democrat, was eagerly anticipating the hustle of the caucus, but can't leave her post before the 7 p.m. caucus start time, particularly with staff stretched thin for the holidays.

"I'm disappointed," said the 46-year-old Ames resident. "I feel left out."


at least 1.7 million of some 2 million eligible Iowa voters will sit out Thursday's caucuses

300,000 ?

only 15% of those eligible - will determine the winners?


I can see why Iowa really does not matter, much of the time

we have a real quick primary season this year
with a great deal of the delegates determined as soon as Feb 5

I see no reason for any of the candidates to drop out before then

also, there may be some advantage for staying in

a lesser candidate with only 10% of the delegates
could wield a lot of power at the nominating convention.
 
I am unfortunate enough to live in Iowa.

I have been called every day for the last 2 weeks by the Obama campagin to get me to caucus for him and 3 people from the campaign have come to my door in that time:crack: one time i was on the phone with one of them when another one came to the door.:eek:

the weirdest thing is I haven't had calls from any other campaign...
 
the rockin edge said:
i was actually wondering how Obama got my phone number and address. ive never given any campaign any information on me.

It's called "data mining" and "shared phone lists", and it's amazing that the same organizations that are so indignant about George Bush disregarding the privacy of American citizens -- groups like the DNC or the ACLU -- can then justify themselves gathering or buying information about potential voters, members or donors.
 
INDY500 said:


It's called "data mining" and "shared phone lists", and it's amazing that the same organizations that are so indignant about George Bush disregarding the privacy of American citizens -- groups like the DNC or the ACLU -- can then justify themselves gathering or buying information about potential voters, members or donors.

:lol: Yeah, someone buying public information and someone listening to my private phone calls is so similar, what are those communist bastards in the ACLU thinking?
 
INDY500 said:


It's called "data mining" and "shared phone lists", and it's amazing that the same organizations that are so indignant about George Bush disregarding the privacy of American citizens -- groups like the DNC or the ACLU -- can then justify themselves gathering or buying information about potential voters, members or donors.



:up:

you never disappoint. :wink:
 
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