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Old 01-04-2008, 04:43 PM   #331
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Originally posted by coemgen
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...Most astounding however, [Obama] beat [Hillary] among her core supporters, women, by five points. What more can I say than — in a night of mind boggling statistics — that that’s the stat of the night.

A black man did this. In a state that’s 96 percent white. This is truly a historic night in America.
A lot of pundits seem to be exclaiming this today, and frankly I'm surprised at their surprise. I doubt that Hillary ever had the white female Democratic vote (which seems to be what they're talking about) securely locked up. As long as she looked consistently well ahead of Obama in the polls, then yeah, that constituency was leaning towards her--she seemed to have the savviest machine behind her, and while not anyone's idea of a thrilling candidate, she'd amassed a fair amount of props for projecting knowledgeability, competence and experience. But at the same time, we've been hearing and over and over for months now that "she's just not electable," and as Obama's campaign picked up steam in recent weeks and the base took note of the fact that he seemed to be increasingly appealing to independents, I think a lot of women who'd previously tagged him as "seriously compelling, but too far behind in the polls" started thinking Hey, maybe he can pull it off, and decided to go for it and vote for him. Also, to the extent that this what-a-shocker! analysis appears(?) to assume that race trumps gender when it comes to what voters are hungering for in a Presidential nominee, I disagree with that; I really think the reverse tends to be true.
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Romney lost big with Evangelicals. Did his Mormon faith hurt him?
I tend to think that what hurt him in Iowa had less to do with what's "wrong" with him in the base's eyes, than what proved to be irresistible about Huckabee. Even if Romney were, say, Catholic, which (I presume) would in theory be less potentially offputting--still, c'mon, he's going head-to-head with a Southern Baptist minister who's also got that requisite humble-background,-down-home-friendly,-charmingly-witty-yet-earnest act down pat. While I personally wanted to gag while watching Huckabee's speech last night, which to me came across as if he were delivering assorted readings from one of those schmaltzy 'Daily Inspirational Meditations' books, I think it illustrated nicely why he's so compelling to many in that segment of the electorate. I agree with the general consensus that Huckabee will probably have a tough time of it in states where evangelical conservatives play a less critical role in the Republican vote, but I think he'll likely clean up big in much of the South and Midwest.



I'll second (or was that third?) whomever was enthusing that Obama-Edwards would make a fantastic ticket. While Obama definitely confirmed his reputation as the Dems' best orator last night, I did share joyfulgirl's admiration for Edwards' speech--to me it's always refreshing when a candidate skips the gushy platitude-slinging and cuts right to the platform points, and he did just that.

There's a long way to go yet though, and still plenty of room for the present apparent trajectories to change pretty dramatically over the next few months. We shall see.
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Old 01-04-2008, 04:43 PM   #332
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NO IT ISN'T!!

What religion someone is is not important to me. What is important is their positions on things like abortion, gay marriage or the death penalty, which often stem from principles found in the Bible.
Hmmm, not important to me since I don't consider those issues (save for death penalty) as matters for secular politics.
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Old 01-04-2008, 04:46 PM   #333
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Originally posted by yolland

I doubt that Hillary ever had the white female Democratic vote (which seems to be what they're talking about) securely locked up.
I know this is not what you meant....but I know more than one white female Dem who will be voting for Obama just based on looks. Aside from how ridiculous that is...I think there are a lot of women that find Clinton annoying, not just the men.
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Old 01-04-2008, 05:40 PM   #334
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Originally posted by coemgen
Obama took the female vote away from Clinton - is this the result of Oprah? If so, how much will she help in the future?


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Old 01-04-2008, 06:52 PM   #335
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i still say he looks more like a banjo player
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:53 PM   #336
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Quote:
Originally posted by 2861U2


NO IT ISN'T!!

What religion someone is is not important to me. What is important is their positions on things like abortion, gay marriage or the death penalty, which often stem from principles found in the Bible.


you really need to stop and take a look at how Bush speaks to evangelicals through coded language -- he's saying, "not to worry, i'm one of you, so vote for me."

Bush's personal faith was put forward as a reason to vote for him in 2000 and especially in 2004. this is wildly different from Ronald Reagan, who never went to church but gave shout-outs to the evangelicals. Bush, by contrast, is saying, "don't worry, i'm one of you."

and Romney's mormonism obviously matters to a lot of voters.
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:56 PM   #337
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[q]Also, to the extent that this what-a-shocker! analysis appears(?) to assume that race trumps gender when it comes to what voters are hungering for in a Presidential nominee, I disagree with that; I really think the reverse tends to be true.

