Iowa Predictions

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i do wonder if Romney isn't going to start swinging way, way to the right to shore up the conservatives who loathe McCain.

and Mexicans are going to be Mitt's big old pinata.

but, yeah, the story tonight is Huck. karma's a bitch, isn't it GOPers? you say religion matters, and you get a candidate who has NOTHING but his religion. at least Bush knows he's an idiot. with Huck, i'm not so sure.
 
coemgen said:
It's not looking good for Hillary. Fighting for second place with Edwards.

Easy there. Even if she finishes third, mere percentage points behind Edwards, it doesn't mean anything yet.

Now if Obama beats her here in NH as well, then I think she's in major trouble.
 
And it isn't true that Huckabee will win nothing else.

I can see him moving out to South Carolina and singing gospel songs with his guitar. He can absolutely take that state.
 
Diemen said:



I really hope McCain gets the Republican nomination. It would be a more honest race that way. He's by far the most qualified out of any of the Republicans, and pretty much the only one I respect out of the bunch (save his shameless kiss-assery of the far right).

And if McCain were to become President, I wouldn't have to kill myself or move to Canada.

It just keeps getting more interesting.
 
phanan said:


Easy there. Even if she finishes third, mere percentage points behind Edwards, it doesn't mean anything yet.

Now if Obama beats her here in NH as well, then I think she's in major trouble.

I agree about New Hampshire, but I think this really damages her. She was supposed to be the inevitable choice. Now she's third. This will slow down momentum in New Hampshire.
 
CNN is projecting a 37 % victory for Obama. I couldn't be happier with that result. I'm fully on board with him at this point.

Edwards and Clinton are now predicted to be tied with 30% It will be interesting to see how this turns out.

Huckabee is projected as the winner on the Republican side with 34%. Romney is in second with 25%. The biggest surprise for me is Thompson coming in third with 14%. That's a bit scary.

A poll taken by caucus goers that may have lead to Obama's likely victory is his message of change. 51% of them said change is what they're looking for over experience. If only more Americans could adopt this attitude, I think we'd be in a better place. I am surprised but extremely pleased with Obama's win. I am not too surprised with Huckabee's, and I am a bit relieved. I believe he's the lesser of all evils in the Republican field, so to speak. Any surprises for you so far?
 
anitram said:




Obama is after the independents the same way. Except he's younger, better looking, has LOADS more money and is able to get young people and first time voters out to the polls in absolutely astonishing numbers.


Obama vs. McCain would be much closer than Hillary vs. McCain, definitely. There's just no comparison between the two men's records, though. I have more faith in America that they'll vote for the better man rather than that young, handsome one.

McCain vs. Hillary is the dream matchup for me, no question.

ETA: Actually, I'm not so sure. According to presidentelectionpolls.com McCain beats Obama 340-171, and Hillary 300-222.

Who knows. :shrug:
 
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I think Obama will take NH. They are close there, and the bounce will be enough. If he does so, I think you can pretty much stick a fork in Hillary.

McCain is praying for Hillary. Obama beats all of McCain, Romney and Giuliani in the national polls.
 
2861U2 said:

I have more faith in America that they'll vote for the better man rather than that young, handsome one.

I had more faith in America too, and then they voted for the idiot in chief twice.
 
I'm more cautious in predicting NH, as I live here and know how things have gone in the past. We are a most unpredictable bunch. :wink:

I seem to recall the same thing happening back in 1992 with another Clinton. And while I'm not comparing her to her husband at all, I'm not ruling her out, either.
 
I'd like to see demographic breakdown by age and gender - think I saw Obama does better with those under 30.
 
coemgen said:


Yeah, Clinton was supposedly a favorite of those 65 and older.

I would credit that to her healthcare plan. I actually am a supporter of it too, but I don't think she has the ability to help push this nation in a new direction. She's definitely my second choice, but Obama's plans and vision overall have the ability to lead this country back to its' ideals.
 
Irvine511 said:
and Iowa is 95% white. and they voted for a black man.

amazing.
Richardson is white, but claims brown

and Kucinich is white

remove their people that seconded over to Obama and most likely Obama would be in 3rd

No 2nd choices in general election

ask Gore about 2000 Nader votes
 
U2isthebest said:


I would credit that to her healthcare plan. I actually am a supporter of it too, but I don't think she has the ability to help push this nation in a new direction. She's definitely my second choice, but Obama's plans and vision overall have the ability to lead this country back to its' ideals.

I think that's part of it, but I wonder how much color of skin has to do with it in this demographic?
 
anitram said:
I think Obama will take NH. They are close there, and the bounce will be enough. If he does so, I think you can pretty much stick a fork in Hillary.

McCain is praying for Hillary. Obama beats all of McCain, Romney and Giuliani in the national polls.

There has not been much polling on Obama vs. McCain, but the latest poll by Fox News has McCain up by 4 points over Obama. In fact, all the latest polls matching McCain against ANY of the Democrats have McCain winning. But, will see how Iowa tonight and New Hampshire next week impact things.
 
BonoVoxSupastar said:


I think that's part of it, but I wonder how much color of skin has to do with it in this demographic?


That is a good point. I posted that before I looked at ntalwar's post of the demographic breakdown. According to that Obama's support goes down with each older age group.
 
McCain will probably get all of grandpa Fred's voters too, once he drops out (tomorrow? Saturday?).
 
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