[/q]

on this note, i do find it interesting how conservative pundits are saying that the Obama victory means that racism doesn't exist in America.

[q]While Obama definitely confirmed his reputation as the Dems' best orator last night, I did share joyfulgirl's admiration for Edwards' speech[/q]

what is interesting here is that there's no question that Obama, Edwards, and Huckabee are by far the best orators. and Huckabee has a disarming sense of irony that i actually find kind of appealing, and he used it to rather deftly disrobe Romney -- the best line being about how he's like the guy that people work with and Romney is the guy that just fired them, and the nastiest one about mormons believing that Jesus and Satan are brothers.

this, combined with his total ignorance of international affairs, pretty much means he's the logical successor to Bush.
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:19 PM   #338
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
on this note, i do find it interesting how conservative pundits are saying that the Obama victory means that racism doesn't exist in America.
I'm sure a lot of voters--including quite a few who might well or will vote for Obama--would like to think that's what it shows, whether they'd come out and say so or not.
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what is interesting here is that there's no question that Obama, Edwards, and Huckabee are by far the best orators.
Even though I grimaced all the way through what I personally found his thoroughly cloying speech last night, I agree that Huckabee's got the touch when it comes to showing compelling "presence" and coming off well before a crowd. And while I do find him frighteningly clueless on numerous fronts, I certainly don't think the guy's a dummy. Still, I really do think his appeal is limited.

By comparison, I almost felt sorry for Romney when I saw him making his "silver medal" speech last night--yeah he looks 'presidential,' but as soon as he opens his mouth...
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:23 PM   #339
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Originally posted by deep


i still say he looks more like a banjo player
not Gomer Pyle?
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:37 PM   #340
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Originally posted by anitram
I never really got the sense that you were strongly in anyone's corner this time around so I actually didn't think of you when making the post.

Are you decided?
I do not have much respect for Romney.

Of the Republicans, I could live with McCain. I do not find Huckabilly appealing. I am with Deep, though, we could be looking at surprise entry by Bloomberg.


Of the Democrats I am drawn to Obama. He reminds me more and more of Jack Kennedy. Sounds silly but, I recently found out that former Kennedy speech writer Ted Sorenson, has been working with Obama. I could care less about his experience. I think that there is something completely inspiring about him, and I love the fact that the youth of this country seem energized by him. We need the youth to be more active if we 3want to move this country in a new direction.
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:41 PM   #341
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Hillary giving her speech as the person who will bring change to Washington with the same old cast of characters behind her was not believable.

Obama's speech as the voice of change was believable. Obama winning the women''s vote is incredible.

NH being so close to Iowa makes the bounce Obama should get in the polls even more valuable. My past observations of elections are that there was an initial bounce, and then a readjustment. In this case, I think there will be a bounce, but, so few days for the adjustment to occur. Advantage OBAMA
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Old 01-05-2008, 01:42 AM   #342
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I could care less about his experience. I think that there is something completely inspiring about him,
With all due respect, it's attitudes like that that make me fear for the future of the country. Why suddenly is experience not that important? Is it irrelevent just because a guy seems inspiring? When I look at Obama, I see all style and no substance.

We're electing a freakin' president here, not somebody to give a commencement speech.
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Old 01-05-2008, 02:33 AM   #343
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Originally posted by 2861U2


With all due respect, it's attitudes like that that make me fear for the future of the country. Why suddenly is experience not that important? Is it irrelevent just because a guy seems inspiring? When I look at Obama, I see all style and no substance.

We're electing a freakin' president here, not somebody to give a commencement speech.
You know, I'm getting tired of you avoiding this issue...

Honestly, tell me how your canidate's experience is better. McCain failed big time. Your former canidate's experience was shit, so please tell me...
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Old 01-05-2008, 03:51 AM   #344
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I wouldn't describe being governor of Texas for 5 years as "shit" (though I'm sure our resident Texas progressives might have some responses ready for that ), but I do agree it seems a bit odd to bash someone with 7 years' state senate experience and (thus far) 3 years' US senate experience as hopelessly unprepared for the presidency if GWB's resume satisfied you.
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Old 01-05-2008, 05:51 AM   #345
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Of the Democrats I am drawn to Obama. He reminds me more and more of Jack Kennedy.
I've been thinking the same thing! I mean, I'M excited and I don't usually get excited--in this way--about politics!
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